Ultimate Werewolf

[MadMojoMonkey]

This is the least pro village thing I've seen posted so far.

I don't know about the hyperbole, but I agree it's redic.

[baudib]

TBH I just skimmed over the last two pages. I feel like we're doing way too much. We already have way more than enough to kill MMM and Daven. Half of us fully agree on why MMM has to die (no MMM I haven't pulled back on you, I think you're very likely to be cursed, you're acting exactly as I would predict a caught cursed to act), and Daven is a dead wolf walking

I think we're getting far ahead of ourselves. We need to make those two deaths happen (or clear them by making strong cases for why they're bad lynches, which nobody has done) before we move on to others


My only other comment is that I caught the same thing Luco did about Monstr. It almost looks like he's a wolf giving his suspected cursed pick motivation to fight back. He is absolutely right about villagers being the only people who know their role so they need to fight (I've made that argument several times), but that argument is weird when it's directed outwards. In that post, he basically said "hey MMM I think you're a villager so you should fight fight fight and get people off you". Hell, he may even have said it about Daven as well. The reason it's so strange to direct at others that when villagers don't defend themselves, it should tell us that hey maybe they're not villagers. This could be Monstr accidentally using his special knowledge of roles

So let's kill MMM today, then spend 1 hour in d2 piling on Daven, then spend d3 discussing the next step. Ofc I don't expect everybody to agree with me, but I agree with myself, so there


BTW even though I just skimmed the latest posts (I do that from time to time), I still go back over them deeply when I'm trying to find something/make a case. I've greatly increased the amount of my game is going back over old stuff, and I guess that's part of why I have cut down on my text. It's harrowing to review previous posts when so much of it is fluff

Jesus Christ, I think Wuf is the voice of reason in this village.

[OngBonga]

How can baudib and I have such a contrasting reaction to wuf's post?

[wufwugy]

How do you know nothing has changed since then?

Why, if daven is a wolf, is mojo not dead?

Because Daven is a dead wolf walking. Only dumb wolves would cinch MMM. Besides, they may think he's the cursed

This sort of thing happens a lot. Wolves tend to think better than "omg if I don't bold this guy then a wolf will die". Wolves know better than to so obviously put themselves in those spots that catch them later

[MadMojoMonkey]

"then spend 1 hour in d2 piling on Dave"
This is the part I find redic.

[baudib]

I could go for a BID lynch. He's been underwhelming to say the least.

The thing that really bothers me is the number of people who say they think MMM is probably a villager, and there are wolfier players around, but let's lynch MMM anyway.

Ong's point about not trusting the village to handle MMM is valid though.

[OngBonga]

Because Daven is a dead wolf walking. Only dumb wolves would cinch MMM. Besides, they may think he's the cursed

Maybe. This is d2 discussion. What we don't do is lynch mojo and blindly line up daven without even stopping to consider the flip. You're telling me a 1hr snaplynhc on d2 is pro village? You're talking out of your arse. One minute you say to me that you've only skimmed the thread, then you're telling me nothing has changed for me to reassess daven. The only reason I think daven is a wolf is because he seems to be randomly waving his finger at me. His attack on me feels so fucking fake. But that's gut. Maybe I'm misreading him. idk. If mojo flips villager then I'm certainly going to reconsider daven, because daven is waaaay too strong to just snap lynch based on gut. And might I remind you it's still d1. Your "dead wolf walking" read on daven is gut. Or bullshit. One of those.

You're presenting bad villager strategy as pro-village. I think wuf finally got wolf.

[baudib]

How can baudib and I have such a contrasting reaction to wuf's post?

It's actually the first time this game that Wuf has posted any sort of meaningful game-related content, so that was refreshing to see.

I really feel like white-knighting MMM but I'm resigned to the fact that the village needs him resolved. Dhuber's sanity seems to rest upon MMM getting deaded.

[Hoopy]

Vote Count 1.5

MMM - 6 (wuf, rong, dhuber, aubrey, BID, daven)
daven - 6 (baudib, keybored, Luco, MMM, bigred, monstrman)
keybored - 1 (keith)
monstrman - 1 (gabe)
wuf - 1 (Ong)

No vote - (JKDS)

9 votes to lynch!

MMM leads on the tiebreak due to reaching 6 votes first today

[baudib]

That is a fair point, Ong. I'm not for turbo lynching anyone on D2 anymore than I am for runaway wagons on D1. But mostly I'm in agreement with Wuf that Daven fully outed himself.

[Hoopy]

Just over 4 hours remain.

[OngBonga]

I don't think the mojo situation does need to be resolved. I did, but I don't now. I think when we can talk about optimal cursed stratgey a little more openly, people will realise that mojo is unlikely to be cursed.

[OngBonga]

How did daven fully out himself? Did I miss something?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I have enough anti-wuf sentiment from earlier this game to put him at BEST a meh by end of day.

I am interested in what he's saying, but he's tainted himself too much thus far for me to be sheeping him TODAY.

[OngBonga]

wuf is a wolf if mojo and daven are both villagers, that I'm 95% sure about.

[baudib]

I don't think the mojo situation does need to be resolved. I did, but I don't now. I think when we can talk about optimal cursed stratgey a little more openly, people will realise that mojo is unlikely to be cursed.

Hmmm, I actually feel that MMM has decent Cursed equity, but this is how I feel about Daven talking about you being Cursed. I think you'd take a different line but it's not a good idea to talk about why IMO.

It'd be nice if we can get the Cursed out of the way first but it'll probably take a miracle for that to happen if MMM isn't Cursed.

[MadMojoMonkey]

[Keybored]

Keith...We're distracting the village and with only a few hours left, the two camps are pretty much solid. Let's put aside our disagreements until we gain more info on today/tonight action. Then we can reassess each other's actions from today.

[baudib]

MMM the thing that has me convinced you're a villager is that you think your death will somehow be good for the village. This is actually quite similar to how I played my first villager game here. I wanted to create a lot of controversy, try to soul read the whole wolf team on D1, and said, Hey, I must be pissing the wolves off. Look at how many votes I got! You can find them all after I die.

and guess what, it was a disaster. None of the wolves ended up voting for me, and all I did was create a huge distraction.

If you're a villager, your death doesn't help the village. If you're a villager, you need to fight till your dying breath and not just accept the lynch.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I've posted my best analysis.
I've invested time outside of game to help people get a base line on aubrey who hasn't played with this group recently.
I've got my vote on the person I find most wolfy.
I've done my best to clear the people who say things that feel like they read my mind. That's villager sign.

What more you want a monkey to do?

[OngBonga]

daven put mojo on L-1 at around 8am, I rescinded to put him back to L-2 at around 5pm, that's 9 hours that his neck was on the block for with no hammer. The fact it was daven who put him at L-1 makes it less of a solid read, it's ballsy for the last two wolves to both be wolves. But still, if mojo is village and daven wolf, then why wouldn't they just seal the mojo lynch and move on? I managed to talk my way out of lynch so much last game that really I think everyone should realise that all you need is a viable explanation, and doubt does the rest. If I were a wolf with daven and had the hammer vote, I'd probably be looking for a way to justify a mojo vote, and imo it would have been easy based on points that I had already made. A wolf can easily jump on mojo to finish him and point to my comments.

If daven and mojo are both wolves, well mojo would have been thrown under the bus by now for sure.

It possible the wolves don't want to finish him because he's cursed, but who do the wolves prefer to lose? The person who *might* be cursed, or a definite wolf? Again they would seek to finish mojo.

I can't see any reason why mojo hasn't been finished by the wolves, except either a) mojo is a wolf and daven villager, or b) both mojo and daven are villagers, and the wolves are holding off in the hope that daven gets killed instead of mojo.

Either way, wuf wanting to snaplynch daven d2 whatever happens is not what a thinking villager should be suggesting.

[baudib]

^^ I don't necessarily agree with anything, but again there's a post that Wolf Ong probably doesn't make.

Ong, I knew if you were a villager I could drag the WIM out of you. Like I do with your mom.

I almost wanna say at this point that MMM has been the MOST villagery person ITG. And it's in sharp contrast to what Daven's done. I think a wolf trying to take out Cursed would be a decent strategy for villager cred, and it seems like that's all he is interested in doing.

Also, I missed it when I first woke up but I like how Rong wants to lynch me for doing what half the village is doing: Deciding that Daven is infinitely more wolfy than MMM, but remaining open to the idea that MMM could be a non-villager.

Maybe it's because I was the one who pointed out his inconsistent progression on Daven/MMM.

[rong]

Urgghj no no no no no

[rong]

My progression was entirely consistent.

Your statement, specifically, that mmm will always get lynched before end game is what sets you apart and makes your stance anti village.

[Keith]

Keith...We're distracting the village and with only a few hours left, the two camps are pretty much solid. Let's put aside our disagreements until we gain more info on today/tonight action. Then we can reassess each other's actions from today.

why, I've shown clearly that there are contradictions between what you say and what you did, i questioned you about them and you just want to sweep it under the carpet. Look what happened last game , i nailed 3 wolves d1 and the village ignored the people i targetted . Are you hoping for the same thing to happen again so that you can eat me again tonight. How about you just answer the points i have made. There still plenty of time for a wagon to form on you if you refuse to answer. perhaps that would persuade you to answer the points i made.

[OngBonga]

There's a thrid possibility -

c) daven was the third wolf to join the mojo wagon, meaning there're relying on a villager to finish it.

I don't think that's particularly outrageous. It's a matter of time before we get a wolf team with the confidence to blatantly be on the same wagon. But it's still probably in the "flopping a boat" range of improbabilities.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I dunno what's going on but it feels like you guys are really just rolling over and eating the lynch here

I'll be honest, if it was me on the chopping block I'd be engaging EVERY SINGLE PERSON in the thread to try and grasp why they were voting me and try and get them off of me.

Votes on me:
aubrey, BID, daven, dhubs, rong, wuf

Votes I understand:
daven, dhubs, wuf

Votes I don't understand:
aubrey, BID, rong

***
#194

Hmmmmm.... I quite like lynching Daven, even though he has a point about mmm.

Mmm's response seems legit coming from him, but it's still standard if he is flying solo.

I think he needs to go. And if he is actually trying to wave a come get me flag, kudos on the research.

To be clear he's sold [me] he's a villager but he has to go for pulling the trick in the first place.

mmm

(note slight edit for clarity ; "nd = me")

***
#227
Aubrey wags a finger at rong for "Jumped on MMM 'cause MMM made himself super easy target."

#241

anyway yeah, I don't know, I'm out for tonight. we'll see what tomorrow brings after class (so like 9pm EST).

although I should probably vote... days are 72 hours yeah?

for now I will jump on the mmm bandwagon because I am curious to see what comes of that -- people's suspicions of him were the most founded, I thought -- and the lynch will be revealing either way since there was so much discussion of him.

lynch mmm

i might be able to check in tomorrow during work so that's not necessarily fixed

#242

Gonna make this real easy.

lynch mmm

BID is sheeping aubreywolf, who's snuggling rong?

[rong]

Mmm if you've read any of my discussions with baudib today my reasons for lynching you should be loud and clear.

[gabe]

day 1 and we're on page 7. god damn.

You've been back and forth on mojo. Why do you say he would be a good lynch?

he cant help the village because no one is going to listen to him. and he has to be a better wolf probability than a random person

You caught gator with exactly this a few games back (during his forever wolf run). What do you think of the evidence baud has produced that shows this is normal and in-character for a monstr villager? Surely that reduces the tell to null?

im giving 0 credence to baudib

My only other comment is that I caught the same thing Luco did about Monstr. It almost looks like he's a wolf giving his suspected cursed pick motivation to fight back.

yes!! its like the whole village wants to give him a pass because its his first game, and the unusual stuff he does gets swept aside. "oh hes new, so lets just cross our fingers and hope we arent getting burned!"

[gabe]

Then you pointed out how sometimes you can find dissonance in players' thinking...the last time I recall you using "dissonance" in an argument was you putting together a couple of Gator quotes and saying, "Dissonance is a wolfy trait."

im so glad you brought this up because ive been saving this argument for when it was time to unload on monstrman:

This is a very bad reasoning for a vote. For one, I don't imagine you've ever played with me so you actually cannot say with any degree of certainty wether or not I'll be impossible to read (and for your information I am actually very easy to read, its not hard just do this: monstrman is a villager!) Look! You read me already. (####) Don't worry I've played a great deal of games in my time so I am by no means inexperienced, I was merely commenting that I don't have any experience playing with any of you guys specifically and many of my reads are derived from tells that I have accumulated from various little posts and consistencies that I find while playing with people throughout the course of many games.

does everyone see the dissonance here? i think its clear. he tells me what i said about him was "very bad reasoning." then later in the same post, he explains the exact reasoning I was using, except its applied to himself. the 2nd bold part is exactly how i think about the situation, but earlier in his post he said this was "very bad reasoning" !!! its like in his head he was trying his hardest to defend the first attack on him because hes a wolf (or special?), but the other half of his brain was trying to look like a villager.

[OngBonga]

Just glanced through the list of daven's posts and he does look out of character spazzy. But why haven't the wolves killed mojo if daven is a wolf? I suppose the most compelling reason is because there's a seer. Still, wolves normally have to take risks to get the mislynches they need. daven was very much in the danger zone, and still is. For daven to be a wolf, they're complacent. I'm certain they're not both wolves because mojo would've been bussed. While I'm not liking daven's content, I'm finding it very difficult to believe that the wolves sense no urgency with a wolf being so close behind mojo. The chance was there to kill mojo, and it didn't happen. I think that's because the wolves were hoping daven would get it instead.

[OngBonga]

I can see what you're getting at gabe. I'm not sure I agree, but I like your tone.

[baudib]

My progression was entirely consistent.

Your statement, specifically, that mmm will always get lynched before end game is what sets you apart and makes your stance anti village.

oh yeah it's consistent. "I think Daven is a wolf but I'll listen to him and lynch the guy I think is a villager."

There can't be anything more anti-village than that.

[baudib]

Ong, I should have said I dont agree with "everything" you said, not "anything."

I can see what you're getting at but I'm not a wagon-analysis guy. I especially am not giving credence to wagon analysis before flips even happen.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Secondly, you're stating that day 1 reads should take precedent over managing potential late game problems. That's fine if it's your opinion but you need to weigh up the strength of your conviction vs the level of trouble that could later be caused.

In this instance my suspicions are weak and the potential trouble is big. So yeah, I wanna lynch mmm in spite of the majority of his behavior falling into the villagery side of things.

A) only if there is no preferred option
B) Am I your only concern among the player pool for late game?

If you're never letting him get to end game then it's even more reason to lynch him now.

You don't think I've earned enough V-points for at least this day, considering you personally believe I'm V?

[baudib]

Gabe, I don't know why you would give me 0 credence, I've played more games with Monstr than anyone in WW.

If anything, making contradictions is a huge villager tell for Monstr, because he flops around and changes his mind literally within the same sentence. He's super spazzy.

I wouldn't say he's never a wolf here, I didn't love his start, but the recent posts he made have me feeling pretty comfortable with him. I always tinfoil over him early on and then he makes himself pretty crystal clear.

I feel really confident that he wouldn't fool me, I'd describe his villager tone as being as tone pure (once you get used to him) as Rilla.

[baudib]

oh and in b4 I'm defending a wolf.

[MadMojoMonkey]

wuf is a wolf if mojo and daven are both villagers, that I'm 95% sure about.

I agree with this read. If daven flips V, and then I flip V on D2, wuf is the one who argued against a 3rd wagon here.

In b4 "there's no time!" Cause there's still just over 2 hours to go.

[baudib]

I agree with this read. If daven flips V, and then I flip V on D2, wuf is the one who argued against a 3rd wagon here.

In b4 "there's no time!" Cause there's still just over 2 hours to go.

MMM, this almost reads like you're talking about yourself in a theoretical universe where you might be a villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

So... completely irrelevant but I want to know...

Ong, Post #33... did that thought come to mind about 5 seconds after inhaling?

Posts #35 & #52... did those thoughts come to mind about 1 minute after inhaling?

[MadMojoMonkey]

MMM, this almost reads like you're talking about yourself in a theoretical universe where you might be a villager.

The hypothetical is the "I get lynched on D2" part.

[OngBonga]

I can see what you're getting at but I'm not a wagon-analysis guy. I especially am not giving credence to wagon analysis before flips even happen.

It's just that regardless of mojo's flip, I can't see daven being a wolf. When daven is a viable lynch for today, and when wuf is advocating snapping him off tomorrow, then I feel it's entirely appropriate for me to be speculating on this now rather than after the lynch.

[baudib]

Hmmmmmmm.

I have to think about this.

The feeling I had was that there could be wolves too scared to move. Also, the possibility that one of Daven/MMM is Cursed muddles things quite a bit.

[baudib]

Ong, when you were a villager in the Anon game, with tied W-W wagons on D1, how would you describe the threadflow then compared to now?

[OngBonga]

idk I can't really remember. Threadflow is a new concept that has only recently started to be talked about. I'm not sure if I give it any significance. There's any number of reasons why the thread might flow differently, many of them subjective at best.

[baudib]

I thought I really liked both of these wagons before and now I feel less confident.

It could be that one/both of Gabe/Keith have heroed D1 again. I can't say I agree with either of their wolves though.

in short, let's lynch JKDS

does JKDS go to ground this long as a villager?

[OngBonga]

Yeah JKDS can do this as villager or wolf. And the risk of lynching a special at deadline is maybe a bit too much for a JKDS to be viable. I'm happy with a wuf lynch because he's very likely to show up before deadline, and if he doesn't that's dodgier than JKDS not doing so.

mojo could be a wolf, that would explain why he didn't get hammered. It's daven I think isn't a wolf based on wagon dynamics. mojo reads villager but maybe that's a misread. Or maybe the wolves really are being complacent and I'm derp clearing daven based on them dithering.

Looks like mojo is our man. I'm not thrilled with it but it seems better than daven because I think the wolves are hoping daven gets it, hence no hammer.

[wufwugy]

Daven could claim seer and I'm calling him a fake

He could be first on the wagons of two lynched wolves and I'm calling him the third wolf

Why? Did you see his first 48 hours of play? There's no coming back from that.

[baudib]

Yeah. I still have Wuf in the "skeptical face" camp but I have to agree with him on Daven.

I'm really interested in hearing from the numerous people who have soft-pushed Daven without voting him, and particularly Gabe/Rong on why they think Daven defended himself well.

[OngBonga]

I just find wagon dynamics near deadline more compelling than the things people say. We all know villagers can do wolfy stuff. There's a very good reason why daven isn't a wolf. Mojo is still alive. Think about it.

[Keybored]

@keybored: There still plenty of time for a wagon to form on you if you refuse to answer. perhaps that would persuade you to answer the points i made.

Tomorrow, Keith. Nobody cares about our tiff right now.

FWIF, here's how my d2 is looking (barring any crazy kills dynamics): In pregame, you preannounced an MMM vote, then flipped wolf this game, then shat yourself when MMM wigged out early, thus started an easy wagon, and got your buds to join in on the free/easy lynch that couldn't possibly be backtracked. But MMM didn't roll over; in fact, he stood tall. Then I started a Daven wagon which got steam. Then I pointed out who I thought was a wolf sitting on MMM, and that you started it. Now both you and Rong are freaking out on me.

But nobody else is giving a shit about our battle right now and I recognized that.
So I try to avoid being a distraction and ask for a temp truce.
But you MOVE YOUR VOTE??
FFS
How's that not a distraction?
Show us you're working for the village.
"u out me, so i bold u" is not productive.
Put your vote in the game where it matters.

[wufwugy]

We have to lynch MMM. Always. We're kidding ourselves if we think he doesn't have cursed equity. A decent percentage of the time the cursed will act wacky and drop all those tells, and a decent percentage of the time he will post defenses exactly like MMM has. Frankly, if MMM was villager I would expect him to be more vociferous about how bad of reads and decisions we have on him

But there has been none of that. Maybe he isn't cursed, but he's playing fully in line with what cursed would do more than average.

Punching through a d2 Daven lynch is because he can say nothing that will change his first 48 hours. I find it fucking hilarious that Ong was all like "wow daven got wolf" then 24 hours later he's all "daven who?"

[wufwugy]

I just find wagon dynamics near deadline more compelling than the things people say. We all know villagers can do wolfy stuff. There's a very good reason why daven isn't a wolf. Mojo is still alive. Think about it.

The anon and ghost wolf games blasted a hole into this sort of reasoning. Sure, it's possible, but all sorts of unreasonable shit seems to happen in these games

[OngBonga]

I find it fucking hilarious that Ong was all like "wow daven got wolf" then 24 hours later he's all "daven who?"

I find it fucking hilarious that you're totally ignoring what I'm saying about the wagon dynamics and pointing towards his d1 comments like he fucking arrroood.

[wufwugy]

Obviously I don't mean we should literally slam through a daven lynch. I mean, I think we should, but I am not the only player. People need to do what they're gonna do, and I'm gonna be here saying people need to do what I want them to do

[OngBonga]

The anon and ghost wolf games blasted a hole into this sort of reasoning. Sure, it's possible, but all sorts of unreasonable shit seems to happen in these games

Well this might be a fair point, but when you talk about snapping off daven on d2 without even discussing it or the flips, then I find you very hard to take seriously.

[wufwugy]

I find it fucking hilarious that you're totally ignoring what I'm saying about the wagon dynamics and pointing towards his d1 comments like he fucking arrroood.

The first rule of wagon dynamics: don't talk about wagon dynamics until after they happened

[OngBonga]

The first rule of wagon dynamics: don't talk about wagon dynamics until after they happened

That rule worked for Fight Club, didn't it? And I've explained why I'm speculating about it now. Daven is a potnetial lynch today.

[wufwugy]

Frankly, the main reason I have for not wanting to lynch MMM or Daven is that I want to lynch MMM and Daven. You know, because I'm wuf and wuf is always wrong with this stuff

[wufwugy]

Looks like mojo is our man. I'm not thrilled with it but it seems better than daven because I think the wolves are hoping daven gets it, hence no hammer.

Let's imagine Baud's "for postgame" read is right: Gabe/JKDS/Daven

In that case, we should expect that Gabe and JKDS would know better than to be the deciders on the MMM lynch

TBH, the argument you're making is quite similar to ones I've done a lot in the past, but got burned hard on in the anon game

[MadMojoMonkey]

Wuf:

[wufwugy]

wuf is a wolf if mojo and daven are both villagers, that I'm 95% sure about.

If they're villagers I hope I'm the miller

Which means I'm probably the miller

[baudib]

I find myself disagreeing with a lot of what Ong is saying but I find him villagery.

I agree with a lot of what Wuf is saying but I think he's wolfy.

Game is hard.

Actually I'd be surprised if those of us here arguing near EOD weren't all villagers.

[wufwugy]

I have lost almost all my faith in wagon dynamics fwiw. Way too often I've seen wolves play straight up stupid

[MadMojoMonkey]

BID/JKDS/aubrey lurking through D1. To a lesser extent Keith, but he's in here now, tunneling on key.

Key making some ambitious speculation, and Keith picking up on it, is my read.
Which is not to judge the speculation for truthiness.

Key claiming tactics is odd.

I expect tactics from key, but I don't expect him to explain himself so simply.
I'm sure I've not seen authentic condescension out of keybored yet, but it's something this game can bring out of people.
(sorry guys, still bros?)

[MadMojoMonkey]

Actually I'd be surprised if those of us here arguing near EOD weren't all villagers.

I'm not too sure about gabe and rong.

Lurkers:
BID, aubrey, JKDS, monstr

[Hoopy]

1 hour to go bros.

[baudib]

It's actually kind of a relief to not have a crazy vote swing where 10 people switch off right before EOD.

[OngBonga]

jfc stfu wia

[baudib]

I wouldn't hate a CFD tbh.

I'm setting a trap for anyone who wants to come in and YOLO.

DUCY?

[Keith]

think back to last game guys , i nailed 3 wolves and was eaten night 1 and village went away from the three i targetted. Keybored was one of those three. I keep asking him to explain himself and he keeps refusing. If i die tonight you guys have got to keep pressing him to answer the points i've made . He's hoping i die , and the village then doesn't follow through .

[MadMojoMonkey]

Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

[Keybored]

Baud...since you're lurking at day's end and nuthin else is goin' on...why did you vary your voting this game by sticking with just one bold all day? You hit Daven 15mins into it and never moved. Are you no longer hunting with bolds?

[Luco]

I think ong is right, daven has been tied for a couple hours now - where's the panic?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Unfortunately the important people aren't online now to do a CFD, so it doesn't matter.

Currently Active Users
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Vote with me, ongbonga. You're my only hope.