Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

[Beck Novo]

Wuf, you never pointed out Aubrey's wolf-tell like you said you would. My question is how could you have so strongly read her as a villager but the moment she's about to get shot, you just notice a potential wolf-tell of hers. She only ever had like five posts or something; if you knew her so well, why did it take so long for you to find this tell of hers?

If you can point me towards her wolf-tell and convince me of its legitimacy, I will reconsider my vote against you.

[ProbablynotAWolff]

Hm? Coincidence?

Just poking around.

Also, BID voted Aubrey out of "self-preservation" several hours before the end of the phase. Does he do this as a wolf?

personally, I think hes probably the backup poisoner but hes lost his mind for whatever reason today

[wufwugy]

Wuf,

My problem is that I think hesitate is exactly what you did when ITAs were coming around and Audrey was the target. You were posting defenses of her then posting about if she has a wolf tell. It looke dlike you were working up the nerve to shoot her and if you shot her you would look good but the problem is Gabe didn't hesitate and shot and hit her. Now we're left to determine whether or not you were really reconsidering her, or if your a wolf trying to make your flip on your stance of her villagy.

im not getting blindsided as a wolf on this sort of thing. with aubrey in the position she was in, id be prepping an immediate shot for the itas. there was plenty of prep given how much people wanted her dead for how long

[wufwugy]

Wuf, you never pointed out Aubrey's wolf-tell like you said you would. My question is how could you have so strongly read her as a villager but the moment she's about to get shot, you just notice a potential wolf-tell of hers. She only ever had like five posts or something; if you knew her so well, why did it take so long for you to find this tell of hers?

If you can point me towards her wolf-tell and convince me of its legitimacy, I will reconsider my vote against you.

i did point it out. you must have missed it

[Beck Novo]

Wuf and bopo, because I have you both here. Take a look at the VC I posted a page back. If SIU flips villager, where would the wolves most likely be on their wagons? Knowing how now that Aubrey was a wolf. Just looking for thoughts/opinions/etc.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, you never pointed out Aubrey's wolf-tell like you said you would. My question is how could you have so strongly read her as a villager but the moment she's about to get shot, you just notice a potential wolf-tell of hers. She only ever had like five posts or something; if you knew her so well, why did it take so long for you to find this tell of hers?

If you can point me towards her wolf-tell and convince me of its legitimacy, I will reconsider my vote against you.

1503

she has a higher probability of caring more about what people say about her as a villager, and less of one if she's a wolf. this sorta directly counters my read from earlier

[Beck Novo]

I also think OMG is a wolf.
Did seer flip yet?

lol

Don't know what to make of this?

[ProbablynotAWolff]

im not getting blindsided as a wolf on this sort of thing. with aubrey in the position she was in, id be prepping an immediate shot for the itas. there was plenty of prep given how much people wanted her dead for how long

You aren't wrong. In audrey's position it makes more sense for wolfbros to get villa cred then it does to defend her

[wufwugy]

Wuf and bopo, because I have you both here. Take a look at the VC I posted a page back. If SIU flips villager, where would the wolves most likely be on their wagons? Knowing how now that Aubrey was a wolf. Just looking for thoughts/opinions/etc.

easy, gizmo. but that's true regardless of what siu flips

the most likely scenario though is maybe one wolf flip to gizmo and the rest just spread out and maybe absent. it's usually like that. wolves are never as sophisticated and on the ball as we give them credit for

[ProbablynotAWolff]

Wuf and bopo, because I have you both here. Take a look at the VC I posted a page back. If SIU flips villager, where would the wolves most likely be on their wagons? Knowing how now that Aubrey was a wolf. Just looking for thoughts/opinions/etc.

I like the vote count you posted around ITAs where it was two hours til the EoD and Aubrey was the lead wagon. I think you and Ong look especially good from it.

I'll take a look at that VC your talking about in a minute

[Beck Novo]

easy, gizmo. but that's true regardless of what siu flips

the most likely scenario though is maybe one wolf flip to gizmo and the rest just spread out and maybe absent. it's usually like that. wolves are never as sophisticated and on the ball as we give them credit for

I mean, point me to one or two players specifically.

And you're right, they never are as organized. I would bet that at least one wolf is hiding still off of the first three wagons. But I think we can absolutely find something in the shift from Aubrey to SIU and Gizmo. I think this began around Pg. 7? I'm using 100ppp.

[ProbablynotAWolff]

Day One VC:

NightGizmo 8 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal, Hifi, ProbablyNotAWolff, Beck)
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Wufwugy, SuperMonkeyFace)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (TopTierTom, OngBonga)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)

Not Voting: MadMojoMonkey

I would bet anything that Kami and SIU are not wolves here, but it would also be optimal to know for certain what SIU's alignment is because it will shed a lot of light onto D1's VC. Statistcially, it's also likely that there's at least one wolf on Gizmo's wagon -- I would assume that if Kami and SIU are both villagers, then BR and rascal are both possibilities for wolves. HiFi, Luco, and bopo, too, but less so because they've all taken shots at wolves.

If SIU flips villager, then I will once again look at wuf and SMF. I trust gabe here. I need to re-read Ong's progression and see why he left his vote on rilla. BATM and BID both look back on Kami. And then there's Boog. Leaning villager on the latter but am still unsure.

First, I have no idea why wolves' poisoned SIU or kami. It doesnt make sense based on the heat they were getting. If theyre villas, theyre prime candidates to get lynches on.

Second, I think they shouldn't be healed in case it is some sort of FPS.

Third, I think if there are wolves in the Gizmo wagon, it is probably bigred but wolves are most likely off wagon or on Kami/ship. Someone mentioned ong leaving a vote on Audrey for credit, but he was on audrey when she was the top wagon which looks good. I need to reread the EoD to see if that holds up though.

I want to look when Rilla voted on Gizmo and how that went down

[Beck Novo]

Vote count
Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, NightGizmo)
Aubreymcfate 4 (Beck, Top Tier Tom, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami)
BankItDrew 2 (Hifi, OngBonga, lilrascal)
TopTierTom 1 (ShipItUp)
Wufwugy 1 (Rilla)
Ongbonga 1 (BankItDrew)
a500lbgorilla 1 (Luco)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Gabe, Boog, Bigred, JKDS

Vote count
Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, NightGizmo)
Aubreymcfate 4 (Beck, Top Tier Tom, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami)
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, OngBonga, lilrascal, BooG)
TopTierTom 1 (ShipItUp)
Wufwugy 1 (Rilla)
Ongbonga 1 (BankItDrew)
a500lbgorilla 1 (Luco)
SuperMonkeyFace 1 (gabe)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred, JKDS

Vote count

Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, OngBonga, lilrascal,Boog)
Aubreymcfate 3 (Beck, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami)
a500lbgorilla 2 (Luco, TopTierTom)
ShipItUp 2 (gabe, Nightgizmo)
TopTierTom 1 (ShipItUp)
Wufwugy 1 (Rilla)

not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred, JKDS

Vote count

Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, OngBonga, lilrascal,Boog)
Aubreymcfate 3 (Beck, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
a500lbgorilla 2 (Luco, TopTierTom)
TopTierTom 1 (ShipItUp)


not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred, JKDS

Day ends in 4 hours, 47 minutes

:00 good, :01 bad

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT

Aubreymcfate 6 (Beck, ProbablyNotAWolf, Kami, OngBonga, ShipItUp, TopTierTom)
Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
BankItDrew 3 (Hifi, lilrascal,Boog)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
a500lbgorilla 1 (Luco)


not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred, JKDS

Day ends in 3 hours, 30 minutes

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT

Aubreymcfate 4 (Beck, ProbablyNotAWolf, OngBonga, TopTierTom)
Kami 4 (Wufwugy, TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
BankItDrew 3 (Hifi, lilrascal,Boog)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
NightGizmo 3 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco)


not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred, JKDS

Day ends in 2 hours

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, lilrascal, Boog, Wufwugy)
Aubreymcfate 4 (Beck, ProbablyNotAWolf, OngBonga, TopTierTom)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
NightGizmo 3 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)

not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred

Day ends in 59 minutes.

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT
BankItDrew 4 (Hifi, lilrascal, Boog, Wufwugy)
Aubreymcfate 3 (ProbablyNotAWolf, OngBonga, TopTierTom)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
NightGizmo 3 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
JKDS 1 (Beck)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred

Day ends in 41 minutes.

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT
This might be the last time I get to update this but I'll try to get back by 9:50

BankItDrew 5 (Hifi, lilrascal, Boog, Wufwugy, OngBonga)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
ShipItUp 3 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla)
NightGizmo 3 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco)
Aubreymcfate 2 (ProbablyNotAWolf, TopTierTom)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
JKDS 1 (Beck)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face, Bigred

Day ends in 31 minutes.

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT
i think it's right
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Hifi, Wufwugy)
NightGizmo 5 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (ProbablyNotAWolf, TopTierTom)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
JKDS 1 (Beck)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)
not voting: MadMojoMonkey, Super Monkey Face

Day ends in 31 minutes.

:00 good, :01 bad

let me know of corrections immediately

THIS IS A VOTE COUNT

NightGizmo 8 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal, Hifi, ProbablyNotAWolff, Beck)
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Wufwugy, SuperMonkeyFace)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (TopTierTom, OngBonga)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)

not voting: MadMojoMonkey

5 more mins for corrections.

Posting for everyone. Need to take a look for myself.

[wufwugy]

I mean, point me to one or two players specifically.

And you're right, they never are as organized. I would bet that at least one wolf is hiding still off of the first three wagons. But I think we can absolutely find something in the shift from Aubrey to SIU and Gizmo. I think this began around Pg. 7? I'm using 100ppp.

im still in the camp where i think all the wolves are slanking. bid kami siu look much better to me than anybody else. theyre the only who have done zero (count it, zero) things i think are villy. everybody else has something going for them. even pnaw is looking better of recent.

well wait, and batm, he's slankin too. put me down for wanting nobody dead before bid kami siu batm.

[Beck Novo]

Initial thoughts: Kami and SIU look wicked suspicious for moving onto Gizmo like they did. If possible let's let them both die to poison. They're not here helping out anyway. Also, wuf literally skated around Aubrey's wagon entirely. Really, really not a good look.

[gabe]

i think we should let kami and shipitup both die

of course, we are a favorite to save a villager by healing one, but i dont think its +EV

i think we need to maximize our chance of killing the next wolf. we have a strong village and these 2 arent really apart of it, and both have some chance of being wolves

[Beck Novo]

So, really hopped from Wuf to SIU without saying a word. He literally just changed his vote. Completely unprompted and w/o an explanation. And he stuck it there until the end of the phase. I can't see wolf!rilla voting for wolf!SIU to combat wolf!Aubrey's wagon. Unless Aubrey were a wolf PR, but we know that that isn't the case.

This looks very clearing for SIU and Kami, tbh. I think their shotty D1 was just that - a shitty D1.

[Beck Novo]

rilla hopped* not really hopped

[ProbablynotAWolff]

looking at those votecounts. I dont want to vote for anyone that was ever on audrey. Her wagon is so pure.

wufwuf, your voting pattern is not so good. Audrey was tied in the lead with 2 hours to go then with 1 hour BID was in the lead(with your vote and the audrey wagon fell apart. Just by looking at the votecounts it looks as if the BID wagon was pushed to save Audrey which is a good look for BID, and the only reason it really was stopped was his claim.

If anything, it makes it so if BID is a villa those on his wagon look bad but if he's a wolf those on him, especially after Aubrey was no longer lead wagon are virtually lock clear. The only way BID never gets lynched is his claim, and I don't think wolves bus another wolf to save Audrey, especially since it puts a timer on BID and Audrey still has heat in the future.

[Beck Novo]

Agreed, Ong's D1 looks really solid. BATM'snvote against him just recently looks even worse.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Day One VC:

NightGizmo 8 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal, Hifi, ProbablyNotAWolff, Beck)
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Wufwugy, SuperMonkeyFace)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (TopTierTom, OngBonga)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)

Not Voting: MadMojoMonkey

I would bet anything that Kami and SIU are not wolves here, but it would also be optimal to know for certain what SIU's alignment is because it will shed a lot of light onto D1's VC. Statistcially, it's also likely that there's at least one wolf on Gizmo's wagon -- I would assume that if Kami and SIU are both villagers, then BR and rascal are both possibilities for wolves. HiFi, Luco, and bopo, too, but less so because they've all taken shots at wolves.

If SIU flips villager, then I will once again look at wuf and SMF. I trust gabe here. I need to re-read Ong's progression and see why he left his vote on rilla. BATM and BID both look back on Kami. And then there's Boog. Leaning villager on the latter but am still unsure.

Can you explain that one a little more?

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Hm? Coincidence?

Just poking around.

Also, BID voted Aubrey out of "self-preservation" several hours before the end of the phase. Does he do this as a wolf?

Haha nice white. Forgot about that

Personal victory

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Quote* not white

Almost ninja edited cuz it was in rules last game as allowed for typos. But wasn't sure with king baubob

[Luco]

i think we should let kami and shipitup both die

of course, we are a favorite to save a villager by healing one, but i dont think its +EV

i think we need to maximize our chance of killing the next wolf. we have a strong village and these 2 arent really apart of it, and both have some chance of being wolves

Disagree, they can be like bid and just make up the numbers. they're both villa

Kami is spewed clear by BOTH confirmed wolves in their respective first posts

If I'm seer ship was my n0 villa peek so he's the one I'd save but as long as we save one that's all that matters

[gabe]

ok. i'm listening. but i went back and reread aubrey's first post and dont have the same conclusion you guys have. can one of you spell it out?

hey all.

Just read through everything, here's some initial thoughts:

* Regarding those who bolded/targeted Kami: Day 1 person posting flippantly is definitely going to attract at least one wolf in the group of people targeting her.

Top Tier Tom, Ong, and Wug found her wolfy bc of that initial bold and poor reasoning. Gizmo and BID seemed less convinced that she did anything wolfy, and just found her a worthy d1 lynch bc they didn't find her posts serious enough. So there are 2 camps of Kami lynching -- those who took her posting seriously enough to think she is wolfy, and those who see that she's posting like she doesn't care and find her a liability.

conclusions from above: There is definitely a wolf in that group, even if I don't find voting for her particularly wolfy in and of itself (majority of kami votes are villagers, obv). Not sure if one mode of reasoning seems wolfier than the other yet but I think it's worth keeping in mind.

* Gizmo flipping to Rilla when he thought Rilla was wolfy and back to Kami when Rilla clarified his post makes Gizmo lean more villager than the rest to me. It looks authentic.

* chuckling IRL at the rocky convo. makes lilrascal lean village for me bc of how much of a stretch it is. seems more likely for a villager to try to catch someone on some insanely subtle slip (and be so earnestly relentless about it!) but if he is a wolf, that's very clever.

[gabe]

ive been studying werewolf some. does anyone have the rest of this slideshow?

[Luco]

people who know how i play are also playing. ask them. if im a wolf here im a fucking magician

+1

I know you guys don't listen to me, but I'm gonna say it anyway - wuf is like 90-95% villager right now.

[Luco]

ok. i'm listening. but i went back and reread aubrey's first post and dont have the same conclusion you guys have. can one of you spell it out?

Whole post written on the assumption that kami is V.

Read Aubrey's next two posts after that as well

[gabe]

Whole post written on the assumption that kami is V.

Read Aubrey's next two posts after that as well

i did and i still dont see why its that strong of a case for kami

[gabe]

you are saying aubrey couldnt have been faking that kami=village assumption?

[Luco]

you are saying aubrey couldnt have been faking that kami=village assumption?

Gabe you're normally really good at this, I'm disappoint. put your head inside aubreys and see what she sees, does she see a wolfsister?

First post she calls her a 'person posting flippantly' which is prob exactly what she sees tbh
Second post she goes to great detail defending her
Third post - first thing to note is 'lol chill, I misread something someone said about you' directed at kami which is a v lean in and of itself, then she goes on to bold her

It all stacks up to a kami clear imo

[Luco]

Heh, the ego on you to think that I posted because you mentioned me. I didn't even catch your earlier post until I saw this one. I'm doing my best to keep up with the thread and being around during the important times (ITA, in this case). I was for a BID lynch D1 but we'll ignore that, right? Granted, I would've changed my vote (probably to SIU) if I was present at deadline but I still think my BID bold should count for something.

It counts for a little b/c Aubrey and kami were 4-4 when you put bid on 3, so slight v lean for not voting kami I guess

But are you trying to claim credit for voting drew wolf even though he hasn't died yet?

[gabe]

i just did a lot of rereading and i think PNaw (bopo?) is a villager lock

the poisoned should be left to die even if they are 92% village. we cant get FPSed

my process of elimination keeps leading me to boog/bid/batm which i believe ong also called out exactly earlier. bigred is in the list but not really sure about him

BankItDrew
Bigred
BooG690
Kami
ShipItUp
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM

which could be 2 wolves among the following, if BID has given up (i expect a day 3 cc at this point):

BooG690
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM


despite boog shooting at BATM i think they can be wolves together. i considered hifi mightve been involved in something like this with rilla, but after some more review ive changed my mind

[gabe]

lynch boog
let the poison people die
tonight poison SMF or BATM
wolves can do whatever they want
tomorrow we lynch bigred or bid
we poison bigred or wuf
wolves kill whoever and poison whoever
and THE END it doesnt matter

gg wolves

[Luco]

You aren't wrong. In audrey's position it makes more sense for wolfbros to get villa cred then it does to defend her

There were a lot of people calling for her head (me, beck, you, kami and more). Takes a confident wolf to defend her hard in that spot

[Kami]

You guys are so silly
Just because a villager isn't spamming posts 24/7 doesn't mean you should let them die. They still count towards your villager count so stop being bitter mouth breathers and saying both poisoned people should die when minimum one of us is confirmed town

[gabe]

kami

[Kami]

gabe

[Luco]

You guys are so silly
Just because a villager isn't spamming posts 24/7 doesn't mean you should let them die. They still count towards your villager count so stop being bitter mouth breathers and saying both poisoned people should die when minimum one of us is confirmed town

I said this already about 20 posts ago

[Kami]

Yeah I saw your posts luco but gabe doesn't seem to get it

[Kami]

But yeah I'd save siu

[gabe]

sorry girl but i get it

there is no point in saving you

you arent 0% to be a wolf, you arent helping village, and its a good policy-poison response to your play this game. same for siu

[gabe]

You guys are so silly
Just because a villager isn't spamming posts 24/7 doesn't mean you should let them die. They still count towards your villager count so stop being bitter mouth breathers and saying both poisoned people should die when minimum one of us is confirmed town

smh. kami is so cool. i hope she stays because of how cool she is

[lilrascal]

Right, BID needs to go ASAP; if he's a wolf then he's the new Poisoner, and if he's a villager then he's of no use to us unless the village's Poisoner is sniped tonight.

But if the village's Poisoner doesn't die tonight then the village's backup should CC 100% of the time, as he's essentially an Innocent Child (as he can no longer become the backup) with the lynch of BID, and if we were to lynch wrong, then BID is an outed wolf. And a one-for-one trade at this point is well worth it.

Day One VC:

NightGizmo 8 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal, Hifi, ProbablyNotAWolff, Beck)
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Wufwugy, SuperMonkeyFace)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (TopTierTom, OngBonga)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)

Not Voting: MadMojoMonkey

I would bet anything that Kami and SIU are not wolves here, but it would also be optimal to know for certain what SIU's alignment is because it will shed a lot of light onto D1's VC. Statistcially, it's also likely that there's at least one wolf on Gizmo's wagon -- I would assume that if Kami and SIU are both villagers, then BR and rascal are both possibilities for wolves. HiFi, Luco, and bopo, too, but less so because they've all taken shots at wolves.

If SIU flips villager, then I will once again look at wuf and SMF. I trust gabe here. I need to re-read Ong's progression and see why he left his vote on rilla. BATM and BID both look back on Kami. And then there's Boog. Leaning villager on the latter but am still unsure.

I don't like the way you put yourself in green here. You're not cleared at this point like the dead villas you listed. There are others that are more clear than you like Luco and Hifi because of the rilla shot.

I agree with your entire post, bopo.

Yet I have a tingly feeling that I'm being duped by you and rascal. Very unlikely, but, y'know, I can't not acknowledge it.

I think wuf would be our best lynch today, honestly.

Lynch wuf

I've been thinking the same about you. We're both in the POE based on both of us shooting at JKDS. I'm just the one unlucky enough to hit a wofly villa. The one thing that looks good in both of our cases is that we had concencus between us on the rilla and Aubrey shots to start the ITAs.

I disagree with a wuf lynch. I think boog has been much wolfier and I think we gain more info from his lynch.

[lilrascal]

First quote doesn't belong there. These left over MQ's get irritating.

[Luco]

First quote doesn't belong there. These left over MQ's get irritating.

I stopped clicking the MQ button a long time ago. I copy & paste multiple quotes into a new window which doesn't work out any slower but avoids dat mq

[ProbablynotAWolff]

lynch boog

[lilrascal]

+1

I know you guys don't listen to me, but I'm gonna say it anyway - wuf is like 90-95% villager right now.

I don't have him that high, but I think he's likely villa and not a good lynch today.

[lilrascal]

i just did a lot of rereading and i think PNaw (bopo?) is a villager lock

the poisoned should be left to die even if they are 92% village. we cant get FPSed

my process of elimination keeps leading me to boog/bid/batm which i believe ong also called out exactly earlier. bigred is in the list but not really sure about him

BankItDrew
Bigred
BooG690
Kami
ShipItUp
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM

which could be 2 wolves among the following, if BID has given up (i expect a day 3 cc at this point):

BooG690
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM


despite boog shooting at BATM i think they can be wolves together. i considered hifi mightve been involved in something like this with rilla, but after some more review ive changed my mind

I pretty much agree with this, it pretty much mirrors my reads post from earlier.

[lilrascal]

Off to work now. See you this evening.

[Luco]

#820 when it was aubrey vs kami vs bid

Naw Bub Aubrey is a wolf and if u wanna vote me instead and confirm Urself wolf too you can

+v point for kami

[Luco]

lynch boog

Boog / BATM / SMF aren't posting enough to clear themselves from the PoE and prob never will.

SMF is great on tone but is def lower volume than last game so he's gotta stay in there

[Beck Novo]

@rascal, I put myself in green because I know from my perspective that I'm a villager.

[OngBonga]

Morning. Oh wait it's 1.30pm. How do I sleep for so long?

batm/boog/drew all fine lynches today. Not sure about wuf. For sure he'd hard defend aubrey as wolf, because he knows he does it as villager. With wuf, what I don't like is that come ITA, his attitude towards aubrey changed, like he knew she was likely to die and flip wolf, making him look bad. But wuf is smart enough to know that what he was posting, his turn on her at such a time, would look even worse when aubrey flips. So I think wuf is derp cleared here, I just don't see him turning on aubrey so blatantly if he knows she's about to flip wolf.

idk, I could go either way with wuf on this. On another day I could find this wolfy.

I hate his locked in vote though. wtf is that about?

I'll stick with BATM for now, at least until boog shows up. Is boog in Korea or USA these days? I can never keep up with him. If he's in Korea, then it's the middle of the night. Last thing we want to do is lynch the seer.

[baudib]

CHEW THE CHEEBA

Vote count
Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)
Wufwugy 2 - (Beck Novo, Wufwugy)
OngBonga 1 (TheBrokenATM)
TheBrokenATM 1- (OngBonga)
Beck Novo 1 - (BankItDrew)



Not voting: Kami, ShipItUp, SuperMonkeyFace, MadMojoMonkey, bigred, BooG

End of day is 12 hours, 5 minutes from now

[BooG690]

lynch boog

Boog / BATM / SMF aren't posting enough to clear themselves from the PoE and prob never will.

SMF is great on tone but is def lower volume than last game so he's gotta stay in there

You're right. I probably won't be able to post enough to clear myself. I'm around in ~1 hour increments about 2-3 times per day. I understand that isn't enough, especially relative to everyone else.

I'm not the best lynch today. The optimal lynch is BID but the village isn't budging on that. It almost seems obvious to a BATM lynch is better than lynching me. If we're going solely on post count, fine, BATM probably has more posts. However, his content is lacking and there's no substance.

Again, do NOT lynch me tonight. I'm going with lynch BATM here.

[baudib]

CHEW THE CHEEBA

Vote count
Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)
Wufwugy 2 - (Beck Novo, Wufwugy)
TheBrokenATM 2- (OngBonga, BooG)
OngBonga 1 (TheBrokenATM)
Beck Novo 1 - (BankItDrew)



Not voting: Kami, ShipItUp, SuperMonkeyFace, MadMojoMonkey, bigred, hifi

[baudib]

Look it's Kate Upton

[Luco]

The optimal lynch is BID but the village isn't budging on that.

He's a self resolving problem, lynching him today is actually sub-optimal for that reason

work is kicking my ass today but I'll be back on later with alcohol and a fresh read through, see what I can sniff out. I may switch to batm

[OngBonga]

Ok let's have a look at boog and BATM.

Boog... nothing out of the ordinary in his entrance. Gets behind me on the drew wagon. d2 thinks ship is a wolf due to wagon diverting to gizmo. The only thing I see of concern is his "night shot" comment, but it's hard to imagine a wolf typing that without him realising how bad it looks.

BATM... it's a lot more difficult to follow this guy's logic, if indeed it can be called that. There's no explanations for his reads, no detail, and lots of excuses for being busy. He's currently voting for me after saying I'm a wolf several times without once explaining why he thinks that.

It's pretty clear to me who the optimal lynch is. Sure BATM might be cleared if boog flips wolf. Same is true the other way around. Also, it's reasonable to say boog looks good if ship is a wolf, whereas BATM has interacted so little with people that he can't be considered cleared based on anyone else's flip.

boog has a lot more to offer.

[Luco]

Ok let's have a look at boog and BATM.

Boog... nothing out of the ordinary in his entrance. Gets behind me on the drew wagon. d2 thinks ship is a wolf due to wagon diverting to gizmo. The only thing I see of concern is his "night shot" comment, but it's hard to imagine a wolf typing that without him realising how bad it looks.

Boog explained that night shot, he thought you shot once per ITA. I remember reading it in real time and it didn't jump out at me as wolfy at all

[OngBonga]

Boog explained that night shot, he thought you shot once per ITA. I remember reading it in real time and it didn't jump out at me as wolfy at all

I saw boog's explanation. I think boog is only wolfy through poe right now. I can disregard that night shot comment. Just because you didn't find it wolfy, doesn't mean I didn't. I thought he was referring to game night, hence it struck me as wolfy.

[OngBonga]

In fact boog isn't even wolfy from poe if drew and ship are wolves.

[OngBonga]

Boog explained that night shot, he thought you shot once per ITA. I remember reading it in real time and it didn't jump out at me as wolfy at all

Wait, you're voting boog.

Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)

I think boog is likely to look good after a couple more flips. I don't like this wagon at all.

[Beck Novo]

Also, because we know that the wolves don't have a night shot, Boog's "slip" isn't a slip at all. It should be ignored, honestly.

Boog feels a lot better to me than BATM. I feel like the last time I saw BATM play as a wolf he slanked pretty hardcore. Would appreciate HiFi's thoughts here, because she's able to read him better than I am.

[Luco]

I saw boog's explanation. I think boog is only wolfy through poe right now. I can disregard that night shot comment. Just because you didn't find it wolfy, doesn't mean I didn't. I thought he was referring to game night, hence it struck me as wolfy.

Agree that boog is wolfy by PoE and not by anything standout that he's done. Could say the same about bigred / smf too.

And ofc you're entitled to read his night shot comment however you like, just giving you my take on it thats all

[Luco]

Wait, you're voting boog.



I think boog is likely to look good after a couple more flips. I don't like this wagon at all.

I already said I'm rereading & possibly switching before EoD and there's no MAJ today, so don't get a bee in your pants over where my vote is sitting rn

[MadMojoMonkey]

there's no MAJ today

Really? I missed this. If confirmed, my vote goes on BATM.

The ONLY reason I want to vote boog is that gabe is voting boog. boog is in POE, but he has posted villagery things. I have him as a villager in my list. I just respect gabe's villager game that much.

This is why I want to see a gabe v boog FIGHT. I don't see what gabe is seeing, and I want to see either boog cleared or boog obv wolf.

[BooG690]

For the record, I have gabe as a core villager along with Beck. This makes it difficult for this "fight" of yours to happen, MMM.

[Luco]

For the record, I have gabe as a core villager along with Beck. This makes it difficult for this "fight" of yours to happen, MMM.

Where do i sit from your pov boog?

[ProbablynotAWolff]

So bopo, let's start to finalize this list.

I'm game for
1) rilla
2) JKDS
3) Wuf

Why isn't aubrey on that list anymore?

Aubrey can still be on the list. But bopo explained how if JKDS was a wolf he SPEW'd Aubrey village.

Why not Wuf, HiFi?

Rilla then who, JKDS? Give me a second name.

I agree that two deaths during the first phase is best so we can reevaluate for the second phase.

really gently and painlessly suffocate AUBREY with a pillow

It's your call. I'm leaning Aubrey because JKDS is compelling and Aubrey is inconsistent, but JKDS also rubs me the wrong way.

Here is why I like Beck/Ong as town. Beck comes in to today pushing shots onto Rilla, then Ong chimes in about shots on aubrey and they follow through with advocating for their shots.

If Beck was a wolf, He would have to be bussing pretty hard to advocate for shots on two wolves. Especially since if he was a wolf, he directed me to shoot aubrey over JKDS who he would know is a villager. That is crazy bussing if he is in fact a wolf. He could have easily directed shots at villagers or pushed harder on shooting at BID because there is alot of anti-BID sentiment.

Ong looks really good because if he was a wolf, he knows that Beck already has a wolf at the top of his ITA list. It's suicidal for the wolves to actively push for another wolf as #2.

I'm posting this because I know some of you have ??? reguarding these two

[MadMojoMonkey]

You guys are so silly
Just because a villager isn't spamming posts 24/7 doesn't mean you should let them die. They still count towards your villager count so stop being bitter mouth breathers and saying both poisoned people should die when minimum one of us is confirmed town

You are so silly. Just because you mash buttons and angle-shoot the whole point out of this game doesn't mean you are contributing to the solution of the game, or have in any way demonstrated that sussing out wolves is part of your agenda.

Much as I agree with your math (and I math), this game is about people and why they do what they do. The math helps when it helps, and my math says that you were the target of the village poisoner.

You want to live? I haven't seen you make a single post which caters to this desire. You can angle shoot your way to clearing yourself, but you can't angle shoot your way into solving the game.

Why do you insult people who are on your team? Why do you avoid forming logical thoughts about other players in the game? What benefit, in your own estimation, do you offer the village? <- Serious question. Why should you be allowed to live besides "numbers, guys!"

Show evidence that you are even playing the game. Maybe next time you play, you wont be derided as useless.

***
BTW rascal's logic involves too many low % activities to get to the end result that the wolves both poisoned Ship and expect him to be healed, while it is supremely unlikely that Ship was the villager target.

Please weigh in on this discussion: Luco, Beck, gabe, anyone.

What % chance do you think that wolves poisoned Ship, who is himself a wolf?

[ProbablynotAWolff]

You are so silly. Just because you mash buttons and angle-shoot the whole point out of this game doesn't mean you are contributing to the solution of the game, or have in any way demonstrated that sussing out wolves is part of your agenda.

Much as I agree with your math (and I math), this game is about people and why they do what they do. The math helps when it helps, and my math says that you were the target of the village poisoner.

You want to live? I haven't seen you make a single post which caters to this desire. You can angle shoot your way to clearing yourself, but you can't angle shoot your way into solving the game.

Why do you insult people who are on your team? Why do you avoid forming logical thoughts about other players in the game? What benefit, in your own estimation, do you offer the village? <- Serious question. Why should you be allowed to live besides "numbers, guys!"

Show evidence that you are even playing the game. Maybe next time you play, you wont be derided as useless.

***
BTW rascal's logic involves too many low % activities to get to the end result that the wolves both poisoned Ship and expect him to be healed, while it is supremely unlikely that Ship was the villager target.

Please weigh in on this discussion: Luco, Beck, gabe, anyone.

What % chance do you think that wolves poisoned Ship, who is himself a wolf?

I personally am shocked that either of them were poisoned by the wolves

[MadMojoMonkey]

For the record, I have gabe as a core villager along with Beck. This makes it difficult for this "fight" of yours to happen, MMM.

So you're going to quietly sit there while one of your top V's is wagoning you? That V being gabe.

-.-

Why would you do this as a V? You have no suspicion of gabe's intent? You have no will to defend yourself?
That's going to make me want to vote you for my own reasons, never mind gabe's read.

[BankItDrew]

You are so silly. Just because you mash buttons and angle-shoot the whole point out of this game doesn't mean you are contributing to the solution of the game, or have in any way demonstrated that sussing out wolves is part of your agenda.

Much as I agree with your math (and I math), this game is about people and why they do what they do. The math helps when it helps, and my math says that you were the target of the village poisoner.

You want to live? I haven't seen you make a single post which caters to this desire. You can angle shoot your way to clearing yourself, but you can't angle shoot your way into solving the game.

Why do you insult people who are on your team? Why do you avoid forming logical thoughts about other players in the game? What benefit, in your own estimation, do you offer the village? <- Serious question. Why should you be allowed to live besides "numbers, guys!"

Show evidence that you are even playing the game. Maybe next time you play, you wont be derided as useless.

POTG

MMM is the best