Pineapple Strategy Thread

[OneByPhi]

I think your only real decision was on 11th. You had to decide whether to play the A to the top or mid. I think there's a good argument for both cases, but when everything in the middle is as live as can be, then I think that tips it to playing the A up top.

When you play the A up and the 3 to the mid, you have 8 live outs (three 3s, three 7s, two 8s) for the last draw. So, you not only are a significant favorite to make your hand on the last draw, the implied odds of your expectation in FL are giving you a huge overlay to make this play. Yes, you can safeguard your hand by not playing the A up on the thrid draw, but you are giving up 9 points for the AA on top and the bounty of FL when you are something like a 3:2 favorite to get there on the last draw. That's not the way to win at POFC.

[MadMojoMonkey]

When you play the A up and the 3 to the mid, you have 8 live outs (three 3s, three 7s, two 8s) for the last draw. So, you not only are a significant favorite to make your hand on the last draw [...]

Yes, you are right. My point is that it's quite common to have less than 8 outs. Notably when you can't afford to make trips in the mid, which is more common than not. With 6 outs, you have ~55% equity in catching at least 1 out on the final draw. If you have 5 outs, then your equity is ~47%

Now, it is a common misconception that equity is as important as EV... which is false. Equity is only the chance of something happening, but EV combines the chance of something happening with the value of that occurrence.

We can make a simple model for value by assuming that when an out is drawn, the value is 9 + 6 = 15. That assumes that when the draw comes in, Hero wins and sweeps. If we assume the value of missing the draw to be -6, then we have somewhere to start. Now, we're assuming that Villain does not foul, and that we will sweep if we win... so those are rather important assumptions, that don't apply to all cases.

We want to know the minimum equity we need to make a +EV play when we pair the A's on top.
Let this value be E. We want to solve for E.

E*(15) + (1 - E)*(-6) > 0
15E + 6E - 6 > 0
21E > 6
E > 6/21
E > ~29%

So, when protecting A's up top (value 9), Hero wants to have at least 29% equity, which translates to at least 3 outs. If Hero is protecting K's instead of A's (value 8), then 3 outs is too few; Hero would want at least 4 outs to make a +EV gamble.

Again, this assumes that Villain does not foul, so this is an approximation, since the actual value of Hero fouling is greater than -6. Also, this assumes that Hero will sweep when Hero does not foul, which is rather a big deal. There is a swing of 5 - 7 points in there, and it all depends on the actual board to determine whether a sweep is likely.