Spoony Exercise 5: More Exploitation of Known Strategies

Previous Threads in the Series: Exercise 1 (link), Exercise 2 (link), Exercise 3 (link), Exercise 4 (link)

In Exercise 4, we looked at a handful of adjustments to make against common characteristics we'll see in opponents at micro stakes and small stakes. We also touched on the general process of considering our opponent's strategy and deciding how to play against it in general (ie: how we'll play our entire range) before figuring out what we should do with the specific hand we happen to have this time we're dealt cards, and the earlier exercises were to prepare you for this type of thinking.

Here's what we're getting at with all of this. Generally when you're playing poker, you'll see your hand and each time it's your turn to make a decision you try to make the best play you can based off of your hand and the information you're given. This is a logical thought process to follow, but there is another way. If instead you think about how you would like to play your range as a whole first, it makes certain types of decisions much easier, especially on the early streets. It also makes it easier to stick to an exploitive strategy that will force a constant edge over time.

Go into your database and find some hand where you raised pre-flop and only one opponent called, leaving you out of position. You would preferably have a lot of hands on this person (500+) and have a decent idea of what they were calling you down with, how often they raise c-bets, and things of that nature. Ignoring the pocket cards you held, describe the situation and your opponent, and describe your opponent's strategy on the flop against you in this situation. I don't mean so much breaking their range down (though that's fine if you want to do it), but just in general how you think they will play on that board given what you know about them as far as stats and notes go. With that in mind, describe your counter-strategy. That is, describe how you're going to play the flop to take advantage of what you know about their play, and why you're choosing to play your range in that way.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($29.25)
UTG+1 ($31.50)
MP1 ($24.50)
MP2 ($21)
MP3 ($74.70)
CO ($50)
Button ($50)
Hero (SB) ($53.25)
BB ($23.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with some cards
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $3

Flop: ($8) K, 10, 5 (2 players)
Hero ...

So here I'm going to post an example. You can go however more in-depth than this as you want.

My range is something like {99+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ}.

Villain is about 11/5 over about 1000 hands. When facing a raise after limping (which he does frequently), he has folded about 46% of the time, called about 54% of the time, and never limp/raised. Despite being very tight, he is extremely passive, with flop/turn/river AFqs of 27/48/67, a WWSF of under 30%, and a high W$SD. Also despite being so tight, he has a fold to flop c-bet of about 65% and a raise flop c-bet of about 6%.

My strategy to exploit this player's play on this flop would involve bluffing with every hand that missed to take advantage of the weakness of his range (which probably consists of mostly small-middle pocket pairs with the rare/occasional suited connector or big broadway). So all of my missed broadways are being bet. In addition, I would probably need a fairly strong hand to value bet, since his continuing range will be particularly strong. This means I'm checking behind all of my middle pairs, and probably even top pair sometimes. My bet size would probably be in the neighborhood of $5.50-$6.50. I don't need to bet pot since he's going to fold the same hands to a 3/4 psb as he will to full pot, but I think betting much less starts to get more calls from second pairs and that type of shit.

So now let's break down our range in terms of the strategy I described. For value, I should probably bet sets along with some AK (we'll say 50% for example's sake) and KQ of clubs. I'll be bluffing with all of the AQ and AJ. I'll probably check KQ, QQ, JJ, 99, and ATs.

Value bet: 55, TT, KK, AK(50%), KcQc for a total of 22 combinations
Bluffing: AQ, AJ for a total of 32 combinations
Checking: KQ(non-clubs), QQ, JJ, 99, ATs for a total of 32 combinations

Though I could add 99 and ATs to my bluffing range if I wanted, treating them as 2- and 5-out draws, respectively. Hopefully this gives you an idea of what we're looking for with this exercise. Best of luck.

weaktight | Hand Poll | JAo - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem (link)

My range is {88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ} (not trying to copy ;()

Villain is 30/6 over 477 hands. He isn't positionally aware considering his PFR and ATS are both pretty close in %. Rarely limp/folds, have yet to see him limp/reraise. Post flop, his fold to c-bet is 81% so even though he's super loose/passive PF, he gets fairly weak/tight postflop. His WTSD% is 29% over the sample, and his W$SD is 46%. So once he calls the flop, he's typically going to showdown.

Exploiting this guy should be pretty straightforward. Given his high fold to flop c-bet, I will be betting all my air, strong TPs, and all my draws. I'll be checking back most of my middle pairs, but I might decide to turn my hand into a bluff with weak bottom pairs. Once he calls the flop, I'll be giving up with my air hands, unless I improve, I'll probably check or block bet the turn with my draws, and keep value betting with my strong made hands.

Given that this guy is a fish and likely isn't paying attention to my bet sizes, I could probably value bet larger, like $1-1.20, and bluff .70-.85. There's no reason why I shouldn't go for more value vs this guy and save a few bbs when I'm bluffing.

Value bet: 99, QQ-AA, KQ, AK for a total of 30 combos
Semi-bluff: AcTc-AcQc for a total of 3 combinations
Bluff: AJo-AQo for a total of 32 combos
Checking: 88, TT, JJ for a total of 18 combos

Bump.

Wow, one person. That's pretty weak. I guess I won't do these anymore.

Hang on Spoony, haven't had much time to be online the last few days... and I reformatted my computer the other day, let me see if I can reimport my old database... hang tight.

No! Don't stop doing these, they're great. I haven't had a chance to do exercises 3+ as I've been too busy, but I'm definitely doing these over the weekend. They're really useful in terms of actually having an overall strategy and exploring the relative merits and risks of any strategy.

One suggestion, once I've done them & you've criticised my responses, ie once I've really learnt something, maybe delete them all so none of my competitors will be learning too

^ Same.

One of the exercises, I think 3, daunts me...but I'll still attempt it.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Hang on Spoony, haven't had much time to be online the last few days... and I reformatted my computer the other day, let me see if I can reimport my old database... hang tight.

I tell you what. Viruses suck. That is all.

Ok, so that is not all... I just recovered as much of my database as I could, and it amounts to around 65,000 hands. Tonight I hope to actually attempt this exercise, now that things are mostly back to normal on my PC... I'm not sure how many micro opponents I have enough hands on, but I'll look tonight. Patience oh great spoony, some of us are working on it

Please don't stop these spoon.

I'm having trouble trying to find a villian with 500+ hands that meets the other criteria. I'll keep looking.

I'll wait a few days before doing anymore to give you guys time to catch up.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Previous Threads in the Series: Exercise 1 (link), Exercise 2 (link), Exercise 3 (link), Exercise 4 (link)

In Exercise 4, we looked at a handful of adjustments to make against common characteristics we'll see in opponents at micro stakes and small stakes. We also touched on the general process of considering our opponent's strategy and deciding how to play against it in general (ie: how we'll play our entire range) before figuring out what we should do with the specific hand we happen to have this time we're dealt cards, and the earlier exercises were to prepare you for this type of thinking.

Here's what we're getting at with all of this. Generally when you're playing poker, you'll see your hand and each time it's your turn to make a decision you try to make the best play you can based off of your hand and the information you're given. This is a logical thought process to follow, but there is another way. If instead you think about how you would like to play your range as a whole first, it makes certain types of decisions much easier, especially on the early streets. It also makes it easier to stick to an exploitive strategy that will force a constant edge over time.

Go into your database and find some hand where you raised pre-flop and only one opponent called, leaving you out of position. You would preferably have a lot of hands on this person (500+) and have a decent idea of what they were calling you down with, how often they raise c-bets, and things of that nature. Ignoring the pocket cards you held, describe the situation and your opponent, and describe your opponent's strategy on the flop against you in this situation. I don't mean so much breaking their range down (though that's fine if you want to do it), but just in general how you think they will play on that board given what you know about them as far as stats and notes go. With that in mind, describe your counter-strategy. That is, describe how you're going to play the flop to take advantage of what you know about their play, and why you're choosing to play your range in that way.

I've run through my database and don't think I'm looking at the right things, I'm going to have to work on this a lot to understand it more, I have not done this kind of analysis before and I see where I'm lacking already. But I'm not sure I'm even doing the analysis correctly. I don't know that I'm getting the value out of this exercise as I don't know that I'm looking at things right, or have enough hands to make sense of this. I'm going back and looking through things again, maybe some general studying of my histories is more in order first...

Thanks Spoon, I'll see what I can come up with.

OK Let me take a shot at this one....I found a villain where I have 200 hands and raise UTG and play OOP Villain is 21/6/.4, w/ 76% fold to cbet is not positionally aware. I am not really happy with how I played the flop but after I think its ok.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($2.60)
CO ($12.50)
Villain (Button) ($9)
SB ($25.05)
BB ($13.35)
Hero (UTG) ($9.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2 cardsHero bets $0.40, 2 folds, Villain calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 10, A, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, Villain calls $0.60

His stats tell me that he could be calling w/ a fairly wide range. He is passive so he could hold a very good hand and not 3bet.
After the flop:
His aggression is very low and he's very passive so if he has a good piece of the flop, he will probably slowplay and let me dictate the action.
My counter isnt the smartest. I know he's passive so I bet small b/c I don't want to bet too much in case he has 2nd pair or a weak A. I bet what I think he will call. It's likely he will fold regardless of my bet size if he has little. I want him to call so I should bet a little bigger.


Turn: ($2.15) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, Villain calls $1.10

Again, he is passive but he has shown some interest in the pot. As is usual he will lay back and let me hang myself. I want him to call, and there are very few draws available so I bet 1/2 pot so that if he has a TPGK type hand he will call and extend the pot. I am trying to manipulate the size of the pot so that his AX hands will keep calling.

River: ($4.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Villain calls $3

If he has a total monster, he will prob reraise river, if not, he'll call down. His first 2 calls let me know that he is very interested and is a call station. I counter this by making a good size value bet on the river b/c I am confident his Ax will call and I am ahead of those hands.

Total pot: $10.35 | Rake: $0.50


Thats my work on this hand. I wanted to keep him in the pot on the flop and turn but on the river I knoew his stationy charachter would let me bet large and take a nice pot.

Hmm, well, I was going to try doing all the exercises but I haven't been playing enough to have this many hands with anyone

I have like 200 hands with one guy but he's this bastard who sits down at 25NL tables with $5 and does nothing but go all-in with 8% of his hands. Probably wins more than I do But really, if I wanted to make a crap hourly rate and be bored shitless doing it couldn't I get a job at a gas station?

i'll keep an eye out as i play for a hand which is appropriate for this thread. dont really have enough hands on anyone at the moment to comment with much detail.

*Edited to remove my hole cards. Sorry Spoon.

I have 500 hands on this villian, but I’ve only played two hands with him and just one that meets the criteria of being OOP.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($4.61)
BB ($6.62)
Button ($5.31)

Preflop: Hero is SB with some cards

Button bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.45) Q, 8, J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30

My range is for the SB {99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQ}

Villian stats are 20/15/3.9 (3bet), ATS=28%, C-bet=35%, Fold to C-Bet=50%, Fold to 3-Bet=50%

When I see stats like these at 5NL, I start with the assumption that he is a solid, straight-forward player who doesn’t get too fancy and plays for value the majority of time. I think a looser or a tighter player would be more exploitable.

Against a player like this, I tend to play for value as well. I don’t want to get involved without decent equity. Villian doesn’t steal an outrageous amount. We could consider 3-bet bluffing occasionally, but with a Fold to 3-bet of only 50%, we might be owning ourselves. Post flop, his C-Bet % is very low, indicating a fit or fold player, yet his Fold to C-Bet is also low, which indicates that he doesn’t play post-flop without decent equity or that he likes to see Turn cards. I don't have WTSD% or W$SD% on my HUD. I guess it would be a good idea to start looking at those stats.

To exploit this player, I would bet for value pre-flop and post-flop. Is that exploiting? I guess, if villian thinks I'm nitty, I could probably bluff 3-bet some Button steals and even donk bet more flops w/air (OOP) to see how he reacts. I don't really know the best way to exploit him.

In this particular hand, villian could be stealing w/air since he probably sees me as a nitty player who doesn't 3-bet much. When I call, he has to think I have a decent hand. The flop is very wet and I don't want to let him have a free card or draw too cheaply (I probably should have bet at least .35). My donk bet takes the initiative in the hand and probably looks like a value bet. He would call with AQ, KT, any flush draw 78s+, and probably raise KT of diamonds, 88, JJ+.

Typically, post-flop, I would bet 75% of pot on the flop and Turn, and maybe check/call the River if no draws completed. But for this exercise, on a drier board, maybe I could exploit Villian by trying for 3-streets of value using smaller bet-sizes with TPTK, 2-pair+ type hands, as he may be a bit of a calling station post-flop with middle pair type hands.

I think going for a c/c, donk turn line would be a little bit better of a line there Schya. His c-bet is pretty low, so if he c-bets this flop, we can be pretty sure he has a piece, be it a GSSD, Jx, Qx, set, two pair, FD, etc. If it checks through, we very likely have the best hand and can safely bet the turn, and likely the river. By donking the flop you let him play perfectly vs our hand. Like you said, he will probably view our bet as a value bet and will likely only continue with TPGK and strong draws. In other words, we're either slightly ahead or way behind when he calls our donkbet.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

I think going for a c/c, donk turn line would be a little bit better of a line there Schya. His c-bet is pretty low, so if he c-bets this flop, we can be pretty sure he has a piece, be it a GSSD, Jx, Qx, set, two pair, FD, etc. If it checks through, we very likely have the best hand and can safely bet the turn, and likely the river. By donking the flop you let him play perfectly vs our hand. Like you said, he will probably view our bet as a value bet and will likely only continue with TPGK and strong draws. In other words, we're either slightly ahead or way behind when he calls our donkbet.

I've started check-calling a lot more with TPTK on dry flops and it seems to work pretty well keeping worse hands in and confusing villians. But, do you really want to do that on a drawy flop like this?

Well the reason I want to c/c here is because he already has the initiative in the hand, we have a fairly strong hand atm, so there's really no reason to donk here. If he bets we can assume he has a piece of the board. If he doesn't, we can go for two streets of value by leading turn and river. By donking, he can fold his Jx, 8x, GSSD, worse Qx, and continue with hands that are either beating ours or that have decent equity (draws, pair + draws).

By checking we allow him to c-bet whatever air and all his draws, whatever if he chooses. We keep the weaker portion of his range in. By donking he can fold all his weaker stuff and continue with a range we're essentially flipping with.

My range is 5h5d.

ok villain is 11/5/3 3bet/ 88 fold to cbet/ 12 percent raise cbet/ 20ats

based on his ats compared to his pfr i would assume hes somewhat positionally aware. Obviously he is fit or fold, with such a high fold to cbet %, his range in this situation is [44+,ajo+,ats+,kqo]

obviously before posting the hand you can see that i want to try and exploit his fit or folded ness by bluffing a lot of flops (cbetting), and shutting down when he continues.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($5.05)
MP2 ($1.87)
Hero (CO) ($5)
Button ($5)
SB ($1.87)
BB ($3.45)
UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($10.07)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [22+a2s+a9o+,k9s+,kjo+,56s+,57s+] Hero bets $0.17, Button calls $0.17, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.41) 8, 7, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.41, Button raises to $1.10, [color=#666666] , hero???

His line vs me is very standard, as we know he is fit or fold he is only going to put money into the pot when he has something good.

ok so this was a great flop for me, but this flop really polarizes his range between clear folds and really strong hands. he is laying down all his missed non flush draw broadways and missed mp's (55,66), for a total of 75 combos, he is calling 5 broadway flush draw combos, he is raising sets, overpairs (45 combos)

so he folds 75/124- 60%
has my range crushed- 45/124 36%
has hands i can possibly extract some value out of-5/124 4%

so if i want my cbet to be break even i need to find out 60%(.41) - 40%(x)= 0 so
.24-.4x=0
.24=.4x
.6=x

so i can bet as much as 60cents into this pot and it still be break even. In reality i sohuld have bet about 1/3 of that (or 1/2 of what i bet) because they would have accomplished the same thing and made me money. I bet so high because i thought i was giving incorrect odds to a flush draw, however it is easy to see that he only has a flush draw a minimal percentage of the time.

In order to exploit his strategy i need to continue to cbet wide, and only continue with a slither of my range aka straights, straight flush draws, flush draws + pairs, and trips/overpairs

i hope i did this right please help me if i am wrong on any of my thinking

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP) ($9.88)
Button ($5.99)
SB ($7.11)
BB ($6.48)
UTG ($2.36)

Preflop: Hero is MP with two cards
1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.47) , , (2 players)
Hero ???

Over 900 hands, villain is 25/9/2.2 AF 43.67% AFq (F/T/R: 47/43/33), 40% W$WSF, 26% WTSD, 2.6% 3bet pre, 85.7% fold 3bet pre, 15% steal, 80% fold to steal. Cbet stats: 51% Fold F Cbet, 3% raise F cbet, 62% fold T cbet

My range: { 22+,A2s+,A2o+,KTs+,KTo+,QTs+,QTo+,JTs+,JTo+,T9s,98 s }

This villain calls too much on the flop and shows too little aggression. He folds more often to turn cbets, however. My strategy to exploit him is to value bet a wider range of hands than normal and to bluff with hands that have decent potential to gain equity on the turn (overcards, backdoor draws, etc.) to make it easier to double barrel.

Value bet: 22, 88+, AKo, AKs, KQo, KQs, KJo, KJs, KTo, KTs, A8o, A8s (99 combos)
Semibluff: Ac2c+, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c (13 combos)
Bluff: AcXx+, As2s+, QTo, QTs, QJo, QJs, JTs, JTo, T9o, T9s (100 combos)
Check: all other hands (about 140 combos)