should i bet turn?

[chardrian]

We already have around 90% equity here, against his Ax anyway, so we're essentially trying to steal his 10% equity.

It's actually more like we have 80% and we are trying to steal 20% equity - I would give my opp 9 outs here (Any A, 7, or his kicker). There is also value in not having to show your cards down at a showdown.

[JimmyS1985]

Well according to my best poker friend, I'm easily one of the worst poker players in his immediate circle and I should never give advice to other players, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

I think that if you're going to bluff, it is better to bluff the turn, than the river. And here's why, because if you bluff the turn, then villain has to worry about another bet coming on the river. Now if I bluffed turn here and got that card for a river I'm most certainly giving up. However you have "leverage" with a turn bluff, particularly when you have position on them, as opposed to a river bluff since there's no more threat of bets to come. But 8bb for a 10bb pot on river, I'm calling you down with all of my Ace highs on that board.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but given that he has an overpair to the 4, he perhaps could have raised the flop cbet if we knew villain was cbetting his entire range including all his Ace highs, to defend your hand and taken the pot down earlier and fold out his equity in the hand without having to see showdown and risk getting sucked out on. If villain is calling raises oop with Ace high's and only 1 over to the board, that's note worthy even if you still lose the hand.

On that board and on that river, I just don't see you folding out much that's better, Q high, J high perhaps, pocket 6's, in other words, a very narrow range of better hands you could get to fold. Virtually everything beats you here and an A which makes up a lot of villains range is always calling you here.

I understand your thinking is the only way you're going to win this pot is if you bluff, but I like to think that I probably would have given up on the pot given that I don't even make a qualifying hand at showdown.

Anyways I hope I'm not overly critical, I have difficulty with this game too.

[OngBonga]

It's actually more like we have 80% and we are trying to steal 20% equity - I would give my opp 9 outs here (Any A, 7, or his kicker). There is also value in not having to show your cards down at a showdown.

It's hard, perhaps impossible, to quantify the value of not showing down though. I'm not even sure it has any value against an opponent who is inept when it comes to adapting and exploiting.

You're right about his equity though, I'm neglecting to consider that he has a higher kicker than a 5 most of the time, which does indeed give him more equity that I'm giving him. I remain unconvinced we're stealing enough equity though, considering that a 60c turn bet is an attempt to steal 22c, assuming 20% equity for villain.