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 Originally Posted by Bacon_TT7
I would have set the hand very differently. I think a strong case could be made that Q /5 2 /7 7 might be the "best" play.
One basic idea is to get the FL card on top. That Q is a little nugget of gold on top, put it there. The idea behind Q /5 2 /7 7 is to make QQ or better on top, a small 2-pair in the mid, and at least 2-pair on the bottom. Since villain didn't show any of your outs, you'll pull your trip 7 on one of your draws about 40% of the time, so boats won't be rare.
Anyway, look at how the hand plays out down the other branch. After setting Q /5 2 /7 7 , the 1st draw is 8 3 2 , 2 to the mid to make a pair, 8 to the bottom, muck the 3 . The 2nd draw is 9 7 4 , 7 to the bottom to make trips, 9 to the mid to add outs to a 2-pair draw (note that you can now afford to make 9s-up in the mid because you have trips low.) 4 to the muck. 3rd draw is A 8 8 , alas, you can't use both 8s, so you play 8 to make your boat, put the A on top to add outs to your FL-pair draw, and muck the 8 . 4th draw is J 9 3 , and you play the 9 in the mid to make 2-pair but have to settle for AQJ on top. The final hand looks like this:
Bacon_TT7 (dealer)
     
         
         
Discard: 3 4 8 3
Against the hand you made, this hand wins 2-3 (losing the top to your deuces, winning the mid 9s-up to 8s-up, and winning the bottom with the boat) and nets 6 points in royalties for the boat, +7.
I'm not saying that this proves anything on the basis of one hand, but even though the FL draw never would have gotten there, this path had a much better chance to get there.
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