AQs agression against flushdraw on flop

[c4ptain_obv]

------------------
VP: 32/call PFR: 15/ AFq 67
fold to CB 1/1
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over 25 hands


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($11.26)
BB ($10)
MP ($10.38)
Button ($9.90)
Hero (UTG) ($10.81)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, A
Hero bets $0.40, MP calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 7, 9, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, MP raises $1.50, Hero?

Spots like these always tend to make me spew. I don't know what it is but I always feel like I should shove in these spots because 'I still have some equity if they call' + 'I have fold-equity'. To be honoust I'm very confused about it so I would apreciate if you guys can tell me what you would do in this spot.

thank you

PS: I know that I have to put him on a range and I always try to do that, but I would appreciate it if for this time you guys could tell me what your think his range is on the flop and what you think he's calling/folding.

[NightGizmo]

Any reads or stats?

[surviva316]

Refer to guideline #2 here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-162741.html

surviva for mod imo, 'cause this shit's easy

[c4ptain_obv]

woops, forgot to include them. @surviva lol

[spoonitnow]

Remember that the question isn't whether 3-betting the flop is profitable or not. The question is whether it's better to 3-bet or to call.

Also, don't reveal results (like you did in the title).

[spoonitnow]

Refer to guideline #2 here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-162741.html

surviva for mod imo, 'cause this shit's easy

YouTube - My favorite line from Any Given Sunday

We made this shit real fuckin simple.

[c4ptain_obv]

Remember that the question isn't whether 3-betting the flop is profitable or not. The question is whether it's better to 3-bet or to call.

Also, don't reveal results (like you did in the title).

Uhu, maybe thats why I'm confused. I have done a lot of calculations on hands like these and most of the time I came up +EV for a shove (so I did it in future hands), but at the same time I felt like a shove is so unnecesary.

How did I reveal results? (I meant agression from him)

[NightGizmo]

You're getting great odds from the pot, the board has a lot of ways to improve your hand, and you could end up with the nuts when your opponent has a set or straight, in which case you will stack him. Additionally, you can save part of your stack if the wrong cards fall (if the board pairs up here, I would try to put in as little money as possible). Call and see what the turn brings.

If the turn is a blank or even an A or Q, it's probably a good spot to b/f.

[Tasha]

Remember that the question isn't whether 3-betting the flop is profitable or not. The question is whether it's better to 3-bet or to call.

I have Hero's equity after the flop against the top 15% of hands as 60%.
That points to betting, no?

[NightGizmo]

I have Hero's equity after the flop against the top 15% of hands as 60%.
That points to betting, no?

You can't just blindly select 15% in pokerstove and use that for an opponent's range. For example, do you really think that he will raise with As9s? That's in the top 15% of hands, but it's not likely to be in his raising range on this board.

I think spoon asked about maximizing EV because: if we raise then we will probably fold out a lot of the draws the villain has (straights, weaker flushes, combos) and he will continue with sets, the odd two-pair (T9s?), and maybe top pair (maybe). If he calls, our equity plummets and then if the third club hits our villain may shut down.

But if we call and keep all of his draws in his range, we have a good chance of hitting our nut flush and, at the same time, letting the villain hit a weaker flush or straight, in which case we will almost certainly stack him.

This is discussed in NL:TaP on page 53, "Don't Take Away Their Rope".

[nonofyobiz]

This is discussed in NL:TaP on page 53, "Don't Take Away Their Rope".

whuts that?

Aiight i'll do the range exercise ...bc...lord knows i need it

I think this is as loose a range as u can give this guy, dunnno if I misses something tho. Lots of pairs + OESD, or FD, or flush re-draws

JJ-99,77,AcKc,AdTd,AhTh,AsTs,KcQc,KcJc,KTs,QcTc,JcTc, J8s,T8s+,97s,86s,ATo,J8o,T8o+,9d8c,9h8c,9s8c,97o,8 6o

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.882% 39.59% 00.29% 36845 269.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 60.118% 59.83% 00.29% 55676 269.50 { JJ-99, 77, AcKc, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KcQc, KcJc, KTs, QcTc, JcTc, J8s, T8s+, 97s, 86s, ATo, J8o, T8o+, 9d8c, 9h8c, 9s8c, 97o, 86o }

is the pot $3.95 and we are calling another $1.50?
The HH said "raises $1.50" and I think some others say "raises to $1.50"
just wondering.

if so then pot odds are 2.63:1?

I prob just call here and re eval on the turn. There are lots of cards on the turn that are bad for us. 6,8,J (non club) and any 7,9,10 may make it hard to play even if we hit the flush. If we hit the A or Q I would play it pretty passively, c/c or fold to big bet/shove - maybe a little value bet on the river if I feel like he's got a pair but missed the straight.

[OngBonga]

With VPIP at 32, I'm thinking he can hit any 2pr on this flop with like 97s, he might flop the nuts, fd w/2 overs (KJ maybe?), overpair or top pair/straight draw type hands (JT).

Here's my range results...

Board: 7c 9c Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.630% 54.30% 00.33% 45691 280.00 { JJ-77, ATs, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, QTs, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 45.370% 45.04% 00.33% 37899 280.00 { AcQc }

Now we're clearly getting the right price to see another card, and like has been pointed out, there's plenty enough hands here that stack off if we hit the nuts, so implied odds are significant.

I really don't like his raise on the flop. It's a terrible value bet, he's offering pot odds of better than 4:1 on a very draw heavy board. I can't imagine he's flopped the nuts here unless he has the fd too, nor do I suspect a set, because that should be betting much stronger on this flop. I suspect a draw with maybe a pair, so I call this spot and hope we're both club drawing and it falls. I don't like to 3bet because we can't stand too much more heat on this flop. What if he 4bets us? We're then dangerously close to stacking off with a deep stack with just under 50% equity. With the dead money of course it's probably breaking even, but I don't like to stack off a deep stack with a fd on the flop, so 3betting is dangerous when we have more to gain by seeing the turn, imo.

*edit
Of course K9 clubs is not in his range, ever, in this spot. Sorry about that oversight!

[bhaley66]

whuts that?

Basically make them play correct. If you bet too much in a situation where they are likely to call a smaller bet, and both ways would be a mistake for them, but the large bet, they are not likely to call, bet the smaller amount to encourage them to make the mistake... Deny them the proper odds, but make it tempting.

[nonofyobiz]

Basically make them play correct. If you bet too much in a situation where they are likely to call a smaller bet, and both ways would be a mistake for them, but the large bet, they are not likely to call, bet the smaller amount to encourage them to make the mistake... Deny them the proper odds, but make it tempting.

No i meant like is that a book or something?

[bhaley66]

lol, oh ya, its No Limit Hold'Em: Theory and Practice by: David Sklansky, and Ed Miller

[NightGizmo]

It's a good book -- I highly recommend reading it.

Personally, I think there are a lot more draws in this villain's range than you give him credit for. However, the less draws there are, the less EV you get from raising because your fold equity goes down and you are behind his continuing range.

Here is my estimate on his range when he raises us, which we have 58% against:
QQ-77,ATs,A8s,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,Kc6c,Kc5c,Kc4c,Kc3c,Kc2c ,QJs,JcTc,98s,87s,AsKs,ATo,KQo,QJo

If you raise, I think he continues with (giving us 40% equity):
QhQd,JhJc,TT-77,JcTc,Tc9c,9h8h,9s8s,AdTh,AdTs

If you 3bet with these estimated ranges and the money goes all in (which will probably happen if he doesn't fold), it's about breakeven EV (feel free to do the math and make sure I'm right). Calling and stacking when you hit your flush will show a profit in the long run.

[Icanhastreebet]

flat flops, lead like 1/5 pot on turn, pokers easy.

[supa]

Villains range pre is obviously pretty wide, I'll leave it to those better than me to put him on range that he might min raise with. I'd say he's probably ahead of us right now.

Shoving seems inappropriate to me because only better hands are calling. We obviously have pot odds to call but the question becomes whether or not we're gonna call the turn, or even the river if we hit tptk. Check this out if you haven't already...

an article worth reading that has some relevance on the plan your hands front - written by someone who is actually decent at poker
Implied Betting :Suited Aces

the redline comment is interesting...

I just read this lastnight so it might not be as relevant here as I think, but the op has me thinking about it and some discussion on the matter couldn't hurt.

[OngBonga]

"...but the question becomes whether or not we're gonna call the turn..."

Well, this is simply a question of pot odds, no? If he bets the turn hard after a blank, then we fold. If he bets, say 1/3 to 1/2 the pot, we try to decide if our A or Q is live, and we try to determine if the implied odds exist. Yeah for sure we're behind at this flop, I think most draws he can have here are likely to have paired too, but if we have A and Q to draw on and give us more equity, then we're rarely worse off than a flip, and without the A/Q we're never worse than 30% if we're seeing both cards. In a turbo mtt I'd shove this for sure, but this is cash.

If we hit top pair only, I think I c/c this to showdown most times, there's enough pair/draws in his range that he might continue to fire with for me to think this is profitable.

[bhaley66]

"...but the question becomes whether or not we're gonna call the turn..."

Well, this is simply a question of pot odds, no?

Read the rest of the sentence...

[Pioneer]

This is a fantastic spot to shove when he CR.
This is exactly what you want to happen with a big draw, bet he raises and then shove - you get all the dead money in the pot when he folds and you have at least 45% equity vs. his all in Range (so you don't lose any money when he calls) and not that it matters at 10c NL but it balances the time you want to do it with a set or big hand on draw heavy board.

[Micro2Macro]

with over $3 in the pot at this point given stacks I get it in.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

It seems like basically everyone in this thread has missed the last step in deciding what to do in this spot. I'll give you a hint: we're trying to figure out if x > or < y.

You actually don't even need to do much math to figure it out, it's pretty straight forward.

[!Luck]

Do we really need to balance in this spot. Why not just call?

[Robb]

Shoving seems inappropriate to me because only better hands are calling.

I dislike the logic here. Every bluff has the feature that only better hands will call it, yet they are an essential part of poker strategy. Much more so the semi-bluff, where we have draw-equity if a better hand does call.

Therefore, it seems we would need a better reason for not shoving than "only better hands will call."

I may take a stab at my own analysis of the actual hand later this evening, because it doesn't look like anyone's taken spoon's challenge seriously, the one where we compare the EV of the two lines in question using range estimates and the stove. And I'm rusty and out of practice.

[supa]

Robb, you're right about this obv. I didn't state my point about not raising very well so I'll try to do that now. Keep in mind that almost all off my experience is from 2nl so mindsets at 10nl might be radically different, idk.

What I should have said is that with villains min-raise, I'd expect him to have a very strong hand that he's not folding on this flop. So imo, we wouldn't be bluffing but betting for value, and since we know we're behind in the hand we'd be making a mistake value betting.

So, I'll make an attempt to put him on a range. Since we don't know what he 3bets pre I'll assume that he 3bets AA, KK, and flats w/ 66-QQ, and most broadways. On the flop I think his raising range might be a bit wide normally but with the min-raise I suspect he's either very strong or on a strong draw also. he may also do this with overpairs so I'll keep in JJ, QQ.

Damn, fail, my pokerstove hates me as with all things computer related. I can't get the text but we basically have 38% equity. Anyway, I'm off task and my general point was that we aren't bluffing on flop because we aren't making him fold very often.

Hopefully this makes sense. I invite you to show me my errors.

[edit] Thought I should say that w/ only 25 hands I'm not giving much credit to his afq, if any at all.

[jaytoi]

What if say the board is Q98 tt and we have AcKc, does our decision to shove or flat change then?

[supa]

What if say the board is Q98 tt and we have AcKc, does our decision to shove or flat change then?

We still flat imo, but understand that I'm still trying to learn here. Also that I'm not playing these stakes.

[supa]

And obv M2M advocates shoving so I must be way off.

[NightGizmo]

Well, I was wrong about a shove -- it is +EV (at least, if you use the ranges from my previous post).

Pot = 3.95
To call = 1.50
Stacks after call = 7.73
Villain's flop raise range = 7.7% of hands
Villain's call flop 3bet range = 2.4% of hands
Likelihood he folds = 1 - 2.4/7.7 = 68.8%
Our equity if he calls = 40.25%

Assuming we are shoving here, to make the math simpler.

EV:villain folds: .688*3.95 = 2.72
EV:villain calls, we win: (1-.688)*.4025*11.68 = 1.47
EV:villain calls, we lose: (1-.688)*.5975*-9.23 = -1.72
TOTAL: 2.72 + 1.47 - 1.72 = 2.47

I also played with the numbers in excel, and as long as he folds at least 17.25% of the time, a shove is +EV.

The EV calculation for a call is pretty complicated, I'll get back to it later and see if I can untangle it. I need to figure out all the different possibilities to calculate. But it turns out a shove is actually pretty good here.

[paratrooper99]

Shove is definitely +EV. Club comes on turn, you get no more money unless he has KcXc and it will be limited. Board is paired on turn, you start to second guess a shove on turn, play slows and you can be outplayed. Any straight connector comes and you slow down. Ace or queen hits and you can shove but your fold equity go down dramatically because his range is face cards as well. The bottom line is that the turn is not going to be your friend. Ship it now and that is the only +EV move I see.