*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[Poopadoop]

How???

She has the same problem all democrats have....no viable policy platform. They can't compete with Republicans on economic growth or national security...you know the stuff that matters.

Based on the fact that no incumbent with an approval rating < 45% has been re-elected,then Trump at 32 or 35% of whatever it is would be an underdog to a dish towel.

[BananaStand]

Based on the fact that no incumbent with an approval rating < 45% has been re-elected,then Trump at 32 or 35% of whatever it is would be an underdog to a dish towel.

How come basic mathematical logic eludes you so easily??

How is that you can't see that 32% is a hugely bogus number?

He won with 49-ish percent of the vote. How the fuck could he lose 17% in the first year by doing nothing but delivering on promises and successfully disproving all of the scandalous allegations against him. Obviously that approval figure is fucked.

Or the other explanation, is that republicans just have split opinions on Trump. Take me for example....the guy wasn't my first choice. I didn't vote for him in the primary. But I would vote for him in the general election over any democrat you can name. I think there are shit tons of people out there who might "disapprove" of the job Trump is doing, but would still vote for him in 2020.

[Poopadoop]

How come basic mathematical logic eludes you so easily??

I know right? It's amazing I teach stats at a graduate level.

How is that you can't see that 32% is a hugely bogus number?

It's actually closer to 35% i think. But, you know that number comes from Gallup, an independent and unbiased source right? It's not like it's a Breitbart or CNN poll.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/201617/g...-approval.aspx

He won with 49-ish percent of the vote. How the fuck could he lose 17% in the first year by doing nothing but delivering on promises and successfully disproving all of the scandalous allegations against him. Obviously that approval figure is fucked.

On that analysis it sure is. The problem is a large section of the public apparently doesn't see things that way.

Or the other explanation, is that republicans just have split opinions on Trump. Take me for example....the guy wasn't my first choice. I didn't vote for him in the primary. But I would vote for him in the general election over any democrat you can name. I think there are shit tons of people out there who might "disapprove" of the job Trump is doing, but would still vote for him in 2020.

So they can hate him but still prefer him to any democrat? Well, that's possible and I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.

Edit: Any maybe that explains the discrepancy between his approval rating and the number of people who voted for him. Though the former has been trending downwards fairly steadily since he took office.

[BananaStand]

Based on the fact that no incumbent with an approval rating < 45% has been re-elected,then Trump at 32 or 35% of whatever it is would be an underdog to a dish towel.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017...ms-fester.html

^Proof that approval ratings mean dog shit.

You have to understand that the people who take these polls don't follow the news. They know more about which Jenner brat is dating which basketball player than they do about the taxes, education, or healthcare. These approval polls, as proven by Chicago, are really just a measure of how "cool" you are, and have nothing to do with quality of work.

At crunch time though...Trump will have a record to run on. Democrats will need a message. So far all they've got is "orange face....sexist.....twitter"

[Poopadoop]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017...ms-fester.html

^Proof that approval ratings mean dog shit.

Really having problems with definitions lately aren't you?

If this is proof of anything it's that being opposed to someone who's wildly unpopular is a popular thing to do.

At crunch time though...

Crunch time may come before 2020 if Mueller gets his job done in time.

Trump will have a record to run on.

Right. Suddenly people who are embarrassed every time he opens his mouth and all his bullshit and all the accusations against him will wake up and realize none of that matters because the stock market they have no investments in is high.

Or are you referring to something else by "his record?" I'm still waiting for someone to explain all the amazing things he's accomplished in the last year. I mean I know he says that he has but that's not really evidence.

Democrats will need a message. So far all they've got is "orange face....sexist.....twitter"

Assuming Trump is allowed to run in 2020, if the democrats can find anyone halfway respectable, they'll win unless things change a lot between now and then.

[wufwugy]

Crunch time may come before 2020 if Mueller gets his job done in time.

Amazing.

Scott Adams is totally right. People are watching two different movies on the same screen. The facts don't matter. The only way to tell if the movie you're watching is more accurate is if it is better at getting its predictions right.

[Poopadoop]

Amazing.

Scott Adams is totally right. People are watching two different movies on the same screen. The facts don't matter. The only way to tell if the movie you're watching is more accurate is if it is better at getting its predictions right.

People aren't watching the same screen, or at least not with the same narrator.

One narration is showing Trump being persecuted unjustly by some shady establishment with shady motives; the other is showing a shady guy and his shady cronies being investigated for a crime. The only thing the two screens have in common is that no-one but the key players know the truth.

The facts don't matter. The only way to tell if the movie you're watching is more accurate is if it is better at getting its predictions right.

It's not the predictions that matter, it's the explanations. Both movies could predict Trump goes to jail, but how and why he gets there would be based on completely different premises. Similarly, both could predict he gets re-elected in 2020, but would explain it as being for totally different reasons.

[wufwugy]

People aren't watching the same screen, or at least not with the same narrator.

Yeah I prefer that way of putting just. Just making sure to give Adams his credit.

One narration is showing Trump being persecuted unjustly by some shady establishment with shady motives; the other is showing a shady guy and his shady cronies being investigated for a crime. The only thing the two screens have in common is that no-one but the key players know the truth.

Example of one of the screens.

Really we're just loling at the idea that anybody thinks that somebody hired somebody to take himself down.

It's not the predictions that matter, it's the explanations. Both movies could predict Trump goes to jail, but how and why he gets there would be based on completely different premises. Similarly, both could predict he gets re-elected in 2020, but would explain it as being for totally different reasons.

That's the thing, explanations matter if the viewer thinks they matter, at least when it comes to thinks like this, where ramifications aren't felt.

[Poopadoop]

Really we're just loling at the idea that anybody thinks that somebody hired somebody to take himself down.

That is a funny story. But hard to reconcile with the facts.

1. Trump fires Comey, who later accuses him of trying to obstruct justice by asking him to drop his investigation of Flynn.

2. The DAG hires Mueller. Trump unhappy because Sessions recused himself and handed the authority over to Rosenstein.

3. Indictments of several of Trump's campaign team and administration (including Flynn) follow.

4. Several of those indicted get deals in return for testimony.

....

n. Trump either gets fingered or there's not enough evidence.


This isn't Law and Order, the investigation doesn't get all wrapped up in an hour. 'n' might not come for another year or more, but it will come. It's hard to see Trump coming out of this smelling like anything besides shit really; the only question is how bad the smell will be.