Well, I was wrong about a shove -- it is +EV (at least, if you use the ranges from my previous post).

Pot = 3.95
To call = 1.50
Stacks after call = 7.73
Villain's flop raise range = 7.7% of hands
Villain's call flop 3bet range = 2.4% of hands
Likelihood he folds = 1 - 2.4/7.7 = 68.8%
Our equity if he calls = 40.25%

Assuming we are shoving here, to make the math simpler.

EV:villain folds: .688*3.95 = 2.72
EV:villain calls, we win: (1-.688)*.4025*11.68 = 1.47
EV:villain calls, we lose: (1-.688)*.5975*-9.23 = -1.72
TOTAL: 2.72 + 1.47 - 1.72 = 2.47

I also played with the numbers in excel, and as long as he folds at least 17.25% of the time, a shove is +EV.

The EV calculation for a call is pretty complicated, I'll get back to it later and see if I can untangle it. I need to figure out all the different possibilities to calculate. But it turns out a shove is actually pretty good here.