Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[Hoopy]

baudib looks like a burnout villager (no offense), I think as a wolf the burnout would be less apparent because he'd have his team supporting him in the chat and that would motivate him.

[lilrascal]

baudib looks like a burnout villager (no offense), I think as a wolf the burnout would be less apparent because he'd have his team supporting him in the chat and that would motivate him.

This is a good point and may be true. The bigred lynch is just getting rid of deadweight, not wolf hunting.

Based on that, the next wolf in the wagons would be Wuf. What is your take on Wuf?

[Keybored]

OP WinCon: "KGB win when they are in greater or equal number to the ISIS agents. ISIS wins by killing all the KGB agents."

So, we have to kill ALL the baddys.

Assuming all wolves are tied to villagers, the best case scenario ATM is:
V-V
V-V
V-V
V-W

However, a highly likely outcome down the road is:
V-V
V-W

Given this, let's say the V-V team think they're both V-V and are working together (e.g., Keyb-Uco).
They both vote against the V-W team.
But it's 3 to lynch.
So the V of V-W will have to self-lynch.

If you're not working with your partner, the village simply cannot win.

[Hoopy]

Bigred is deadweight, but that doesn't make him a wolf. They may eventually need to go (or could skate to a win if the villas figure this out), but there are more likely wolf candidates among the rest.

What are your thoughts on your partner Wuf?

Neutral to village, the self vote looks like frustration. The private chat is no help.

I won't vote him today.

[lilrascal]

OP WinCon: "KGB win when they are in greater or equal number to the ISIS agents. ISIS wins by killing all the KGB agents."

So, we have to kill ALL the baddys.

Assuming all wolves are tied to villagers, the best case scenario ATM is:
V-V
V-V
V-V
V-W

However, a highly likely outcome down the road is:
V-V
V-W

Given this, let's say the V-V team think they're both V-V and are working together (e.g., Keyb-Uco).
They both vote against the V-W team.
But it's 3 to lynch.
So the V of V-W will have to self-lynch.

If you're not working with your partner, the village simply cannot win.

This is why everyone must keep an open mind that their partner might be a wolf and constantly reassess.

[Keybored]

Rascal...If you're back on Ong's side, why not vote with him? I'll move to Baudib and reckon Luco would too. Done.

[Luco]

I still have a problem with boog. I need to go back and check but didn't he kinda surface on d1 as his wagon got heat? And I remember his first read d1 was kinda shallow and vca based - Luco bolded and rescinded rilla, therefore Luco and Rilla are wolves. His other suspicion of rilla was basically a difference of opinion over revealing partners and most of us seem to have realised that any stance on that issue is fairly role neutral.

And his contribution today has been again voting based but ignoring tone, content etc - the voting says there are two w-w teams and it's me, key, baud and Rilla?

I need to hear more from him.

[lilrascal]

Rascal...If you're back on Ong's side, why not vote with him? I'll move to Baudib and reckon Luco would too. Done.

While I do think Ong is most likely a villager, we don't agree on who the wolves are. Also, I don't blindly follow anyone except a known seer. I could switch to Baud, since I think he's likely a wolf, but I think Wuf is the better vote here. Once new information becomes available thru the thread and votes, I may change my vote.

I don't think the Bigred vote is a good idea. It's a lazy vote today IMO when we have wolfier players.

[baudib]

BAUDIB...What you say above is accurate. For ref use: Ong/Keybored were wolves together who eventually won. It was my 3rd or 4th WW game ever and I was completely riding on Ong's coattails. He did the battling and I did busy work to look active. Foot note, Rilla was a wolf that game also and he up/quit day2 cuz of it. Dude don't like or play wolf (weird, but somehow true).

But this game is different. There are no specials or night actions! Nobody has to worry about getting killed (only lynched). To win, the village only has to keep its V-V pairs alive. I'm >90% sure my partner is V, so as long as everyone else is throwing spears around, I find it my responsibility to avoid stray bullets; aka, keep my foot out of my mouth. Is that wolfy, lurkish behavior? Sure. But if you've watched my partner, Luco, you'll see he's done a rather poor job of keeping his head down. But it's tough to hold back when so much shit is flying around and you've got an opinion on most of it. FWIW, I also believe BID/MMM and Ong/Rascal are in the same category. IMO, these 3 pairs are the key to village success and need to be protected.



Assuming all wolves are paired with villagers, to provide you with my reads...
THERE IS A WOLF IN EACH OF THESE PAIRS:
Baud-Rilla
Wuf-Hoppy
Boog/Monstr
Daven/BigRed

My vote has been sitting on BigRed cuz there's two things I hate most in this game: non-voters, non-players. The BigRed wagon has had some momentum yet he still remains MIA. That ain't right; now and esp down the road. In the second half of the game, if Red is still around, we'll have zero info to work with and that's not acceptable.

However, if the Baudib wagon get near to 8 while the BigRed wagon remains low, I'll snap lynch your ass in a second.

This is a long post saying nothing pro-village. You said there's a wolf in BigRed-Daven and then say you're voting BigRed because he's doing something that is completely role neutral for him. Then you say you'd snap vote for me for....no reason at all. This is exactly the flavor of the moment type voting you did as a wolf.

[Hoopy]

From my perspective the wolf equity for wuf/me is ew(wuf)=0.25 + ew(me)=0.

Obviously my own view of my wolf equity is no use to anyone, but it's just about the only certainty in this game for me.

[baudib]

Baud, what do you expect us to do with this? You've cherry picked quotes from "ancient history" games.

How do I know how to interpret any of that since it's so out of context? And no, I'm not going to go and reread old games. Reading old games isn't that useful, every game is different.

The quotes are extremely relevant when people are giving Keybored V-cred for things that "a wolf wouldn't do" when Wolf Keybored does exactly those types of things.

Daven looks like a completely lost cause this game, so if he's not going to keep up or even vote based on the knowledge of Keybored that he should have, the least we can do is not take his opinions very seriously (even though he's probably a villager).

[lilrascal]

I still have a problem with boog. I need to go back and check but didn't he kinda surface on d1 as his wagon got heat? And I remember his first read d1 was kinda shallow and vca based - Luco bolded and rescinded rilla, therefore Luco and Rilla are wolves. His other suspicion of rilla was basically a difference of opinion over revealing partners and most of us seem to have realised that any stance on that issue is fairly role neutral.

And his contribution today has been again voting based but ignoring tone, content etc - the voting says there are two w-w teams and it's me, key, baud and Rilla?

I need to hear more from him.

I've been suspicious of Boog as well, but I haven't tried to make the hard case for him yet. I put some effort into it today, but I haven't followed up since I think it can wait until tomorrow since there are more likely wolf candidates and it didn't appear anyone else agreed with me on it.

[baudib]

For Keybored to say he rode Ong's coattails is completely laughable. Ong did 90% of the strategic planning but Keybored being considered a lock villager is what won the game. He completely pocketed MMM (who self-lynched when Keybored turned against him). Keybored was the consensus MVP of the game.

[Luco]

Yes the bigred lynch is somewhat getting rid of dead weight, and it will get harder to make a move like that as the game develops. If we don't lynch him now we never will, don't think we can figure him out later.

I'm not overly impressed with davens posts today but they are trending in the right direction. And regardless of baudibs role if he is frothing at the mouth saying daven is V then daven gets a v lean.

So I'm not excited about a bigred daven lynch, but for reasons stated I don't think lynching baud and Rilla is the right move today. I don't trust baudib but damn he's trying and I could be wrong, and Rilla is a very strong asset that would be a coup for the wolves. I'm not pumped over any lynch actually.

I will take yet another look at wuf and hooplar

[baudib]

updated estimated EW

Boog 80%
Wuf 75%
Keybored 53%
Ong 40%
Luco 35%
Hoopy 30%
Rascal 25%
BigRed 25%
Daven 22%
Monstr 15%
Rilla 2%
BID 0%

[baudib]

meh i left out MMM, which probably doesn't matter.

[lilrascal]

The quotes are extremely relevant when people are giving Keybored V-cred for things that "a wolf wouldn't do" when Wolf Keybored does exactly those types of things.

Daven looks like a completely lost cause this game, so if he's not going to keep up or even vote based on the knowledge of Keybored that he should have, the least we can do is not take his opinions very seriously (even though he's probably a villager).

Maybe on this forum past game meta can be more valuable since the player pool is so small and from what I've heard, it's mostly the same players playing again.

That said, it's easy to get a misread on that from a good player taking advantage of that meta.

[Keybored]

Well...BigRed is 0% helpful to us and Daven is only slightly above that. I can't say if BR is V or W cuz he's not playing. But I do get W vibes off Daven. I'll respect your wishes, Baudib, and bear my reasoning for Daven. But I'm not inclined to engage a prolonged battle with you. Ppl can make their assessment on each of us as they see fit. BTW, most have me on their V list. So I see no reason to work all day trying to convince you of what a lot here already feel. Move on to your next victim, wolf...

[baudib]

It seems to me that it's likely there is at least 1 W-W pairing.

[baudib]

Well...BigRed is 0% helpful to us and Daven is only slightly above that. I can't say if BR is V or W cuz he's not playing. But I do get W vibes off Daven. I'll respect your wishes, Baudib, and bear my reasoning for Daven. But I'm not inclined to engage a prolonged battle with you. Ppl can make their assessment on each of us as they see fit. BTW, most have me on their V list. So I see no reason to work all day trying to convince you of what a lot here already feel. Move on to your next victim, wolf...

this is not a good post.

[Luco]

It seems to me that it's likely there is at least 1 W-W pairing.

If you run the numbers it seems like having one w-w pairing may actually be best for the wolves, otherwise they would have to work through every single v-v pair to win

[BooG690]

Do any of you guys do Saturday things?

I kept myself pretty caught up on the general drift of things and just finished catching up thoroughly. From what I gathered: daven made a comeback and baudib yelled and berated at everyone (that was basically it, right?). I did some digging on the whole MMM/gabe thing re: final vote. MMM's story checks out as he was itching to kill rong before gabe/rong outed as a pair.

Everybody dismissed the possibility of two W/W links which leads me to believe that I'm an idiot. However, if Baud/Rilla DO come back as W/W, we've got this crazy guy to lean on for answers.

I'm more confident than ever in a baudib lynch given his behavior. And there, there's your weekend update.

[baudib]

Boog clearly taking it 1 mislynch at a time. Keep it simple, right?

[baudib]

Boog makes at least 5 people in this game who talked about my behavior being off or something when he clearly has zero concept of how I play WW as a villager.

[BooG690]

Oh, is you berating the entire village the norm? I haven't played in years.

[baudib]

If you run the numbers it seems like having one w-w pairing may actually be best for the wolves, otherwise they would have to work through every single v-v pair to win

yes. but getting the V-V pairings lynched would still be a priority.

AFAICT the only people floating the idea of Baud-Rilla as W-W when we are clearly V-V are Wuf and Boog...this only makes like 4 different ways they are easily connected to each other.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm scared to let any of these wagons die because I'm pretty sure that there's a wolf in one of the pairings of the people we have wagoned and just on the off chance I'm wrong on bigred (though I need to read up on daven) or baud/rilla I want to have the option to make someone make the deciding vote because I think this lynch will shape the rest of the game

[baudib]

Oh, is you berating the entire village the norm? I haven't played in years.

I wouldn't characterize it as such but sure. Putting pressure on people who aren't contributing or likely villagers who have their heads up their asses is an important function of village play.

I think your buddy Wuf characterized my wolf game perfectly in a recent game when he said I was managing way too hard. This is the nut opposite of managing.

[BooG690]

I still maintain it makes sense. I'm stunned it was written off so quickly. You only recently got off your knees from in front of rilla.

[BankItDrew]

Daven, dead villagers played worse than you did and have half the information as you.

This strikes me as grasping as straws in an attempt to come up with something to say.

Baudib can't possibly believe what he said is true.

[BooG690]

I wouldn't characterize it as such but sure. Putting pressure on people who aren't contributing or likely villagers who have their heads up their asses is an important function of village play.

I think you're the only one that sees your play as such.

[baudib]

This strikes me as grasping as straws in an attempt to come up with something to say.

Baudib can't possibly believe what he said is true.

of course it's true and of course I believe it.

I mean, yeah, Drew, I just totally struggle to come up with things to say in WW.

[OngBonga]

I can see why the wolves want boog gone. He does fuck all over the weekend, then utters eight sentences and nails a wolf.

baudib is wolfing all day long here guys. I'm glad people are starting to see it.

Pairs -

ong/rascal - it's weird but I'd actually be happier if he was still reading me as a wolf, that would confirm him as villager to me. However, his tone is screaming villager, his sincerity has me fooled if he's a wolf. I'm happy we're v/v

boog/monstr - if boog/monstr is wolf, then wolves were waiting for a villager to make the move at end of d1 to save him, rather than trying to get gabe/rong mislynched. I'm not buying that at all. The mislynch on offer is just too big for wolves to ignore if there's a wolf on the ropes. If I were a wolf with boog, I'd have been rallying for gabe/rong votes a lot earlier than I did. There was nothing until I stirred some action. They are v/v, and if they get lynched, we deserve to lose.

drew/mojo - both I'm tone reading as villagers. Both of them are pretty much bad liars, and I'm yet to sense dishonesty from either of them. v/v

-----

PoE has me looking at the remaining four pairs...

daven/bigred - daven's efforts can be wolf or villager. I've seen him as wolf do that spam posting catch up thing, he also does that as villager. He's very self aware of his own tendancies and that of others, hence good poker player, so I have a hard time putting my trust in him or any tentative read I have on him. His gabe vote stinks, but other than that I got nothing. He's null, so is bigred. I'm really not comfortable defaulting these pair into the village pile. They can't be left until last, that's what I'm getting at. But I don't feel they should be priority either. I kinda lean v/v, which has me thinking there's at least one w/w pair.

luco/keyb - keybored looks good, and his read on luco is to be trusted. Luco kinda feels null, I don't find him easy to read because he mixes it about so much. However, PoE is biting here, and if this pair are v/v, then all wolves are paired together. I'm thinking luco kind of has to be a wolf. I lean w/v with these two.

wuf/hoopy - now we're getting to the serious contenders. Hoopy looks good based on his refulsal to give wuf v points. Wuf, on the other hand, is looking really dodgy. He's refusing to engage hoopy based on displeasure of the setup, and he hinted that self preservation was important to him. There's also a serious lack of other wolfy suspects. There's gotta be a wolf in here.

rilla/baudib - enough said about baudib, he's a wolf. rilla is probably a villager, but if there's a w/w pair, this is most likely.

Basically, if the wolves are all split up, it's... baud/rilla, wuf/hoopy, luco/keyb, daven/bigred
If it's w/v, w/v, w/w, then baud/rilla w/w, wuf/hoopy w/v, and one of the other two for the last w/v
If it's w/w, w,w, then it's gotta be rilla/baudib and wuf/hoopy, but I think that's very unlikely.

[OngBonga]

yes. but getting the V-V pairings lynched would still be a priority.

AFAICT the only people floating the idea of Baud-Rilla as W-W when we are clearly V-V are Wuf and Boog...this only makes like 4 different ways they are easily connected to each other.

Tell me again why you and rilla are clearly v/v

[baudib]

boog/monstr - if boog/monstr is wolf, then wolves were waiting for a villager to make the move at end of d1 to save him, rather than trying to get gabe/rong mislynched. I'm not buying that at all. The mislynch on offer is just too big for wolves to ignore if there's a wolf on the ropes. If I were a wolf with boog, I'd have been rallying for gabe/rong votes a lot earlier than I did. There was nothing until I stirred some action. They are v/v, and if they get lynched, we deserve to lose.

This is why the village is going to lose if you lynch me. Because Ong could very well be a villager and actually believe this. I mean, I'm not sure why he believes it, but he's said it often enough that it sure seems like he does.

The movement that caused Gabe to be lynched instead of Boog is 1000% textbook standard wolf play, the perpetrators should be thoroughly examined, pressured and probably lynched as a matter of housekeeping/wagon resolution. Wolves are off-wagon or bussing and Gabe becomes a viable wagon...the equity swing is too great for wolves to ignore.

If Boog-Gabe are V-V there is absolutely no reason for the wolves to switch at any point in the day.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@Ong: You have no doubts bout baud? I've got a couple. I think he's hitting the nail on the head with key, I just can't tell if he's saying it because I started it and he's running with it.

What do you think of key re baud's comments?

[baudib]

Tell me again why you and rilla are clearly v/v

Rilla is a disinterested wolf, this is his villager game 100%.

I'm the most prolific villager in the game, trying to steer the village off obvious mislynch candidates (Daven), trying to clear villagers and exhort them to better effort and lapping the field in original ideas and work.

[OngBonga]

Here's why baudib is a wolf.

If he's a villager, he would be thinking "maybe ong is right, maybe boog is clear". He's flat out insisting I'm wrong. There's no flexibility, because he needs boog/monstr as mislynch. Last time baudib was a wolf, I owned his ass on d1 and sent him packing. After the game he buttered me up so bad, insisting I'm a great player etc. So if he think I'm so god damn fucking awesome, why isn't he thinking I might actually be right to clear boog? Why does he insist that the wolves would sit back and do nothing while a wolf is about to be lynched, slightly ahead of a gabe/rong v/v pair?

baudib needs this mislynch. That's why he's not budging.

[OngBonga]

Last time baudib was a wolf, I owned his ass on d1 and sent him packing.

Sorry d2, not that it matters.

[baudib]

I'm pretty convinced that if there's a wolf in Ong/Rascal, it's Ong 2x-3x as often as Rascal. Ong has been wrong about me so often that he should never have this confidence and he should damn well know that I'm not stirring the pot this much as a wolf.

Ong is too good and too smart about wagonomics to clear Boog based on D1 voting.

[OngBonga]

@Ong: You have no doubts bout baud? I've got a couple. I think he's hitting the nail on the head with key, I just can't tell if he's saying it because I started it and he's running with it.

What do you think of key re baud's comments?

baudib screams wolf motivation with everything he says.

As for key, I think he's probably a villager while luoc is a wolf, but I could be wrong. One way or another, I feel like there's a good chance of a wolf in keyb/luco. They're not in my clean pile.

[baudib]

Here's why baudib is a wolf.

If he's a villager, he would be thinking "maybe ong is right, maybe boog is clear". He's flat out insisting I'm wrong. There's no flexibility, because he needs boog/monstr as mislynch. Last time baudib was a wolf, I owned his ass on d1 and sent him packing. After the game he buttered me up so bad, insisting I'm a great player etc. So if he think I'm so god damn fucking awesome, why isn't he thinking I might actually be right to clear boog? Why does he insist that the wolves would sit back and do nothing while a wolf is about to be lynched, slightly ahead of a gabe/rong v/v pair?

baudib needs this mislynch. That's why he's not budging.

Nope, I'm a villager and I'm telling you that if you're a villager, your reason for clearing Boog is utter hogwash.

We need to look no further than last game to see wolves parked on a wolf (you, D1) despite viable villager wagons to disprove your theory.

[MadMojoMonkey]

[baudib]

Ong not wanting to lynch either Boog or the late Gabe voters is really really troubling.

[OngBonga]

Nope, I'm a villager and I'm telling you that if you're a villager, your reason for clearing Boog is utter hogwash.

We need to look no further than last game to see wolves parked on a wolf (you, D1) despite viable villager wagons to disprove your theory.

Yes but I did something crazy, there was a reason the wolves were on me. What the fuck are they doing sitting around doing shit all while a wolf gets lynched? Yes it happens sometimes, but I'm playing probabilities here. Out of the three other wolves, you'd expect at least one of them to make an effort to shift the votes away.

I notice that you continue to suggest there's a good chance of a wolf between me and rascal. But you're not arguing that I was the wolf who tried to save boog. You're just throwing some shit back at me in the hope it looks like villager on villager violence. If you were actually a villager trying to figure shit out, I'd be your top fucking wolf suspect with boog, because you know I'm crazy enough to balls out save his ass, then give him villager cred by insisting that the wolves were going to let him die. That's the kind of cheeky shit I'd try and pull. But you're not thinking about that. Why? Because that's what a villager would be thinking.

You're a lock wolf imo.

[OngBonga]

Ong not wanting to lynch either Boog or the late Gabe voters is really really troubling.

Wut? Look at my recent reads list. wuf/hoopy and daven/bigred are in my "to lynch" pile.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Nope, I'm a villager and I'm telling you that if you're a villager, your reason for clearing Boog is utter hogwash.

We need to look no further than last game to see wolves parked on a wolf (you, D1) despite viable villager wagons to disprove your theory.

It can easily be argued that gabe simply had to park on Ong because gabe would have been lock-wolf if he didn't jump on that.

Then daven and myself would not let go of the fact that ong-wolf would def. do this, and there was nothing in the rules that said a dayvig was not a wolf role.

So the wolves parking on Ong in that scenario were put in a tough spot, forced to respond to D1 (arguably) spew.

[baudib]

Yes but I did something crazy, there was a reason the wolves were on me. What the fuck are they doing sitting around doing shit all while a wolf gets lynched? Yes it happens sometimes, but I'm playing probabilities here. Out of the three other wolves, you'd expect at least one of them to make an effort to shift the votes away.

I notice that you continue to suggest there's a good chance of a wolf between me and rascal. But you're not arguing that I was the wolf who tried to save boog. You're just throwing some shit back at me in the hope it looks like villager on villager violence. If you were actually a villager trying to figure shit out, I'd be your top fucking wolf suspect with boog, because you know I'm crazy enough to balls out save his ass, then give him villager cred by insisting that the wolves were going to let him die. That's the kind of cheeky shit I'd try and pull. But you're not thinking about that. Why? Because that's what a villager would be thinking.

You're a lock wolf imo.

I've got 8 people including my partner telling me you're never a wolf here. It's something I'm weighing very highly and I thought you were a villager too. The possibility that you're a villager is high enough that you're not the priority when there are 3 wolfier candidates.

[baudib]

Wut? Look at my recent reads list. wuf/hoopy and daven/bigred are in my "to lynch" pile.

Then your logic is inconsistent. Follow it backwards; if Wuf is a wolf, why does he switch to Gabe and not consider Boog at all?

The Gabe lynch points to Boog being a wolf, Wuf's vote points to him and Boog being wolves together. This is easily the most likely/logical W-W pairing in the game.

[baudib]

Also, Ong, the level of your self-awareness of how you'd play that scenario as a wolf is interesting.

Perhaps even reminiscent of how you dayvigged an extremely likely villager as a wolf because you'd never be so crazy to do that as a wolf.

[OngBonga]

Then your logic is inconsistent. Follow it backwards; if Wuf is a wolf, why does he switch to Gabe and not consider Boog at all?

The Gabe lynch points to Boog being a wolf, Wuf's vote points to him and Boog being wolves together. This is easily the most likely/logical W-W pairing in the game.

If wuf is a wolf, he jumped on board because gabe/rong mislynch is a shit load better than boog/monstr, especially since the latter can be left for next day's mislynch. The wolves were doing nothing because both wagons were v/v, so why draw attention, just stay quiet. Once I rallied for gabe votes, daven and wuf jump on board. Maybe a wolf thinks I take the fall for the v/v flip, and lunges for the fistpump mislynch.

What the gabe wagon does not do is implicate boog, like you are suggesting. Not unless you think I'm a wolf.

[OngBonga]

If you're suggesting wuf would make a ballsy late vote away from a wolf and onto a villager, then why wasn't he making more of an effort earlier to save boog? Why leave it so late? He's demonstrated that he's not bothered about making blatant wolfy votes, he obviously has the confidence he can explain himself. If wuf is gonna save boog, he's gonna try to do it earlier, rather than risk no action in the last hour.

wuf/boog buddies makes little sense to me.

[baudib]

If wuf is a wolf, he jumped on board because gabe/rong mislynch is a shit load better than boog/monstr, especially since the latter can be left for next day's mislynch. The wolves were doing nothing because both wagons were v/v, so why draw attention, just stay quiet. Once I rallied for gabe votes, daven and wuf jump on board. Maybe a wolf thinks I take the fall for the v/v flip, and lunges for the fistpump mislynch.

What the gabe wagon does not do is implicate boog, like you are suggesting. Not unless you think I'm a wolf.

no, a thousand times no. If you're a villager it makes it all the more likely that wolves followed you onto Gabe. For one thing you have no idea how Wuf would play this as a wolf, you said yourself that the idea of lynching Gabe on D1 was amazing. Wolves could be scared of the blowback of lynching vill Gabe.

And wolves don't give a shit about one mislynch over another. You're suggesting that Boog isn't a wolf because wolves would have made a play earlier (they actually did, btw) and that the wolves would expose themselves over V-V wagons but not V-W wagons?

you can't be serious.

[baudib]

If you're suggesting wuf would make a ballsy late vote away from a wolf and onto a villager, then why wasn't he making more of an effort earlier to save boog? Why leave it so late? He's demonstrated that he's not bothered about making blatant wolfy votes, he obviously has the confidence he can explain himself. If wuf is gonna save boog, he's gonna try to do it earlier, rather than risk no action in the last hour.

wuf/boog buddies makes little sense to me.

Wuf wasn't even on Boog. Wuf/Boog buddies makes all the sense in the world. Villager Wuf (and villager Ong) should be up in arms about how D1 played out.

[baudib]

If wuf is gonna save boog, he's gonna try to do it earlier, rather than risk no action in the last hour.

wuf/boog buddies makes little sense to me.

There is zero reason that this is true. The fact that you keep making a big deal out of the timing when OBVIOUSLY, AS DEMONSTRATED, there was plenty of time to shift the lynch is ridiculous.

[OngBonga]

And wolves don't give a shit about one mislynch over another.

Of course they do. I'd give a shit. The conversation in the den, if there was any at the time (it usually perks up around deadline), would have been one of the following...

(a) can we save boog, and if so, how
(b) can we get gabe/rong lynched instead, and if so, how

If they were talking about anything else, they are amatuers.

[BankItDrew]

Did we get who wuf's partner was?

I motion that we reveal our partners.

jk i'ma troll

[baudib]

Boog-Monstr is such a low accountability D1 lynch it makes no sense for the wolves to make a wolfy shift to Gabe if Boog-Gabe are V/V.

none

[baudib]

My own resistance to the Boog lynch was precisely because it seemed too easy.

[baudib]

Also, Ong (and mostly everyone else) continue to ignore how pure the EOD Boog wagon was.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@BID: Are you still solid on Ong?

I read his tone this game as far more sincere and direct than when I self-lynched against him and key.

[OngBonga]

Boog-Monstr is such a low accountability D1 lynch it makes no sense for the wolves to make a wolfy shift to Gabe if Boog-Gabe are V/V.

none

Unless someone else can take the fall for it.

This is why you should asusme I'm a wolf with boog, if you think boog looks bad. I turned up and rallied for gabe votes. wuf, your target, sat back and waited. If boog is a wolf, then why did wuf move so late? You're ingoring this, because you don't want a boog/wuf link to be broken.

If both wagons were indeed v/v, then wolves didn't need to do anything. That's why with an hour to go, nothing was happening. That's why it took a villager to stir some action. That's why boog/monstr are v/v.

[baudib]

Of course they do. I'd give a shit. The conversation in the den, if there was any at the time (it usually perks up around deadline), would have been one of the following...

(a) can we save boog, and if so, how
(b) can we get gabe/rong lynched instead, and if so, how

If they were talking about anything else, they are amatuers.

Wuf is exactly an amateur wolf. also he was AFK.

[OngBonga]

Also, Ong (and mostly everyone else) continue to ignore how pure the EOD Boog wagon was.

How pure? How the hell do you know how pure it was?

[baudib]

If both wagons were indeed v/v, then wolves didn't need to do anything. That's why with an hour to go, nothing was happening. That's why it took a villager to stir some action. That's why boog/monstr are v/v.

You contradicted yourself within one paragraph. Indeed, if both wagons are V/V, they don't need to do anything. This goes directly against you saying that the wolves would risk all to lynch villa Gabe instead of villa Boog. They wouldn't.

You waving this around like it clears Boog is insane.

[baudib]

How pure? How the hell do you know how pure it was?

The people who voted for Boog are on no one's lynch list. Stop playing dumb.

[OngBonga]

Basically I strongly suspect baudib is bussing wuf, and is then hoping to use the wuf flip to secure boog's mislynch.

[OngBonga]

You contradicted yourself within one paragraph. Indeed, if both wagons are V/V, they don't need to do anything. This goes directly against you saying that the wolves would risk all to lynch villa Gabe instead of villa Boog. They wouldn't.

You waving this around like it clears Boog is insane.

They didn't need to do anything. They chose to because the mislynch that I offered them was too good to refuse.

[baudib]

MMM/BID: If I get lynched you'll need to carry the ball. Ong cannot be trusted. He's either so far off his game he believes Boog is cleared based on nothing, or he's a wolf playing a very strong game.

There's a wolf in Keybored/Luco, too. You'll need to pray Daven is a villager and that he'll contribute something before all is lost.

[baudib]

They didn't need to do anything. They chose to because the mislynch that I offered them was too good to refuse.

It is not too good to refuse. The net equity result of sitting still and letting V Boog get lynched instead of V Gabe is far superior than jumping to Gabe.

[OngBonga]

It is not too good to refuse. The net equity result of sitting still and letting V Boog get lynched instead of V Gabe is far superior than jumping to Gabe.

Nope, because there's no noms, gabe is v, so is rong, and boog/monstr are future mislynch bait.

Wolves are taking the gabe lynch all fucking day long if boog is a wolf. Even with boog/monstr being v/v, they'd want gabe/rong, but would be less enthusiastic about making a play. But make no mistake, they were very happy with the d1 lynch, regardless of boog/monstr.

[MadMojoMonkey]

BTW, I'm pushing rascal up my Village list. I still read Ong as tone pure compared to his wolfy performances of late.

If we're (seemingly all) right about BID, and I know I'm V, then I'm half-way to a big victory chance.

I'm looking at the sensibility of clearing Ong/rascal as V/V.

If the village can clear 2 V/V pairs and then bag any W, there's an almost guaranteed victory (almost, because the V/V pairs must be correct, but if they are, victory is assured.)

The clears need to be strong, though.

[baudib]

DADV is inaccurate. DA = dead wolf or V/V wagons

crazy late shifts are indicative of V/W wagons

[OngBonga]

Anyway, enough blah blah. Let's lynch baudib so we can start lynching wolves.

[MadMojoMonkey]

DADV?