**** Elections thread *****

[wufwugy]

wufwugy

Is there any evidence that points towards a Clinton win?

Great question.

The best evidence she has is the topline of the polls as well as that pollsters are pretty consistently getting big D+ response samples.

The topline is good evidence if we assume the parameters pollsters are using are relatively accurate. I do not think they are accurate and I've tried to back this up previously. Examples of this are where primaries turnout for Democrats was significantly lower than in 2008, yet pollsters are consistently projecting an even larger turnout for Democrats than in 2008. This does not pass the smell test. Where is this turnout gonna come from? It won't be from blacks nor youths. It could be from Hispanics (more specifically Mexicans), and there is indeed evidence to suggest that turnout among Hispanics will probably increase this cycle. She could get increased turnout from women. That may be in the cards, but a counter to that is that there should definitely be increased turnout for Trump with men, so it may be a wash. She definitely will not get increased turnout among whites. All in all, the explanation for the pollsters weighting for greater turnout for Hillary than for Obama 2008 points to either agenda-driven polling or laziness.

The consistent D+ samples are probably a better sign for Clinton. However, there seems to also be something fucky going on there. Apparently email leaks from the Clinton camp have shown them discussing deliberately oversampling demographics favorable to them in order to sway public opinion. Additionally, the D+ sampling is too consistent to make statistical sense. Even if the population will turnout by D+10, we would expect a decent amount of polls to come in with raw samples of R+. Yet they're not. The largest quantity of R+ samples I've seen have been the last week of IBD tracking polls, which every day have had R+ samples and yet have been weighted to reflect ~D+7.

Another thing that helps Clinton is that there are still "values" conservative NeverTrump people. I think this is a wash considering the large number of Bernie Democrats that aren't voting for her.

Another potentially positive point for Clinton is that Independents do not appear to fall for Trump at >15 points. This means that if there is big D turnout, she can win.



On the evidence for Trump victory side, it appears that today Clinton's camp has cancelled appearances in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. This would mean that they already know they've lost those. Meanwhile the polls had her leading those big league. Given that Pennsylvania only ran 2.5 points more blue than Ohio in 2012, abandoning Ohio would suggest that she's at best neck and neck in PA. I think it suggests that she's behind in PA because if she was within 3 of Ohio she would not abandon it. This all assumes she really has left those states. A decent amount of what comes from a handful of the sources I use is not accurate.

[Poopadoop]

On the evidence for Trump victory side, it appears that today Clinton's camp has cancelled appearances in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. This would mean that they already know they've lost those. Meanwhile the polls had her leading those big league.

Some pretty fuzzy logic here: She's not campaigning in places where the polls have her way ahead, therefore she knows she's losing them. How does she 'know' she's losing when the evidence says she's winning?

[wufwugy]

Some pretty fuzzy logic here: She's not campaigning in places where the polls have her way ahead, therefore she knows she's losing them. How does she 'know' she's losing when the evidence says she's winning?

The evidence I am referring to is the early vote. The polls, up until very recently (like today, maybe yesterday), had her quite a bit ahead. But as we all know, the actual voting results matter more than the polls, and those results in OH FL and NC are devastating to Clinton. She is significantly underperforming Obama at this point 4 years ago and projections have Trump winning all those states handily.

In North Carolina, which Romney won in 2012, R is down but D is down even more than R, and I is up way more than 2012. I went for Romney and in the 2016 primaries went Republican by 10 points. Clinton's camp would be reasonable to project a loss here.

In Ohio, there is significant increase in white vote and decrease in black vote. I forget the other numbers, but they point at an R win. This, along with the movement seen from early vote in the rest of the Midwest, suggests she should embrace for a big loss in Ohio.

In Florida, it's basically Clinton's nightmare. D early vote is way behind where it was in 2012. R early vote is high and climbing as the late opening R counties are coming in.

[Poopadoop]

it appears that today Clinton's camp has cancelled appearances in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. This would mean that they already know they've lost those.

It appears they forgot to tell Bill.

http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/news...g-rallies.html

and Pence didn't seem to get the memo either

He and Mike Pence have events planned in several other tight states over the next couple of days including Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania.

[wufwugy]

It appears they forgot to tell Bill.

http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/news...g-rallies.html

and Pence didn't seem to get the memo either

I figured the early reports would not tell the whole story. Note, I included a disclaimer on that one.

[Poopadoop]

I figured the early reports would not tell the whole story. Note, I included a disclaimer on that one.

It's not the early reports. It's that nothing has actually been cancelled. It's that the whole thing was made up.

http://www.snopes.com/white-house-ca...a-appearances/

[wufwugy]

It's not the early reports. It's that nothing has actually been cancelled. It's that the whole thing was made up.

http://www.snopes.com/white-house-ca...a-appearances/

The hoaxes go both ways. FWIW I wasn't referring to this directly, but what I was referring to was not concrete and could have been derived from this. It was a side comment where I claimed it could be false since I come across a lot of false stuff that sounds fun.