**** Elections thread *****

[Poopadoop]

On the evidence for Trump victory side, it appears that today Clinton's camp has cancelled appearances in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. This would mean that they already know they've lost those. Meanwhile the polls had her leading those big league.

Some pretty fuzzy logic here: She's not campaigning in places where the polls have her way ahead, therefore she knows she's losing them. How does she 'know' she's losing when the evidence says she's winning?

[wufwugy]

Some pretty fuzzy logic here: She's not campaigning in places where the polls have her way ahead, therefore she knows she's losing them. How does she 'know' she's losing when the evidence says she's winning?

The evidence I am referring to is the early vote. The polls, up until very recently (like today, maybe yesterday), had her quite a bit ahead. But as we all know, the actual voting results matter more than the polls, and those results in OH FL and NC are devastating to Clinton. She is significantly underperforming Obama at this point 4 years ago and projections have Trump winning all those states handily.

In North Carolina, which Romney won in 2012, R is down but D is down even more than R, and I is up way more than 2012. I went for Romney and in the 2016 primaries went Republican by 10 points. Clinton's camp would be reasonable to project a loss here.

In Ohio, there is significant increase in white vote and decrease in black vote. I forget the other numbers, but they point at an R win. This, along with the movement seen from early vote in the rest of the Midwest, suggests she should embrace for a big loss in Ohio.

In Florida, it's basically Clinton's nightmare. D early vote is way behind where it was in 2012. R early vote is high and climbing as the late opening R counties are coming in.