Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

[lilrascal]

Welp passed out

I see there was a shot at me and not a single ounce of discussion before, during, or after. I find that interesting

You promised to do some work and provide some reads. There's lots to work with now with 5 dead now. Give us some reads if you wnat to get out of the POE.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

I understand the poe but I haven't even been given a wolf read by anyone so that's why I find that interesting

Gonna grab some food n then read thru thread

[lilrascal]

I understand the poe but I haven't even been given a wolf read by anyone so that's why I find that interesting

Gonna grab some food n then read thru thread

You keep promising to give some reads, but not delivering. I had you as neutral, but you're sliding toward my wolf pile.

And it's not because you're wolfy, it's because you're not being villagery at all.

[Beck Novo]

I'm comfortable with the Healer not touching either, we have enough room in the PoE without them.

[Beck Novo]

Do not vote for Ong, let's switch it up here.

Lynch Boog

[Beck Novo]

wolves are likely slanking here so let's make some moves

[Beck Novo]

lilrascal please vote?

[Beck Novo]

why the fuck do i keep thinking the deadline is tonight

ignore m

[lilrascal]

lilrascal please vote?

I'm working on a reads post now. I'll place a vote after I get done with that.

[lilrascal]

Do not vote for Ong, let's switch it up here.

Lynch Boog

I agree we should not be lynching Ong, but why Boog?

[OngBonga]

I still don't understand this idea of a "wasted shot." I'm fairly certain JKDS and Aubrey are vills and Wuf is pretty neutral for me. Isn't me NOT shooting ALSO a "wasted shot?" I still get my night shot.

SIU still looks like a decent shot since we get more information for tonight's lynch.

I still get my night shot.

Ummmm... what night shot?

[lilrascal]

Introduces BATM to Wuf

Who were you shooting here? I first read it as BATM, but I'm not certain of your intent there.

[OngBonga]

Lynch Ong ong

Solid case.

However, I have the perfect defence...

lynch BATM

[OngBonga]

I think last three wolves are drew, boog and BATM.

MVP me.

[Beck Novo]

I agree we should not be lynching Ong, but why Boog?

I honestly thought that the deadline was tonight so I voted to tie the wagons.

[Beck Novo]

I think last three wolves are drew, boog and BATM.

MVP me.

wolf!boog would not shoot wolf!BATM

I cannot see a wolf shooting another wolf after the massacre that was today. I can't honestly see a wolf ever shooting another wolf in a game this small. I may be wrong but it's not something I'm willing to consider this early.

[OngBonga]

Oh yeah boog shot BATM.

Ok boog can go into the null pile for the time being. I'd like to know what the fuck he's talking about with "night shot" though.

[lilrascal]

wolf!boog would not shoot wolf!BATM

I cannot see a wolf shooting another wolf after the massacre that was today. I can't honestly see a wolf ever shooting another wolf in a game this small. I may be wrong but it's not something I'm willing to consider this early.

I could see it happening when there's only a 15% chance of a hit. That's a small risk for a big reward of clearing yourself. Especially for shots on Aubrey today since she was vanilla.

[gabe]

I could see it happening when there's only a 15% chance of a hit. That's a small risk for a big reward of clearing yourself. Especially for shots on Aubrey today since she was vanilla.

i agree with you. i think beck choosing to not consider this is bad. i'm not saying beck is wolfy, im saying its a very real concern. for batm or hifi

[wufwugy]

lynch batm

[wufwugy]

hey hifi i think you're probably not a wolf so tell me why not batm

[wufwugy]

wait did batm shoot at rilla or somethign?

[lilrascal]

Here's where I stand right now, based on my reads and the ITA sessions:

Villas:
Luco - I had him as one of my top villas yesterday and IMO, he's lock cleared when you combine that with the rilla kill in the ITA session, especially with rilla flipping wolf PR
Hifi - I read her as neutral, but now almost as clear Luco for targeting rilla in the ITA

ong - Ong's been one of my top villa reads and combining that with his ITA shot on Aubrey reinforces that read
gabe - I've read gabe as wolfy this game (sorry), but others are reading him as villa, but his ITA of Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
PNAW - I haven't had much of a read either way on PNAW, but his ITA shot on Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile

Beck - I've had him as one of my top villas and even though he shot at JKDS (I did too), I don't think it was a bad shot, especially when he was calling for a rilla shot to start the ITA session.

Neutrals:
MMM - I had him in my villa pile since we had a lot of similar reads, but I don't like the fact that he didn't vote D1 and didn't participate in the ITA, so he's neutral now
Bigred - I see glimpses of villa in him, but I need to see more
SMF - Keeps promising to deliver some reads, but doesn't produce, he hasn't done anything wolfy, but he hasn't done anything villagery either
Kami - Either a wolf or uncaring/unhelpful villager - most likely dying tonight, so we'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure what to make of her shot at BATM
BATM - His lack of presence in the thread is not like BATM in either role. Him not paying attention and voting for Ong who shot at Aubrey is neutral for BATM. He tends to skim and not read and votes more on gut IMO. I'm not sure what to think of both Kami and Boog shooting him might mean. If Boog flips wolf, then I think BATM is likely villa.

Wolves:
Boog - He seems disconnected and hasn't been doing anything villagery. But it BATM flips wolf it will make him look much better with the shot he took during the ITA.
SIU - Meh game, has done nothing villagery. Let the poison take care of him.
BID - He seems to be openly wolfing now, he's not trying to help the village at all. If he wouldn't have been stripped of his powers, I'd say lynch him today regardless of his claim, but fortunately we can wait on him and let it resolve. Or lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't start to try and be a villager.

[wufwugy]

who went off script? i know siu did.

it's gotta be true that the wolves are far more likely to go off script with the shots. the villagers are the ones who will want to hit specific consensus targets and such

[lilrascal]

wait did batm shoot at rilla or somethign?

No, he didn't

[wufwugy]

Here's where I stand right now, based on my reads and the ITA sessions:

Villas:
Luco - I had him as one of my top villas yesterday and IMO, he's lock cleared when you combine that with the rilla kill in the ITA session, especially with rilla flipping wolf PR
Hifi - I read her as neutral, but now almost as clear Luco for targeting rilla in the ITA

ong - Ong's been one of my top villa reads and combining that with his ITA shot on Aubrey reinforces that read
gabe - I've read gabe as wolfy this game (sorry), but others are reading him as villa, but his ITA of Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
PNAW - I haven't had much of a read either way on PNAW, but his ITA shot on Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile

Beck - I've had him as one of my top villas and even though he shot at JKDS (I did too), I don't think it was a bad shot, especially when he was calling for a rilla shot to start the ITA session.

Neutrals:
MMM - I had him in my villa pile since we had a lot of similar reads, but I don't like the fact that he didn't vote D1 and didn't participate in the ITA, so he's neutral now
Bigred - I see glimpses of villa in him, but I need to see more
SMF - Keeps promising to deliver some reads, but doesn't produce, he hasn't done anything wolfy, but he hasn't done anything villagery either
Kami - Either a wolf or uncaring/unhelpful villager - most likely dying tonight, so we'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure what to make of her shot at BATM
BATM - His lack of presence in the thread is not like BATM in either role. Him not paying attention and voting for Ong who shot at Aubrey is neutral for BATM. He tends to skim and not read and votes more on gut IMO. I'm not sure what to think of both Kami and Boog shooting him might mean. If Boog flips wolf, then I think BATM is likely villa.

Wolves:
Boog - He seems disconnected and hasn't been doing anything villagery. But it BATM flips wolf it will make him look much better with the shot he took during the ITA.
SIU - Meh game, has done nothing villagery. Let the poison take care of him.
BID - He seems to be openly wolfing now, he's not trying to help the village at all. If he wouldn't have been stripped of his powers, I'd say lynch him today regardless of his claim, but fortunately we can wait on him and let it resolve. Or lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't start to try and be a villager.

but what about meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[lilrascal]

D2 ITAs Session One

HiFi shoots rilla - MISS
Luco shoots rilla - HIT
Ong shoots Aubrey - MISS
BID shoots Ong - MISS
bopo shoots Aubrey - MISS

D2 ITAs Session Two

gabe shoots Aubrey - HIT
Kami shoots BATM - MISS
SIU shoots wuf - MISS
Beck shoots JKDS - MISS
JKDS shoots SMF - MISS
wuf shoots BID - MISS
Boog shoots BATM - MISS

Can still shoot:

Bigred
lilrascal
MadMojoMonkey
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM

***Used purple so as to not confuse baudib.

Shots list.

Only one missing from Beck's post is my shot that killed JKDS.

@JKDS, sorry about that.

[lilrascal]

but what about meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

You weren't in the viewable area of my spreadsheet when I typed that up. That's what you get for being last alphabetically.

I'll update it.

[lilrascal]

who went off script? i know siu did.

it's gotta be true that the wolves are far more likely to go off script with the shots. the villagers are the ones who will want to hit specific consensus targets and such

I've seen it work both ways in ITA's. I've seen villagers take the hero shot and it sometimes works for them when they hit a wolf. I've also seen the wolves take out villa PRs for the game equity and also take out low level or at risk wolves to try and clear themselves for the long game.

[wufwugy]

actually we need to take a step back here

it is not that unlikely that rilla wanted the wolves to shoot him. he hates wolfing and he would look for an out. all that has to happen is somebody in the chat mention it and he would be okay with him being the target. with five total wolves, it is not bad whatsoever to kill one.

oftentimes when things are this sensible, though, the wolves didn't think to do it. but im not so sure we can clear people as easily as rascal has

[BankItDrew]

lynch batm

Solid argument

rescind
lynch batm

[lilrascal]

Updated list (this time with Wuf in it). Most villa to most wolfy from top to bottom. Gaps added to show some separation in levels of reads.

Here's where I stand right now, based on my reads and the ITA sessions:

Villas:
Luco - I had him as one of my top villas yesterday and IMO, he's lock cleared when you combine that with the rilla kill in the ITA session, especially with rilla flipping wolf PR
Hifi - I read her as neutral, but now almost as clear Luco for targeting rilla in the ITA

ong - Ong's been one of my top villa reads and combining that with his ITA shot on Aubrey reinforces that read
gabe - I've read gabe as wolfy this game (sorry), but others are reading him as villa, but his ITA of Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
PNAW - I haven't had much of a read either way on PNAW, but his ITA shot on Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile

Beck - I've had him as one of my top villas and even though he shot at JKDS (I did too), I don't think it was a bad shot, especially when he was calling for a rilla shot to start the ITA session.

Neutrals:
Wuf - I haven't seen old-wuf (which I think I could read better), but new-wuf is taking some getting used to, I'm not ready to put him in my villa pile, but I'm not seeing anything wolfy from him. What I do like is his consistency in his voting.
MMM - I had him in my villa pile since we had a lot of similar reads, but I don't like the fact that he didn't vote D1 and didn't participate in the ITA, so he's neutral now

Bigred - I see glimpses of villa in him, but I need to see more
SMF - Keeps promising to deliver some reads, but doesn't produce, he hasn't done anything wolfy, but he hasn't done anything villagery either
Kami - Either a wolf or uncaring/unhelpful villager - most likely dying tonight, so we'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure what to make of her shot at BATM
BATM - His lack of presence in the thread is not like BATM in either role. Him not paying attention and voting for Ong who shot at Aubrey is neutral for BATM. He tends to skim and not read and votes more on gut IMO. I'm not sure what to think of both Kami and Boog shooting him might mean. If Boog flips wolf, then I think BATM is likely villa.

Wolves:
Boog - He seems disconnected and hasn't been doing anything villagery. But it BATM flips wolf it will make him look much better with the shot he took during the ITA.
SIU - Meh game, has done nothing villagery. Let the poison take care of him.

BID - He seems to be openly wolfing now, he's not trying to help the village at all. If he wouldn't have been stripped of his powers, I'd say lynch him today regardless of his claim, but fortunately we can wait on him and let it resolve. Or lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't start to try and be a villager.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

actually we need to take a step back here

it is not that unlikely that rilla wanted the wolves to shoot him. he hates wolfing and he would look for an out. all that has to happen is somebody in the chat mention it and he would be okay with him being the target. with five total wolves, it is not bad whatsoever to kill one.

oftentimes when things are this sensible, though, the wolves didn't think to do it. but im not so sure we can clear people as easily as rascal has

crazy idea alert

hifi was the first person to shoot rilla and did it ASAP

FTR peeps know that rilla does not shine as a wolf like he does as a villager. his participation was lacking too

i can imagine in the den, rilla agreeing to take a bullet to give HIFI maximum cover. i do not think hifi should be included in the "100% village" camp like luco, ong, beck, me, etc

rilla could be fine with that plan. put him out of his wolf misery and give extreme cover to hifi. i mean there are 5 wolves so it wouldnt be that risky

thoughts?

That was kind of weird reading that wuf post since Gabe said it 7 hours ago..

[lilrascal]

Lynch Boog

I think he's been wolfy and this would help resolve BATM, at least to some extent.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Lists are wolfy

[lilrascal]

Lists are wolfy

[wufwugy]

Updated list (this time with Wuf in it).

[wufwugy]

That was kind of weird reading that wuf post since Gabe said it 7 hours ago..

people were just now talking about it

[lilrascal]

That was kind of weird reading that wuf post since Gabe said it 7 hours ago..

Nice catch BTW. I don't know if it means anything, but I don't think rilla was going to last long in this game. Several people were suspicious of him.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't necessarily agree that SIU is confirmed V.

IMO, the wolves knew we were going to poison Kami since that was essentially the concencus yesterday. Let's assume Kami is a wolf, a good play for the wolves would be to poison another wolf (SIU) to try and clear them, assuming the villa healer would save him. As Beck said last night, one of the poisoned players would be lock cleared, so I can see the wolves trying this as an FPS move especially with Kami most likely never getting saved.

This also prevented us targeting SIU in ITA's.

SIU and Kami could have come up with this idea to try and lock clear one of them.

I agree with gabe here and I don't think the healer should save either one here.

So the wolves think that since Kami was the obv village target that the healer would save the other one?
:/

[lilrascal]

So the wolves think that since Kami was the obv village target that the healer would save the other one?
:/

I can see it happening. Plus, I think there are a lot of players that would have tried that FPS play last night. Now that 2 wolves are dead, I don't think they'd try that. Now, they need to kill villas since they're losing at the moment.

[BooG690]

lynch boog for only saying something when his name gets mentioned. furthermore he didnt address what was said about him and just tried to seem casual about it. furthermore he has shown in the past he will hide from the town when he is a wolf

Heh, the ego on you to think that I posted because you mentioned me. I didn't even catch your earlier post until I saw this one. I'm doing my best to keep up with the thread and being around during the important times (ITA, in this case). I was for a BID lynch D1 but we'll ignore that, right? Granted, I would've changed my vote (probably to SIU) if I was present at deadline but I still think my BID bold should count for something.

Ummmm... what night shot?

At the time, I didn't understand I only got one shot. I thought I got a day shot and a night shot.

Lynch Boog

I think he's been wolfy and this would help resolve BATM, at least to some extent.

You shoot the villager that openly defended me and suddenly go to lynch me. How convenient.

[lilrascal]

You shoot the villager that openly defended me and suddenly go to lynch me. How convenient.

Yes, I shot a villager that was read by most of the village as wolfy. FWIW, I wasn't the first to shoot at him.

But, if you go back to when I left before the ITA's I was calling for a rilla shot.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I can see it happening. Plus, I think there are a lot of players that would have tried that FPS play last night. Now that 2 wolves are dead, I don't think they'd try that. Now, they need to kill villas since they're losing at the moment.

Are you considering the risk that when it fails, they've lost a wolf?
Are you fully putting the weight on the fact that your initial assumption is that the village healer KNOWS which poisoning was done by the wolves?

What is Ship's reputation for wolfing? It is like rilla's? 'cause if they're gonna try this ploy, I'd think tossing a weak/disinterested wolf under that bus makes a lot more sense.

***
Anyone else seeing what I'm seeing?

[MadMojoMonkey]

gabe vs boog

Round 1

FIGHT!

[MadMojoMonkey]

For the record, I have gabe as super-V and boog as prob V.

I trust super-V gabe's reads above anyone's, and if he says boog is bad, then I have to re-examine my read on boog.

I don't recall seeing boog's wolf game. Has he wolfed since his glorious return to WW, and I'm spacing it?

[lilrascal]

Are you considering the risk that when it fails, they've lost a wolf?
Are you fully putting the weight on the fact that your initial assumption is that the village healer KNOWS which poisoning was done by the wolves?

What is Ship's reputation for wolfing? It is like rilla's? 'cause if they're gonna try this ploy, I'd think tossing a weak/disinterested wolf under that bus makes a lot more sense.

***
Anyone else seeing what I'm seeing?

Yes, I am considering that. When I first saw the layout of this game I would have guessed the wolves would win ~55-60% because the ITA's are normally pro wolf.

The way things worked out today, I don't think the wolves have much of a chance. This was the most organized and pro villa ITA session that I've ever seen. Normally, I see more hero shots and the fact we killed 2 wolves and lost 1 villa is a huge swing in our favor.

If the wolves have had much experience with ITA's then, I think they may have thought that too.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

SuperMonkeyFace - the man

Beck Novo - good tone. Good pressure all around. I have doubts but it's heavily outweighed by positives

Bigred - villagery day 1 but idk what since. Fall off feels wolfy

BooG690 - truthfully, most recent posts have sold me he's a v. Before then I don't recall anything.

ProbablyNotAWolff - I don't remember the content for why I cleared him but I remember it being solid. Probably my top villa read

gabe - likely v
Hifi - likely v
lilrascal - likely v
Luco - likely v

Bankitdrew - null
MadMojoMonkey - null
OngBonga - null

ShipItUp -
Kami - I'm having trouble figuring out who likely got poisoned by who. There's been back n forth debate a little but it's mixed. Personally I'm fine with not saving either but if there's a consensus on the most likely wolf target and a main reason why that is than please share

TheBrokenATM - probably a wolf
Wufwugy - consistent meta range reads on literally everyone, almost every post. Wolf tell?

[SuperMonkeyFace]

FYI I just grabbed the live player list and fired off thoughts as I went thru it

It's in no fancy order but it's kind of going down villa to wolf

[BankItDrew]

I'll take null

rescind
lynch beck

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm good with the BATM lynch.

If Ship is not consensus cleared, then he can go. I have him in my wolfy stack, but the mechanics are giving me pause.

gabe v boog will help firmly establish where boog fits in the POE.

SMF needs to do something of note. IDK why he isn't being mentioned, but he's right that it's worth thinking about. He's not out of my POE, but there have been more obviously wolfy people to talk about.

bigred gave us some effort on D1, and nothing yet on D2. I want more involvement or I can vote for him, too.

BID is either just FPSing the hell out of being a villager or he'll be counterclaimed soon enough. If BID is a villager in this game, I prefer the old BID. If BID is a wolf, his approach to WW is dramatically approaching ong's old "FPS all the things" style.

[Beck Novo]

I'll take null

rescind
lynch beck

i don't hate this vote

[lilrascal]

gabe v boog will help firmly establish where boog fits in the POE.

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

[Beck Novo]

Right, BID needs to go ASAP; if he's a wolf then he's the new Poisoner, and if he's a villager then he's of no use to us unless the village's Poisoner is sniped tonight.

But if the village's Poisoner doesn't die tonight then the village's backup should CC 100% of the time, as he's essentially an Innocent Child (as he can no longer become the backup) with the lynch of BID, and if we were to lynch wrong, then BID is an outed wolf. And a one-for-one trade at this point is well worth it.

[Beck Novo]

Right, BID needs to go ASAP; if he's a wolf then he's the new Poisoner, and if he's a villager then he's of no use to us unless the village's Poisoner is sniped tonight.

But if the village's Poisoner doesn't die tonight then the village's backup should CC 100% of the time, as he's essentially an Innocent Child (as he can no longer become the backup) with the lynch of BID, and if we were to lynch wrong, then BID is an outed wolf. And a one-for-one trade at this point is well worth it.

Conversely, if there is no CC tomorrow, I will be forced to assume that BID is what he says he is, and is just playing like shit. So if there is an actual backup for the village, PLEASE CLAIM. If you don't, you're letting wolf!BID slide. This play is a win/win for us every single time.

[wufwugy]

what is poe again? every time i see it i think "person of (e)interest" but that can't be true

[Beck Novo]

what is poe again? every time i see it i think "person of (e)interest" but that can't be true

Process of Elimination

[BooG690]

what is poe again? every time i see it i think "person of (e)interest" but that can't be true

Process of elimination.

[ProbablynotAWolff]

I suggested I shoot HiFi during ITA. Met with resistance by Beck and supported by nobody. I still like a HiFi shot if other villagers agree it's a good idea.

Trying to shoot hifi the same day she tries to shoot rilla is bonkers. It is one thing to tinfoil on whether she did this for clearance but we arent going to yolo her the same day she tries to shoot a wolf.

because i thought you were a villager before hand and i was suspicious of hifi

also because hifi did this in the very first possible second. she wanted to make sure she got credit

if a wolf tried to ITA rilla, its 1000x more likely its hifi instead of you

I find it very weird that you think she can be a wolf but you are a confirmed villager for doing what she did but getting lucky and hitting.

yeah im shooting pnaw. dude slankin like a mother

bid's lack of invovlement really is puzzling me. i assume it's because he's butthurt over peopel wanting to lynch him, but really it could be he knows he faked and that he will die and so his words may come back to haunt the wolves

I agree, BID is acting bonkers

wtf is this? Drew is just spewing out lists here in an attempt to confuse us when he flips.

I mean ffs he has rilla as definitely wolf. And beck. This is just nonsense.

I agree with this as well

Shooting in 15

Guys do NOT shoot drew

A potentially confirmable villa even with a spent pr is still a big deal

If hes faking he dies when ccd and not before

the voice of reason

that's it? that's your only pick?

i can say the same thing you just said to me, that this person is the last person you should want to shoot.

wufwuf defense of aubrey

there is also a different tell i have that aubrey may have displayed that is a wolfy one

posted right after the defense. reads to me like he's trying to get on the right side of aubrey flipping wolf

I honestly just think Wuf is just saving face for when Aubrey flips wolf.

DID WE JUST BECOME BEST FRIENDS

well also sorta aubrey, but i HATE that im defending her. one of these days im going to be wrong.

plus it aligns with Wuf's Principles Of How To Always Win Werewolf 101 to kill her since she's so disengaged.

again reads like he knows her flip

im happy to get the time im wrong about her out of the way

my only guess is that the other wolves are poggers. she wouldnt much care about this game then. she likes ftr peeps but doesnt know poggers

this does not look like a legitimate thought. Also, is rilla a pogger, because if not then this seems more bonkers. If wufwuf is a wolf then i think this is a good look for poggers.

i like a jkds shot more since he hard defended my defense of aubrey.

peopple know that i know her, but peopel also know how often i hard defend the wrong people

This also seems like a fake thought. You want to kill jkds because he defended you when you HARD defended a wolf.

Would have added this convoluted nonsense to my shot quotes if it had been made beforehand.

shipitup talks sense

jesus christ this is such a wolfy post

Alot of the people were asking beck about shots, why do you single jkds out over everyone else.

hifi tried to shoot rilla and was blocked. then luco tried and he died. rilla died as the poisoner

i shot aubrey and she a dead wolf

i'm a confirmed villager and im weary of boog, hifi, and bid

i dont think bigred, luco, mojo, ong, beck shuold be threatened at this point. wuf seems unlikely to be a wolf, and so does jkds, but im open to changing those reads

You can't be a confirmed villager for shooting at a wolf and be wary of another villager for shooting at a wolf.

hey mod you see that guy barking in the bushes! it's a rogue bid! use your fire! kill it!

you point out how you think JKDS is wolfy for variosu reasons, then you take a low accountability shot at BID.

ok good session. there is lots of stuff to organize but i think we should have consensus on the SIU/kami healing first

it does seem likely the village poisoned kami and the wolves poisoned siu

this alone makes me want siu to get saved. but i know kami was attacked by 2 wolves. so theres that

neither seem to contribute much so if the healer didnt do shit i honestly dont even care

gabe, read aubrey's first post again, and there's your reason they poisoned kami.

kami is ldo healer save.

is that possible? in that case healer should do no shit for sure.

isnt kami likely wolf given rilla and aubrey treatment anyways? and all siu does is show up and try to gat teh goatwugy

what about aubrey spews kami as a wolf, I think it's complely the opposite.

im a confirmed villager trying to lead a wagon

i would not be going after ong or bigred at this point. boog is a smart lynch and we will be very well set up tomorrow

RIP jkds btw. him defending wuf defending aubrey is not something he would do as a wolf

This is probably somethign that should have been up when people were asking to shoot him, not after.

Lynch Ong ong

I'm with Luco on the BID thing. BID is not winning this game as a wolf. There's no need to rush into things.


@ong: rilla voted for SIU. rilla is wolf poisoner.
Wolves would never in a million years poison Kami who was practically lynched on D1 and no one was happy about.
Villager poisoner picks Kami 'cause at worst it's a dead V who wasn't hunting.
rilla poisoned SIU.


SIU is nearly conf V, right?

Furthermore: who told rilla to poison SIU if that's the case? Not an FTR reg.


Stop me at any point

i like where your head is at.

I don't necessarily agree that SIU is confirmed V.

IMO, the wolves knew we were going to poison Kami since that was essentially the concencus yesterday. Let's assume Kami is a wolf, a good play for the wolves would be to poison another wolf (SIU) to try and clear them, assuming the villa healer would save him. As Beck said last night, one of the poisoned players would be lock cleared, so I can see the wolves trying this as an FPS move especially with Kami most likely never getting saved.

This also prevented us targeting SIU in ITA's.

SIU and Kami could have come up with this idea to try and lock clear one of them.

I agree with gabe here and I don't think the healer should save either one here.

villagy

I understand the poe but I haven't even been given a wolf read by anyone so that's why I find that interesting

Gonna grab some food n then read thru thread

I think you were wolfy at this point

SuperMonkeyFace - the man

Beck Novo - good tone. Good pressure all around. I have doubts but it's heavily outweighed by positives

Bigred - villagery day 1 but idk what since. Fall off feels wolfy

BooG690 - truthfully, most recent posts have sold me he's a v. Before then I don't recall anything.

ProbablyNotAWolff - I don't remember the content for why I cleared him but I remember it being solid. Probably my top villa read

gabe - likely v
Hifi - likely v
lilrascal - likely v
Luco - likely v

Bankitdrew - null
MadMojoMonkey - null
OngBonga - null

ShipItUp -
Kami - I'm having trouble figuring out who likely got poisoned by who. There's been back n forth debate a little but it's mixed. Personally I'm fine with not saving either but if there's a consensus on the most likely wolf target and a main reason why that is than please share

TheBrokenATM - probably a wolf
Wufwugy - consistent meta range reads on literally everyone, almost every post. Wolf tell?

I no longer think you are wolfy

I'll take null

rescind
lynch beck

I think you fake claimed and now you realized that you are boned.

[ProbablynotAWolff]

Right, BID needs to go ASAP; if he's a wolf then he's the new Poisoner, and if he's a villager then he's of no use to us unless the village's Poisoner is sniped tonight.

But if the village's Poisoner doesn't die tonight then the village's backup should CC 100% of the time, as he's essentially an Innocent Child (as he can no longer become the backup) with the lynch of BID, and if we were to lynch wrong, then BID is an outed wolf. And a one-for-one trade at this point is well worth it.

Isnt BID roleblocked?

[Beck Novo]

Day One VC:

NightGizmo 8 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal, Hifi, ProbablyNotAWolff, Beck)
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Wufwugy, SuperMonkeyFace)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (TopTierTom, OngBonga)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)

Not Voting: MadMojoMonkey

I would bet anything that Kami and SIU are not wolves here, but it would also be optimal to know for certain what SIU's alignment is because it will shed a lot of light onto D1's VC. Statistcially, it's also likely that there's at least one wolf on Gizmo's wagon -- I would assume that if Kami and SIU are both villagers, then BR and rascal are both possibilities for wolves. HiFi, Luco, and bopo, too, but less so because they've all taken shots at wolves.

If SIU flips villager, then I will once again look at wuf and SMF. I trust gabe here. I need to re-read Ong's progression and see why he left his vote on rilla. BATM and BID both look back on Kami. And then there's Boog. Leaning villager on the latter but am still unsure.

[Beck Novo]

Thank God, bopo is here. Reading your post now.

[gabe]

PNAW, yes, hifi and i both aimed at a wolf to start off ITA. the difference is i know i am a villager, so when stating my theory on why we can not clear hifi, i must factor that in

and re: "This is probably somethign that should have been up when people were asking to shoot him, not after."

i said it here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...27#post2249627 which was alluding to this exact thing. i admit i did a bad job of explaining my thought process for the post.

[BooG690]

Incoming POG circle jerk. I'm going to sleep. Night.

[Beck Novo]

Incoming POG circle jerk. I'm going to sleep. Night.

You're leaving just as this thread is about to get good? B'awwwwww.

[wufwugy]

posted right after the defense. reads to me like he's trying to get on the right side of aubrey flipping wolf

if im wolf i shoot her myself every time without hesitation.

ive been wolf twice in the last four (five?) years. both times i was very big on the idea of hurting other wolves. ftr strategic culture is probably not as advanced as other forums (i think our meta is maybe more advanced though). all it really takes to get major super epic v cred here is to get your name on as a big driver of the death of a wolf.

this does not look like a legitimate thought. Also, is rilla a pogger, because if not then this seems more bonkers. If wufwuf is a wolf then i think this is a good look for poggers.

he's not but he doesn't like wolfing as is.

This also seems like a fake thought. You want to kill jkds because he defended you when you HARD defended a wolf.

i said i liked it more than previous. notice that i didnt shoot him and instead shot the guy i have wanted dead at basically every turn. in fact if bid flips wolf you will finally have a decent piece of evidence that i could be a wolf since i would try to kill him as a wolf. if he and i were both wolves, id be all over him in the den about how he's a dead man walking and the best course of action is for the remaining wolves to slam him and gain the v cred

shipitup talks sense

shipitup confuses "thinking about things" with "convoluted"

you point out how you think JKDS is wolfy for variosu reasons, then you take a low accountability shot at BID.

i post a lot of bullshit but i like my ending spot to be correct

what about aubrey spews kami as a wolf, I think it's complely the opposite.

yeah it could be this instead.

[Beck Novo]

I agree with your entire post, bopo.

Yet I have a tingly feeling that I'm being duped by you and rascal. Very unlikely, but, y'know, I can't not acknowledge it.

I think wuf would be our best lynch today, honestly.

Lynch wuf

[BankItDrew]

Isnt BID roleblocked?

Yes! Beck is leading the village to it's demise.

[ProbablynotAWolff]

VV:
MMMonkey
beck
luco

V:
gabe
Hifi
lilrascal
Ong

prolly villa:
monkey
bigred

Wolf POE:
BATM
BID
wufwuf
Boog

I have too many villagers and since I dont think BATM/Boog can be W/W(because boog shooting BATM) it means i'm probably clearing some people too lightly. Thats why there are so many tiers in my villa list.

I disregarded Kami/SiU. I think they are most likely v/v. I think if you are gonna heal either of them i'd heal kami(because im pretty sure aubrey spews her villa), but I get the arguement for not healing either of them.

I think wufwuf has been openly wolfing all afternoon. I dislike his hard defense of aubrey. Then when she flips wolf he starts pushing JKDS for defending him for defending Aubrey which is next level bonkers. Also the pushing of JKDS for telling Beck to guide his shot is pure madness since alot of people were trying to get concensus on shots. Then when he goes to take his shot he shoots BID over JKDS which would be crazy if BID weren't basically lolcatting as an uncounterclaimed villa PR.

I have Boog as a wolf as well. I dont like how he was pushing for Hifi after she shot at rilla. He was also an aubrey defender.

I think BATM can be a wolf here based on the fact that I have so many people being villagers and he hasn't lit the game on fire. Based on Boog's shot if Boog is a wolf i dont think BATM is ever a wolf. With rilla dead and aubrey dead, I dont think wolves cannabalize themselves there, they need to kill villas.

I think BID's claim resolves itself, however is posting basically amounts to lolcatting.

I was suspicious of monkey because of his reluctance to post reads. I took this as him being reluctant to make a stance in the game and wolfy, however i liked alot of the reads on his list.

I had bigred as a villa but I think he has completely fallen off.

[wufwugy]

I agree with your entire post, bopo.

Yet I have a tingly feeling that I'm being duped by you and rascal. Very unlikely, but, y'know, I can't not acknowledge it.

I think wuf would be our best lynch today, honestly.

Lynch wuf

here let me make it easy for you and lock my vote in on myself

lynch wuf

you're seeing only what you want to see.

[Beck Novo]

Ship and Kami get poisoned

Does anyone save them?

Hm? Coincidence?

Just poking around.

Also, BID voted Aubrey out of "self-preservation" several hours before the end of the phase. Does he do this as a wolf?

[ProbablynotAWolff]

Wuf,

My problem is that I think hesitate is exactly what you did when ITAs were coming around and Audrey was the target. You were posting defenses of her then posting about if she has a wolf tell. It looke dlike you were working up the nerve to shoot her and if you shot her you would look good but the problem is Gabe didn't hesitate and shot and hit her. Now we're left to determine whether or not you were really reconsidering her, or if your a wolf trying to make your flip on your stance of her villagy.

[Beck Novo]

here let me make it easy for you and lock my vote in on myself

lynch wuf

you're seeing only what you want to see.

Well that was stupid. Dude, there's still almost 24 hours left, I could've changed my mind.

Help me see what you see, then. Start picking apart the game with me.

[wufwugy]

I think wufwuf has been openly wolfing all afternoon.

people who know how i play are also playing. ask them. if im a wolf here im a fucking magician

I dislike his hard defense of aubrey.

i have hard defended her every single game i have played with her.

Then when she flips wolf he starts pushing JKDS for defending him for defending Aubrey which is next level bonkers.

i respect his game just that much. im known for being a doofus who constantly accidentally hard defends wolves. it's so bad that i used to have the nickname "honorary wolf". so when somebody hard defends my hard defend, it's not unreasonable to think he could be buddying.

Also the pushing of JKDS for telling Beck to guide his shot is pure madness since alot of people were trying to get concensus on shots.

the way he said it. reread that shit. sounded like a guy who wanted to say it just right and make sure everybody knew he was on beck's side.

Then when he goes to take his shot he shoots BID over JKDS which would be crazy if BID weren't basically lolcatting as an uncounterclaimed villa PR.

ive wanted bid dead for a long time. the only reason he's alive is because he claimed

[ProbablynotAWolff]

Wuf,

I like your responses by the way.

I hate that you self voted.

I need to marinate on this