Profiling Villains (Robb's 800th post)

[Robb]

I was planning something a bit more grand for my 800th FTR post. But profiling villains is important. And I don't do it enough.

Just sat down with PT2, cranked up my half-million hand database filtered for nl25 players (focused on 6max), went to the "Summary" tab, and sorted based on number of hands. From there, I picked out a villain with 1k+ hands who I've seen a bit recently and who has a positive win rate. Why profile serial donators?

Here's the profiling notes I have after five minutes of glancing through his stats, which I will copy-paste into my poker site's notes box when I see him next:

Villain is 21/16/4 over 1.5k hands (all are 6max):
PA (11/11 - 30/24)*, Steals, ~Def, OvPL SB**
Plays big cards, avoids bad aces and sc's
Limps 66, QTs, A8s
CCs sm pp's EP
ORs pp's, all BW, A8+, A7s+, K9s, J8s+, T9s+

The abbreviations in the top row mean...
PA - positionally aware with UTG and BTN stats in ( )
Steals - attempts to steal blinds
~Def - Defends blinds
OvPL SB - Overplays SB, meaning way too loose

Range abbreviations are OR (open raise) and CC (cold calls or flatting).

The stars ( * ) or asterisks bump the note "higher", the "tilda" lowers it (~ means somewhat, or meh). The "steals" note means attempts to steal 20 - 25%; if higher, it would have *. If it were more than 30%, it would have a double ** . The PA note would have a star except this guy plays nearly 30% of hands out of the SB, probably his biggest leak.

Kind of a check plus, check minus grading scale. I use the general tab preflop filters to quickly assess his limping/flatting/raising ranges preflop. Note that the extra wide open raising hands are mostly from the BTN.

This is an interesting villain. See the note about "big cards"? It helps define how this guy thinks about poker, and what kind of hands he likes to play. Other opening styles you'll see at the micros are:

Aces - can't lay down a bad ace
Sooted - loves stuff like Q2s
SC's /Gappers - loves to play the 76s, 97s kind of hands

Knowing how his 22% VPiP "leans" is important and will let us attack him with precision. Examples of good lines against him.

1. Limp on the BTN after 1 or more limpers when he's in the SB and we normally would have raised in blind/limp steal mode - he's too loose and will come along with garbage, so (as long as BB is passive) we can virtually guarantee ourselves 2 more limpers in the pot - great for small pp's and sc's where we want to see a cheap flop.

2. 3bet him preflop with sc's like 87s. If he flats, he's almost guaranteed to behind when we catch a piece of a flop like T73 rainbow. Might have TT, but that's a risk we'll have to take.

3. Avoid playing bad aces against him for value. He only seems to play good aces, so only attack with A7s with the understanding it's just a blind steal. He'll be dangerous on a AJ3 flop, especially if he bets oop.

All right. That's my two cents. Here's your HW assignment:
1. Profile a villain you have 1,000+ hands on, and post it in this thread.
2. Offer some abbreviations you use to make your notes
3. List some of the Big Mistakes you make notes about
4. Give examples of exploitive play that focus on a profile you've done yourself or seen someone else do in this thread.

[Ovaltine88]

Woah, very in depth analysis, I always wonder how online players would adjust to live, how would y'all play without the stats live?

Do you guys think I can grind up to 4k-6k bankroll maybe 200NL without using poker tracker or any HUDs? My goal is to become a successful live player, min casino buyin is 200. with 1/2 blinds. About how long would that take?

[Robb]

I always wonder how online players would adjust to live, how would y'all play without the stats live?

Live reads are different, sure, but you have a ton more info than online. Online is more mathematical and historical with fewer "tells". You can't see them sweating or hear "the speech" or see the bad acting. So the HUD is what we have to go on. Lots of HUD users play live games, too, and they seem to do fine.

Do you guys think I can grind up to 4k-6k bankroll maybe 200NL without using poker tracker or any HUDs?

Sure, the game's not unbeatable. But it will take longer, especially without PT or HM. These tools help us plug our own leaks. For example, I found a big leak in my 25nl game in about 5 minutes the other day: playing the SB too loose. Storing those HH's (I have about 150,000 of my hands of poker stored in PT2 right now, available for studying) and having a tool like PT or HM is vital for learning the game, even if you don't use a HUD. And a HUD is essential for multitabling, which most of us do. I don't always play 12 tables of 6max, but I couldn't ever do it without a HUD. It helps maximizes your earning rate once you're sure you have the solid ABC game at a level.

My goal is to become a successful live player, min casino buyin is 200. with 1/2 blinds. About how long would that take?

A solid win rate online is 5ptBB/100 hands which equates to a buy-in every thousand hands. If you have rakeback, it adds about a quarter of a buy-in every 1k hands. All this varies a lot and is much tougher to do at 100nl than 10nl.

At 10nl where I'm a consistent winner playing 12tables of 6max, my earn rate's about $8 an hour (without including rakeback). I can play 600 - 750 hands an hour. PokerTracker actually calculates this for you, so you know what to expect over the weeks and months of grinding.

If you want to grow a seriously big bankroll, tools like PT and a HUD will speed up the process and more than pay for themselves. BTW, 4-6k may not be enough, depending on the games your playing.

Final answer about building a bankroll, it depends on how much you start with, how good you are, how many hours you have to play each day, how much you study and learn.

[mrhappy333]

Robb Nice post. This is good info.

Do you guys think I can grind up to 4k-6k bankroll maybe 200NL without using poker tracker or any HUDs?

Sure do, because I've done it! I don't use PT or HUD, and never plan on using them in the future. I don't use them when I play live, so why do I need them online? I'll probably get flamed for this but whatever.

[Robb]

Do you guys think I can grind up to 4k-6k bankroll maybe 200NL without using poker tracker or any HUDs?

Sure do, because I've done it! I don't use PT or HUD, and never plan on using them in the future. I don't use them when I play live, so why do I need them online? I'll probably get flamed for this but whatever.

If you get flamed, ppls are out of line. Miffed hasn't been around the Beginner's Forum in a while, but he's one the main proponents of NOT using HUD's at the micros. He thinks you need to learn to read the game without them. He argues that you learn better, faster without a HUD.

I disagree, as do some others. Many of the 50nl - 200nl grinders use HUD's to multitable 10 - 20 tables at a time, depending on the person. I will say this. I play MANY fewer tables when I'm playing a new level or a new site. I'm a math geek, so all the numbers and patterns help me learn the game better and faster. And I live in Bumf**k East in the middle of the Bible Belt south, with no casino within 8 hours or live games closer than an hour. Since online is about all I do, the HUD makes sense. I don't have many prospects of playing when I can't use it.

But know this. Very few of the high limit players use a HUD, since there the opponents can all vary their games based on players, stack sizes, recent hands and other conditions. So a HUD and history means a lot less. Most of them (according to their posts in the high stakes forum) know lots of their opponents pretty well and can pretty well pwn the ones who rely too much on HUD's.

At the limits I play, most players are very robotic. So the HUD reads can help. And villain profiling is even better, where you take apart their game offline and make specific notes about how to exploit them. For the villain I profiled above, I will have almost zero chance of making a big mistake against him. He'll take some big pots down when he hits his sets and I make a hand, but I'll get out of his way when I'm beat the vast majority of the time. And I'll be able to pick spots to stack him and steal small pots.

Also, something I'm learning is that for each villain I profile, I learn about a whole range of villains who play a similar style. I learned about ranges and how various ppl play the different types of hands by watching the replayer in PT. Playing well against any single opponent means careful observation, either digital or analog, but preferably both.

Ha! I don't know why I even post. You've just explained why I don't use PT/HUD to a "T" and better than I ever could.

[jyms]

Robb? if this is on Stars, you can do the notes right in PT and improt them to Stars. If not, use an AHK notes script so ther is no Cut/Paste.

[donnybaker]

I don't use them when I play live, so why do I need them online?

Playing live you get far more nonverbal information just being at the table.

Playing online 6 or more tables it's tough to pay attention the actions of 36 or more player's simultaneously. It's a tool that's helpful, that's all. The high stakes guys have a much smaller player pool so maybe a hud isn't that useful. Whatever works for you. Nice post robb, I'm going to try this.

[Robb]

Robb? if this is on Stars, you can do the notes right in PT and improt them to Stars. If not, use an AHK notes script so ther is no Cut/Paste.

Fortunately for most of the bankrolls over there, I haven't made my way to stars, yet. :P

[Sup3rM4N]

Robb? if this is on Stars, you can do the notes right in PT and improt them to Stars. If not, use an AHK notes script so ther is no Cut/Paste.

Fortunately for most of the bankrolls over there, I haven't made my way to stars, yet. :P

Let us know what your nickname is once u come to stars. Look forward to playing with you

[Robb]

Robb? if this is on Stars, you can do the notes right in PT and improt them to Stars. If not, use an AHK notes script so ther is no Cut/Paste.

Fortunately for most of the bankrolls over there, I haven't made my way to stars, yet. :P

Let us know what your nickname is once u come to stars. Look forward to playing with you

LoL. I'm ArsenalRocks so far on all sites I play. I'm looking forward to joining Full Tilt this summer and Stars by the end of the year. Right after I grind enough roll to upgrade to HM

[Jack Sawyer]

No HUDs here either, I only use PT to see if I am profiting or not. if I get my money in good or not, obv oonly on sites that do support it.

I tried a HUD for like a day, then I uninstalled that shit and swore it off forever. I play between 4 to 8 tables.


I have no real need to upgrade to PT3 or HM for the foreseeable future.

[Robb]

No HUDs here either, I only use PT to see if I am profiting or not. if I get my money in good or not, obv oonly on sites that do support it.

I tried a HUD for like a day, then I uninstalled that shit and swore it off forever. I play between 4 to 8 tables.


I have no real need to upgrade to PT3 or HM for the foreseeable future.

Jack, nice post. I like the fact that there are lots of ways to be successful at this game, so no noobie has to feel like he needs $180 worth of software to be a winning player.

This profiling idea works fine without PT or HM. Just note the WORST hands you see in villain's range. If you see a Limp/Call with A2s, make a note. If you see a 3bet with 55, make a note. Pretty quick, you'll have almost the same info about their opening ranges and will be able to put them on a range of hands that's VERY precise. The method is not important, but I think noobies need to realize that successful players study not only the game but their regular opponents, whether with notes or with HUD/tracker software - often both.

[mrhappy333]

villain is 18/1.9/1.4 @1550 hands 10NL

My notes made:

Poker Traker = Win $$
Hands All PPs/AK/AJ/Axs/KQs/KJs/QJs/TJs/9Ts all off suit Broadways
No limp reraise
CHK RAISES/ sets/2 pair!!/overpair/
Raises AA/KK/QQ
Cold Calls KK/QQ/sm.PPs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This took all of about 15 minutes using the Filter buttons., for the first time!! Its amazing all the info you can filter.
I can only hope to sit at his table soon. I know his game better than he does now.

[donnybaker]

Here's a quick one. I only have 514 hands on him, so take it fwiw. 6-max 200nl

Villains basic stats are 18/14/2.8
He appears to be pretty nitty.
W$WSF: 37% and W$atSD 73%
Hmm, he isn't getting to showdown without very good hands. Also, he should be easy to push around on earlier streets.
Here's the most surprising. Positional stats by # off the button (VP$IP/PFR)
B: 29/19
1: 23/20
2: 18/17
3: 22/22
BB: 4/2
SB: 12/9

So aside from calling on the button a bit more, this villian is playing most of his non-blind positions the same way. Pretty interesting. This means I can play a lot of hands against him in position.

His Fold SB/BB to steal is 95 and 96 respectively and his att. to steal is 27.
So i will steal his blinds and respect his steals more than most.

I guess if i was going to make and export a note on him I'd put:
plays about 20/20 outside of the blinds (in each postition)
push him off mediochre hands, if he plays back he's got it.

[Ovaltine88]

No HUDs here either, I only use PT to see if I am profiting or not. if I get my money in good or not, obv oonly on sites that do support it.

I tried a HUD for like a day, then I uninstalled that shit and swore it off forever. I play between 4 to 8 tables.


I have no real need to upgrade to PT3 or HM for the foreseeable future.

Jack, nice post. I like the fact that there are lots of ways to be successful at this game, so no noobie has to feel like he needs $180 worth of software to be a winning player.

This profiling idea works fine without PT or HM. Just note the WORST hands you see in villain's range. If you see a Limp/Call with A2s, make a note. If you see a 3bet with 55, make a note. Pretty quick, you'll have almost the same info about their opening ranges and will be able to put them on a range of hands that's VERY precise. The method is not important, but I think noobies need to realize that successful players study not only the game but their regular opponents, whether with notes or with HUD/tracker software - often both.

Thanks, other than that, what other notes is good for reading opponents?

I don't plan on relying on PT or HUDs at all.

[Robb]

Thanks, other than that, what other notes is good for reading opponents?

I don't plan on relying on PT or HUDs at all.

As a noobie, I was always confused about what notes to take on opponents. I finally just quit taking notes for a while. Fnord gave me some stick once about how bad my notes on villains were. And he was right.

So I thought about it. What are notes for? The intention is to convey an advantage the next time or times I play hands against the villain. So I need to make notes of oddities and big mistakes. Something that will stand out and/or lead to huge profit. It's not that you can't note other things, but you don't have time to note every play. And you don't have time read through a hundred notes on villains during a session. So you have to put only valuable info in your notes, or replace less valuable notes with more valuable ones.

Examples.

Odd Play. The limp/rr preflop is very unusual. If villain plays AA this way, but no other hands, we have a huge advantage.

Big Mistakes. I make note of what they'll stack off with. If they c/r all-in on the flop w/ QT on a Txx board, I make a note. I also like to know the weakest hand they'll bet or call all-in with preflop. As soon as I see TT in his all-in range preflop, I know I can profitably shove/call with QQ instead of just w/ AA and KK. If he'll play medium Aces all-in (say ATs), I can call with a pretty wide range of pp's preflop. Since these preflop all-in patterns lead to playing for stacks, they're pretty valuable information to have.

This info is available in analog mode. Digitally, you can sort villain's hands by biggest loss, and watch some HH's to see his top 2 or 3 "stack off" mistakes.

[sarbox68]

Yeah, yeah, yeah... watch villains, take notes, blah blah...

Let's focus on what's really important here... Robb be celebrating dropping his 800th straight sh!t knowledge bomb, most representing some crazy mathematical infused deep contemplations. It's like ISF or Fnord, but at a level closer to what my midget brain can actually partially comprehend... NH and congrats!!!

[Robb]

NH and congrats!!!

Don't insult fnord and ISF that way - LoL!!

Thanks for nh - I try. More folks need to get in the Beginner's Forum and try to post some original thoughts, off-beat stuff, article stuff, etc.

F**k!! POST SOME DAMN RANTS DAMMIT!!!

Lots of the guys successful guys at 50nl and 100nl+ who used to come "slumming" into the Beginner's Forum when I started at FTR 9 months ago aren't around any more. Fnord, nutsinho, XTR and the every-now-and-again Spoony post are about all we have. Gone are guys like eupho, Spenda, Miffed, biondino and an ass ton of others who've been gone so long I've forgotten their names.

I guess it fall to us guys who've been around a while to fire off rants, try for Beginner Level stuff, write article-style posts, and post "teaching style" stuff. I don't know much about poker, but what I do learn I try to post here so others can benefit. If we don't keep posting stuff that noobies can benefit from, who will?

So get to work and post something, Sarbox. I see a nice poker-in-the-hood rant in your future!!

[Erpel]

I think this is a fantastic idea and thread - and I wish I could contribute. I have my excuses lined up though - my computer with my hand history database is dead and it'll take some weeks before I'm up and running as normal again.

Many times I've come across comments along the lines of "Make a note" or "You can make several notes on your opponent based on this hand history" and every time I see it I throw up my hands in despair and ask my wife "Why can't they just say 1) what note they would make on this villain and 2) what adjustments they would make?" - and she's getting tired of me asking her.

I think hands posted for feedback on this forum could benefit from any and all perspectives, analyses and supporting comments. I wish (and I'll try to do this myself) that hand history comments contain the following:
1) Hand reading - set ranges and reduce ranges
2) Commentary on each decision made by Hero - including planning out the hand, commitment plans etc.
3) Relevant pot odds and equity calculations
4) Notes you would take on Villain AND on Hero based on this hand history
5) Adjustments you would make to your play against Villain AND against Hero based on this hand history

Primarily we get feedback along the lines of the first three points, but I think it would be very valuable to have at least the occasional profiling type comment or read based on the single hand - and I think it would be great for the learners here to be told exactly how a thinking player would adjust if playing against them so they can learn to recognize thinking players.

And in either case - I think the idea of profiling villains based on your hand history is an excellent set of exercises for learning players. I hope to build a hand history database again and do at least one of these per day over a period of a couple of months.

[Robb]

Positional stats by # off the button (VP$IP/PFR)
B: 29/19
1: 23/20
2: 18/17
3: 22/22
BB: 4/2
SB: 12/9

His Fold SB/BB to steal is 95 and 96 respectively and his att. to steal is 27.
So i will steal his blinds and respect his steals more than most.

This is good, but I want to note something. Blind steals are the % of times he raised from the CO or BTN when it was limped to him. Since he raises 20% or 21% of his hands (not including blinds) TOTAL, he's not stealing as much as you think he is. He's playing mediocre hands for raises from the BTN and CO, sure, but be careful, here. Wait for something with decent 3betting value like 88 - TT, sc's like 76s, or broadway hands like KJ or JT to take him on. Also, it would be nice to know how he "leans" see my post above. Does he like Big Cards? Any Ace? Soooted cards? sc's? That will determine the types of hands we can "resteal" with.

[Erpel]

Ok, this is something of a bump. I've thought about this thread a lot, and I'm beginning to get some hands in my database again so should be able to do some profiling soon and really contribute. Now, before I move onto my reason for resurrecting this thread I'll just note something which is also stated in some of the reader digest posts that I'm re-reading yet again now.

Playing perfect poker is nowhere near as profitable as exploiting opponents. Always play against weaker opponents. Know how they are weak, know their tendencies, play against them as much as possible and exploit their tendencies to your benefit. Bankroll management, stack sizes, position etc is all important stuff - knowing your opponent is arguably more important.

Now, what caused me to resurrect this thread was this:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...tc-t74214.html

And I guess by extension this:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...em-t70711.html

Aside from the above profiling exercises it may also be beneficial to use profiling exercises as a way to get a deeper and more intuitive understanding of hand ranges (using the ABCD theorem).

As the first linked thread shows us people are trying to determine using PokerStove what a ABCD ranges are against a specific opponents raising range. Some PFR stats are referenced, but we all know that one person with PFR 7 will raise KJs but not 65s where the next person with PFR 7 will go opposite. By deciding on ABCD ranges (including 3b ranges as A) we need to consider the actual PFR range of the opponent in this situation.

Based on my observations of the opponent I'll determine if he's very fond of Ace-high hands, hands with no card lower than T or 9, all connectors suited or not, and whether he limps lower pocket pairs rather than raises them - and use that profiling knowledge as I formulate ABCD ranges against his opening range.

As I do profiling exercises I'll do what JKDS did in that thread - try to think through every possible starting hand and decide where it belongs in the ABCD spectrum based on what I know about the opponents opening range and using PokerStove equity calculations. I may or may not choose to modify the result considering steal equity and implied odds to the extent that PokerStove doesn't already take it into account. As a general point PokerStove will be undervaluing implied odds as it's not taking into account how quickly I'll fold a missed flop - that is that the size of the pots I win are bigger than the size of the pots I lose, but PokerStove basically only tells you how many pots you win and not what size they are.