should i bet turn?

[chardrian]

Im definitely betting turn for value but also totally fine with just ending the hand there with no showdown. I agree we have showdown value on the turn, but I would rather not give a free card here. I agree better hands are calling but I am totally fine with worse hands folding and just taking this nice little 12 BB pot.

I also totally get your viewpoint and definitely see merit in checking turn and calling good river cards tho.

[OngBonga]

Im definitely betting turn for value but also totally fine with just ending the hand there with no showdown. I agree we have showdown value on the turn, but I would rather not give a free card here. I agree better hands are calling but I am totally fine with worse hands folding and just taking this nice little 12 BB pot.

I also totally get your viewpoint and definitely see merit in checking turn and calling good river cards tho.

I normally find myself agreeing with you after considering the hand further, but here I'm really struggling to see where the value is coming from. I do get the desire to end the hand now, but I feel that if there's no worse hands calling, and no better hands folding, then we're clearly making a losing bet in order to win a pot that we probably win at showdown anyway, while taking away his chance to stab the river. There's five cards I don't want to see on river, and even when I do see them it doesn't cost me anything more. I've no problem giving a free card here.

[Savy]

I normally find myself agreeing with you after considering the hand further, but here I'm really struggling to see where the value is coming from. I do get the desire to end the hand now, but I feel that if there's no worse hands calling, and no better hands folding, then we're clearly making a losing bet in order to win a pot that we probably win at showdown anyway, while taking away his chance to stab the river. There's five cards I don't want to see on river, and even when I do see them it doesn't cost me anything more. I've no problem giving a free card here.

It's about folding out equity mostly & a side bonus is being able to bet more rivers as a result of betting more turns.

You're looking at hands we're better/worse than like it's a one street river situation.

At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.

[chardrian]

It's about folding out equity mostly & a side bonus is being able to bet more rivers as a result of betting more turns.

You're looking at hands we're better/worse than like it's a one street river situation.

At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.

I concur. When I said value, all I really meant was that I think we are ahead on the turn a vast majority of the time.

[OngBonga]

At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.

Ok, but it's important to recognise where the value is coming from.

If it's not from the better hands folding, or the worse hands calling, then it can only be from the dead money itself. We already have around 90% equity here, against his Ax anyway, so we're essentially trying to steal his 10% equity. How many times do we need to be successful at this before we pay for the times he calls his better hands?

I remain unconvinced that betting turn is profitable.

[chardrian]

We already have around 90% equity here, against his Ax anyway, so we're essentially trying to steal his 10% equity.

It's actually more like we have 80% and we are trying to steal 20% equity - I would give my opp 9 outs here (Any A, 7, or his kicker). There is also value in not having to show your cards down at a showdown.

[JimmyS1985]

Well according to my best poker friend, I'm easily one of the worst poker players in his immediate circle and I should never give advice to other players, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

I think that if you're going to bluff, it is better to bluff the turn, than the river. And here's why, because if you bluff the turn, then villain has to worry about another bet coming on the river. Now if I bluffed turn here and got that card for a river I'm most certainly giving up. However you have "leverage" with a turn bluff, particularly when you have position on them, as opposed to a river bluff since there's no more threat of bets to come. But 8bb for a 10bb pot on river, I'm calling you down with all of my Ace highs on that board.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but given that he has an overpair to the 4, he perhaps could have raised the flop cbet if we knew villain was cbetting his entire range including all his Ace highs, to defend your hand and taken the pot down earlier and fold out his equity in the hand without having to see showdown and risk getting sucked out on. If villain is calling raises oop with Ace high's and only 1 over to the board, that's note worthy even if you still lose the hand.

On that board and on that river, I just don't see you folding out much that's better, Q high, J high perhaps, pocket 6's, in other words, a very narrow range of better hands you could get to fold. Virtually everything beats you here and an A which makes up a lot of villains range is always calling you here.

I understand your thinking is the only way you're going to win this pot is if you bluff, but I like to think that I probably would have given up on the pot given that I don't even make a qualifying hand at showdown.

Anyways I hope I'm not overly critical, I have difficulty with this game too.

[OngBonga]

It's actually more like we have 80% and we are trying to steal 20% equity - I would give my opp 9 outs here (Any A, 7, or his kicker). There is also value in not having to show your cards down at a showdown.

It's hard, perhaps impossible, to quantify the value of not showing down though. I'm not even sure it has any value against an opponent who is inept when it comes to adapting and exploiting.

You're right about his equity though, I'm neglecting to consider that he has a higher kicker than a 5 most of the time, which does indeed give him more equity that I'm giving him. I remain unconvinced we're stealing enough equity though, considering that a 60c turn bet is an attempt to steal 22c, assuming 20% equity for villain.

[The Bean Counter]

It's about folding out equity mostly & a side bonus is being able to bet more rivers as a result of betting more turns.

You're looking at hands we're better/worse than like it's a one street river situation.

At the same time he says value bet but I'm not really a huge fan of the whole value/bluff distinction that's common in poker.

Nice post. Folding out villain's equity is good and it prevents us being effectively bluffed off the river by a competent villain. Villain rarely has anything that beats us at this point too.

[OngBonga]

Folding out equity is all very well and good, but if he has 20%, and we're stabbing at half pot, well villain's equity is around 20c, the bet is around 60c, so we need three times more folds than calls, assuming he always folds worse and always continues with better.

Hmm. I might finally be seeing where the value is. I can't see him calling 33%+ here.

edit - bad maths, 3:1 ratio would mean he needs to call only 25% for us to lose money by betting.

Still, I'm not sure he even has that many calls. I think I'm wrong here. At least I can see why though, my argument hasn't been in vain.

[chardrian]

I normally find myself agreeing with you after considering the hand further, but here I'm really struggling to see where the value is coming from. I do get the desire to end the hand now, but I feel that if there's no worse hands calling, and no better hands folding, then we're clearly making a losing bet in order to win a pot that we probably win at showdown anyway, while taking away his chance to stab the river. There's five cards I don't want to see on river, and even when I do see them it doesn't cost me anything more. I've no problem giving a free card here.

My counterpoints:
1) Our opp is not necessarily going to stab at river
2) Our opp is not necessarily folding worse (I have seen lots of players refuse to fold Ax hands here and against the right opp that would actually be a correct call)
3) On pretty much any river except for 6-, we are likely going to check back even if it is checked to us, so let's get our bet in on the turn.