**** Elections thread *****

[wufwugy]

I'm thinking Rubio scores just a handful of points behind Trump in Iowa. With Cruz winning Iowa, Rubio will have tons of momentum to place first in New Hampshire. We'll then pretty quickly move into the Cruz vs Rubio showdown. I don't have much of a handle on who wins that. Part of my gut says Rubio since he would be mixing establishment vote with some conservative vote, but another part of my gut says there is enough grassroots anti-elite vote that Cruz could take it. The problem with the latter, however, is that Rubio isn't establishment; he's just acceptable among establishment types. Rubio can chip away at Cruz's support but Cruz can't chip away at Rubio's.

[wufwugy]

I'm thinking Rubio scores just a handful of points behind Trump in Iowa. With Cruz winning Iowa, Rubio will have tons of momentum to place first in New Hampshire. We'll then pretty quickly move into the Cruz vs Rubio showdown. I don't have much of a handle on who wins that. Part of my gut says Rubio since he would be mixing establishment vote with some conservative vote, but another part of my gut says there is enough grassroots anti-elite vote that Cruz could take it. The problem with the latter, however, is that Rubio isn't establishment; he's just acceptable among establishment types. Rubio can chip away at Cruz's support but Cruz can't chip away at Rubio's.

Adding that Cruz can expand the primary electorate in ways that Rubio can't.

I have no clue who wins Cruz vs Rubio. Anybody have an opinion?