4bet Shoving AKo Pre-Flop-Line check

[Openside]

Villain is 44/9 over 231. Villain is pretty maniacal with a whiff of a hand post flop. Three hands of significance; one, raised flop 10x and shoved turn with TPBK, two, 3bet PF and shoved turn with gut shot straight draw, and three, shoved flop with TP (TT) and a flush draw.
Villain likes to 3 bet preflop (8% IP). I have folded my opening raise several times to his 3bet.
I think this shove is pretty standard, but i tanked for an age bc i am a nitard. I have blockers to KK/AA so at worst im facing QQ. Putting him on QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ I have 51% equity plus a ton of fold equity.

I dont like flatting bc he is shoving the flop for certain.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($4.86)
Hero (UTG) ($6.18)
UTG+1 ($10.69)
MP1 ($4.88)
MP2 ($4.75)
CO ($6.03)
Button ($5)
SB ($3.33)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A
Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 raises to $2.86, 6 folds, Hero tanks and raises to $6.18 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $3.32

[Hoopy]

This hand is played fine, why are you worrying abut it?

[Arjonius]

If you assume his 3-bet range is the top 8-10%, you're likely somewhere around 55-60%, so yes, shoving is fine unless you have some indication, e.g. from his bet size, that he's up to something unusual.

[kmind]

Depends on what kind of ranges you give him but if it's TT+/AQ+ it's a slight fold. If you add 22-99 in there it's more of a fold. The only way it would become profitable if he's shoving more hands we dominate such as AJ/AT.

[caddie444]

I have blockers to KK/AA so at worst im facing QQ... plus a ton of fold equity.

Yes you have blockers but AA/KK are still in his range

You have almost zero fold Equity

[philly and the phanatics]

Yes you have blockers but AA/KK are still in his range

You have almost zero fold Equity

i agree he has 0 fold equity

i think even with just the blinds and our initial 4bb bet we have enough dead money to shove with our 49.175 % equity vs TT+AQ+

[kmind]

philly - that'd be slightly -EV. I suck at math but I've run it through CardrunnersEV. I gave 0 FE of course.

[philly and the phanatics]

philly - that'd be slightly -EV. I suck at math but I've run it through CardrunnersEV. I gave 0 FE of course.

i am not trying to hate, but here is my math, idk maybe someone else could point out what im doing wrong.

Our hand has 49.175% equity vs TT+ AQ+

A)49.175% of the time we win his effective stack (6.18) and the pot (.27)
B)50.825% of the time we lose 5.98 (our stack - our initial 4bb bet)

so A ends up being 3.1717
and B ends up being 3.039

if you subtract B from A, you get $ .13

In other words you would win 2.6bb every time you did this (pretty high variance play imo)


again im not posting this to like "show up cardrunners ev" rather to figure out where im going wrong

edit- maybe cardrunners ev takes rake into account, in which case i guess this could be -ev slightly

[JKDS]

Villain is 44/9 over 231. Villain is pretty maniacal with a whiff of a hand post flop. Three hands of significance; one, raised flop 10x and shoved turn with TPBK, two, 3bet PF and shoved turn with gut shot straight draw, and three, shoved flop with TP (TT) and a flush draw.

Knowing the actual hands he did this with is much more important than his flop actions, because his raise size is such that the money gets in on the flop or pre regardless of who he is really. However, knowing his hands that he's maniacal with helps us find a 3bet range.

Obv, he needs to have worse A's or K's in his range for us to put money in

[Donachello]

I snap fold pre and don't think another thing about this hand. Putting in over 100BB vs a raising nit UTG vs UTG+1 with AKo is atrocious. As caddie mentioned we have literally 0 FE and that's the only reason stacking off with AK preflop is fine in a normal situation. The FE.

[Openside]

Yes you have blockers but AA/KK are still in his range

You have almost zero fold Equity

I think you have found a hole in my logic. Based upon the premise that his 3bet range =/= his calling range, if we assign a 3bet range of 22+, AQs+, AKs+ (138 combos) and a calling range of QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ (50 combos) dont we have 63% Fold EV? ([138-50]/138).

Your saying his 3bet range = Calling range, deduced from his bet sizing?

Depends on what kind of ranges you give him but if it's TT+/AQ+ it's a slight fold. If you add 22-99 in there it's more of a fold.

I am missing something here. If Fold EV = (3betRange-CallRange)/3betRange, if we increase his 3bet range our Fold EV increases. How can increasing his 3bet range make it "more of a fold"?

[philly and the phanatics]

I think you have found a hole in my logic. Based upon the premise that his 3bet range =/= his calling range, if we assign a 3bet range of 22+, AQs+, AKs+ (138 combos) and a calling range of QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ (50 combos) dont we have 63% Fold EV? ([138-50]/138).

Your saying his 3bet range = Calling range, deduced from his bet sizing?



I am missing something here. If Fold EV = (3betRange-CallRange)/3betRange, if we increase his 3bet range our Fold EV increases. How can increasing his 3bet range make it "more of a fold"?

ok a couple of things

1st - its fold equity no fold ev

2nd- While he may be 3betting 8% and not stacking off with that whole 8%, its highly unlikely he is doing it with that sizing, so unless you have seen him 3bet this size with the bottom of his range, then i would not assume this is like 22 here.

3rd- on a similar note, unless you have seen him 3bet/fold this sizing before i think its a lot safer to assume he is never folding to a shove

4th- Kmind is not just including 22-99 in his 3betting range, but also in his 4bet calling range. When examining our equity (pot equity not fold equity) we notice that as we add in more hands like 22-99 (hands that are beating AK preflop) then we have even less pot equity than if he just had TT+ AQ+ DUCY?

[Openside]

ok a couple of things

1st - its fold equity no fold ev

Sorry, wrong terminology Is my math correct tho, assuming those ranges?

2nd- While he may be 3betting 8% and not stacking off with that whole 8%, its highly unlikely he is doing it with that sizing, so unless you have seen him 3bet this size with the bottom of his range, then i would not assume this is like 22 here.

I follow.

3rd- on a similar note, unless you have seen him 3bet/fold this sizing before i think its a lot safer to assume he is never folding to a shove

bet sizing is the white elephant missing from my logic in this hand.

4th- Kmind is not just including 22-99 in his 3betting range, but also in his 4bet calling range. When examining our equity (pot equity not fold equity) we notice that as we add in more hands like 22-99 (hands that are beating AK preflop) then we have even less pot equity than if he just had TT+ AQ+ DUCY?

Ah ok, i knew i was misunderstanding kminds point. I understood it reduced our pot equity but was too focused on my overweighted Fold equity.

[deucesomething]

Has he always been 3betting you this huge IP? If he's an uberdonk who likes to pull that kind of stuff frequently this would be a no brainer ship

[Donachello]

I have never ever seen a 44/9 that 3bet correctly. Therefore it is safe to assume that the 8% 3bet is probably not going to = the 8% that you gave him. Additionally, a 200 hand sample is never going to give solid 3bet stats so you're better off ignoring that and just looking at two things.
1) you have the bottom of your stacking off range over 100B deep in early position.
2) his 3bet size indicates he is NEVER folding his hand.

Now let me ask you this. What sort of hands is he NEVER folding preflop?

[Openside]

I have never ever seen a 44/9 that 3bet correctly. Therefore it is safe to assume that the 8% 3bet is probably not going to = the 8% that you gave him. Additionally, a 200 hand sample is never going to give solid 3bet stats so you're better off ignoring that and just looking at two things.
1) you have the bottom of your stacking off range over 100B deep in early position.
2) his 3bet size indicates he is NEVER folding his hand.

Now let me ask you this. What sort of hands is he NEVER folding preflop?

My answer is going to be biased because i know the outcome, but here goes, conservatively i'd say he is NEVER folding QQ+, which i am a mile behind with 33% equity. In the moment i was shoving or folding, def. not flatting. Now that i think about it more with input, this bet sizing is not to steal. He thinks im calling and wants to get paid. I shoved because i erroneously concluded that i was approx 50/50 if he had <=QQ + FE + worse Ax.

[supa]

In general I fold to 3bets oop w/ AKo unless he's a hyper maniac thats shoving alot.

@Openside, it sounds like you're a little tilted about his 3betting your raises. Wait for better spots against these guys. Remember that although this isn't 2nl it's still the micros and that beating the micros doesn't require stacking off pre, 100bb deep, with AKo.

[tyrn]

In general I fold to 3bets oop w/ AKo unless he's a hyper maniac thats shoving alot.

@Openside, it sounds like you're a little tilted about his 3betting your raises. Wait for better spots against these guys. Remember that although this isn't 2nl it's still the micros and that beating the micros doesn't require stacking off pre, 100bb deep, with AKo.

Lots of people, not only hyper maniacs, 3bet with AQ or other aces, especially in position. Key is to figure out which players are doing it and which ones only have JJ+, AK. "In general" folding is not the best since you're missing out on a lot of spots that you can be dominating.

[supa]

Lots of people, not only hyper maniacs, 3bet with AQ or other aces, especially in position. Key is to figure out which players are doing it and which ones only have JJ+, AK. Generally folding is not the best since you're missing out on a lot of spots that you can be dominating.

I don't have a tracker, maybe some of you guys could filter your winrate for AKo, oop in 3bet pots?

[spoonitnow]

I'm close to locking this thread. Wrap it up.

[supa]

I'm close to locking this thread. Wrap it up.

Your 2c first?

[spoonitnow]

Your 2c first?

I think it's a fold and that it's only close to some people because they think HOLY SHIT AK.

[Icanhastreebet]

he obviously misclicked, ship it.












































































lol jaykay fold u morans

[Ramirez21]

So I'm new here and this may be a newb question, but don't you know his cards for hands #1 and #2 you described? Isn't that important? Wouldn't that help you define his 3bet range at least? Also, what preflop action did he give with hand #3?

[lukem1990uk]

Standard !