10NL - a set in position

[altruist]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 65/10/54

Sat down with this guy for about 15 hands, unfortunately no reads. Comments? Suggestions?

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players

CO: $11.84
Hero (BTN): $12.95
SB: $21.50
BB: $16.60

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 5♥ 5♠
CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, CO calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) A♦ 6♥ 5♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.05, CO calls $1.05

Turn: ($3.15) 8♥ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.15, CO raises to $6.30, Hero calls $3.15

River: ($15.75) 9♣ (2 players)
CO bets $4.04 all in, Hero calls $4.04

[deucesomething]

not necessary to bet so much on the flop, 1/2-2/3 pot would suffice. shove turn. More often than not you're up against Ax here.

[altruist]

can you explain please why not to bet so much on the flop? if I have the best hand, don't I want more money in the pot?

[deucesomething]

can you explain please why not to bet so much on the flop? if I have the best hand, don't I want more money in the pot?

That flop is relatively safe as far as draws go so unless you're sure villain has Ax you want to bet smallish to induce a call from villain with hopes he'll connect on the turn enough to continue. You want to adjust bet sizes according to board texture.

[altruist]

That flop is relatively safe as far as draws go so unless you're sure villain has Ax you want to bet smallish to induce a call from villain with hopes he'll connect on the turn enough to continue. You want to adjust bet sizes according to board texture.

True, but I don't really see him calling without an ace or a hand he really wants to draw there anyway.

[deucesomething]

With the exception of your opponent holding AA (doubtful) or 66, you have the best possible hand on the flop. The board is safe for your set, therefore, you want to try to slowplay. Betting small gives your opponent more of an incentive to continue. If he has an ace, he will call. He may not give your puny bet any credit and raise you which is certainly what you want. Then you choose an action based on the turn card. In this case, the 8 of hearts creates a few potential draws to a straight/flush, therefore you want to protect your set and raise all-in.

[Keith]

With the exception of your opponent holding AA (doubtful) or 66, you have the best possible hand on the flop. The board is safe for your set, therefore, you want to try to slowplay. Betting small gives your opponent more of an incentive to continue. If he has an ace, he will call. He may not give your puny bet any credit and raise you which is certainly what you want. Then you choose an action based on the turn card. In this case, the 8 of hearts creates a few potential draws to a straight/flush, therefore you want to protect your set and raise all-in.

horrible description that I've highlighted. Since you have the likely best hand at the moment you want to bet enough to build the pot so that it makes it a mistake for the villains to draw as you are offering them the wrong odds to make that draw. But you don't want to bet so much that worse hands (the ones you beat) will fold and it will only be called by hands that beat you ( like AA in this case). Similarly you don't want to bet so little that you offer the villain the correct odds to call and try to make his draw.This is where the 2/3 pot comes in as it offers the villain incorrect odds yet still makes it look attractive to them to try and hit their draw.

[Donachello]

shove turn ldo

[Hoopy]

Please shove the turn for value - don't just call. Also watch your cbet sizing as people will start to notice if you make a PSB with strong hands but only half pot with air.

[Robb]

I've looked at a couple HH's from you, Altruist, and it seems you like the bet pot button. Flop bet sizing will important to learn if you want to be more successful and move up. On dry boards (regardless of what we hold), if we cbet we do it smaller because villain's flatting range is so weak. Without some kind of draw or hand, he'll fold to the psb.

On wet boards with lots of straight draws, flush draws and medium-sized cards (JT98), if we cbet we bet the pot (regardless of what we hold) because lots of hands will have odds to call.

The important point is to bet the board, not your hand. Decide if you want to continue, then ignore your hand and make a bet that will fit his hand, not yours.

I think most 10nl players could be a lot more profitable if they quit thinking about maximizing their earn on THIS hand, and focused more on maximizing the profitabilty of the entire group of hands they play like this. If OP catches the miracle flop, we're losing money. Otherwise, we have to milk some EV out of the times he's got some ragged with potential to reach our best profitability.

[surviva316]

well, okay, but we can get away with SUPER unbalanced bet sizing against described villain, and we ought to. villain's prolly calling with Ax, straight draws, 88+, 76 pretty much regardless of sizing. we're getting Ax's stack regardless (unless the board runs out 4-straighted or something, so we make SLIGHTLY more from these hands when we bet bigger); when he has straight draws, we're obviously gonna have greater EV from giving her a higher price on all streets; when he has 76, see Ax; and 88+, he's prolly going to call X amount of streets regardless of sizing, and he'll definitely call the flop regardless of whether we bet .90 or .60. in the same vein, he'll fold stuff that completely missed regardless of sizing, and regardless of how much we bet with the rest of our range, so we can bet .60 with our air and .90 for value.

if i thought villain were very aggressive and was more like to raise a smaller size bet, then i might bet smaller, but i'm actually MORE inclined to consider this the more and more vulnerable our hand is because we wanna be able to b/3b/get it in with 66 on a T76tt board or something.

[Santo2True]

but surviva, isn't the point that the pot cbet is folding most of villains range?
he checks flop, I'm sure cause at this moment he thinks he's slick and is playing his "huge" Ax hand the best way he knows how... but don't we want to induce the call even against a loose fish like this who also could fold out rag hands?

I guess now that I actually write that out I think I see what you are saying. He probably isn't folding anything on the flop itself as loose as he is. Better to get the money in now incase he's a one street caller and is folding on the turn unimproved?

Next time shove the turn. fish who raise don't fold to shoves. that's how we make monies

[WildBill]

but surviva, isn't the point that the pot cbet is folding most of villains range?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 65/10/54

I don't think we should overthink against an opponent like that. Guy is calling a cbet with any hit, any pocket pair, any ace, any draw (gushot, backdoor FD, backdoor SD).

I'd be shipping as much money in the pot as I can against a megafish like that. Pot flop, pot turn, ship to raise, lose to suckout NH sir.

[oskar]

This has nothing to do with balance. It's just adjusting bet sizes based on how the board texture interacts with our and the villains range.
Against said villain, yeah, whatever... shove turn. Absolutely no point in calling.
You don't want to get into the habit of insta mashing the pot button for value. There are lots of - even winning 100, 200NL regulars who do the same. It's so transparent that even most mega-feesh pick up on that.
In a spot where you cannot get stacks in by the river by betting less than pot - overbet! Lots of villains are not aware how pot size dictates bet sizing, and a 2x pot bet on the flop still looks small to them, while a half pot bet on the river might look huge.

[rpm]

against guys as bad as this i dont mind betting pot purely for value because he calls so wide and we want to be able to get stacks in on later streets. he probably wont react differently to 2/3 or 3/4 pot (either in a vacuum or in later hands you play against him) because he's not likely to notice or care what % of the pot you bet on the flop with a set. i think the point Robb is trying to emphasise is that betting pot with certain hands and not others (which seems to be a trend in the hands you have posted) becomes very predictable and clever opponents will be able to exploit it. however, the point here is that this guy is terrible at poker and will not exploit it. just don't get into a robotic habit of PSBing anything TPTK or stronger, because anyone who's attentive will notice over time and begin to fold top pair second kicker, or whatever.

as for the actual hand, shove it in on the turn imo - your hand is very strong, your opponent sucks, and he's shown that he likes his hand. if you shove and he folds (which i think will very rarely happen because he calls heaps), thats fine, he had shit. he's the idiot for check/minraising and putting 3/4 of his stack in the pot with a hand he was not willing to put the rest in with. he defintely calls with enough one pair and two pair hands to make a shove on the turn +EV.

[Keith]

. i think the point Robb is trying to emphasise is that betting pot with certain hands and not others (which seems to be a trend in the hands you have posted) becomes very predictable and clever opponents will be able to exploit it. however, the point here is that this guy is terrible at poker and will not exploit it. just don't get into a robotic habit of PSBing anything TPTK or stronger, because anyone who's attentive will notice over time and begin to fold top pair second kicker, or whatever.

This guy isn't the only guy at the table though. Theres two other guys at the table with position on the OP and decent stacks. They could well be paying attention and good enough to exploiting the OP even if the guy he's playing in this hand doesn't exploit him.

[rpm]

This guy isn't the only guy at the table though. Theres two other guys at the table with position on the OP and decent stacks. They could well be paying attention and good enough to exploiting the OP even if the guy he's playing in this hand doesn't exploit him.

i assume that you mean exploiting repetitive use od PSB's when we have a strong hand, as the other two players folded preflop in this hand. i dont really see that as much of a problem - for one, i only advocated doing it vs this guy because he wont notice. i daresay almost everyone takes transparent lines with strong hands vs fish because they're the most profitable. if the other guys at the table are perceptive of course we are going to have take their ranges, board texture etc into consideration when we decided cbet sizes vs them, or simply find a new table as soon as the fish leaves.

[Keith]

i assume that you mean exploiting repetitive use od PSB's when we have a strong hand, as the other two players folded preflop in this hand. i dont really see that as much of a problem - for one, i only advocated doing it vs this guy because he wont notice. i daresay almost everyone takes transparent lines with strong hands vs fish because they're the most profitable. if the other guys at the table are perceptive of course we are going to have take their ranges, board texture etc into consideration when we decided cbet sizes vs them, or simply find a new table as soon as the fish leaves.

I mean that Robb was referring to OP regularly using the bet pot button with his strong hands .In this hand the other two guys may well be taking notes on this betting habit he has so that they can exploit him on other hands that session or at a later date.By maximising value on this hand he may be losing value on lots of hands in the future once his thinking opponents have worked out his betting tells.

[PlayToWin]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 65/10/54

We know this guy's bad preflop. He limps, calls, and rarely bets. You might say he's passive.

What kind of hand does he call a pot bet on flop, and c/r another pot bet on T? Does he do this w/2 pair?

At some point, I'd like to see what he showed.

[rpm]

i think this guys range for checkraising the turn is A5+,66,77,88,56,67,78,68,79


Board: Ad 6h 5c 8h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.269% 80.27% 00.00% 5545 0.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 19.731% 19.73% 00.00% 1363 0.00 { 88-66, A5s+, 97s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A5o+, 97o, 86o+, 76o, 65o }

even if we remove all the onepair/straight draw hands and leave him only two pairs, sets, and straights:


Board: Ad 6h 5c 8h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.901% 61.90% 00.00% 1498 0.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 38.099% 38.10% 00.00% 922 0.00 { 88, 66, A8s, A6s-A5s, 97s, 86s, 65s, A8o, A6o-A5o, 97o, 86o, 65o }

[rpm]

but you wont use the same strategy vs them. that's the thing. because you are playing heads up against someone who sucks at poker, almost every hand played heads up vs this guy should be considered in a vacuum imo, whereas vs thinking opponents you need to balance your ranges and deceive a lot more. as i said, if the guys that are observing the hand are any good (good enough to spot and exploit said tendencies) they probably take the same lines vs fish with strong hands too, because they are the most profitable ones. and even if they do take a note saying "PSB = strength" or whatever, then they're misleading themselves because in the majority of hands we are going to balance our betsizes far better and take into consideration board texture, our perceived range, villain's range, potential bluff outs etc etc. i see exactly where you're coming from, but i think this hand is an exception to the general rule that you should attempt to balance your ranges to prevent opening yourself up to exploitation, because A) this guy will never exploit you, and B) if the people capable of exploiting you do take a note, their note will be wrong anyway, because this is a non-standard situation where we take the line most profitable vs our fish regardless of betsizing tells, range balance etc. if this hand was against a (presumably thinking) BB caller, i'd probably bet like .85 on the flop because he expects me to an a shitload of A-high boards, and i get value from any Ax he has as well as any pairs 77+ he might peel with and any middling SCs. on this particular turn i'd bet like 2.75 because alot of his middle SC hands have a lot of equity, or two pairs, and i probably never get another street from say 88-TT anyway (especially if a J,Q,or K falls). Ax might also come along. my point is that against anyone who is a decent player, i take far more into consideration when sizing my bets - their range, my perceived range, board texture and how that affects their range etc. vs a fish i'm quite happy to bet pot on 3 streets with a strong hand because thats (arguably) the best way to make the most money off this guy, and he's never going to use that information against me in the future (hence the play we think most profitable in any given hand considered in isolation, is the most profitable play we can make)

that was long, and probably quite convoluted and repetitive. hopefully there is some sense in there though.