Operation Hot Stove

[abelardx]

... in which I commit to stoving a lot of hands and developing a good poker thought process based on ranges and reads. I'll also post thoughts about the videos I watch and in general document the poker learning process.

Feel free to comment about anything. I'm especially interested in people's opinions about typical ranges for different player types in various spots.

Bluffer Cat says: Stove it!

[abelardx]

So I started re-watching some old DC videos. Last week I watched Plus Evolution of a Poker Player by sthief09. It's really good and I recommend it to new players. It goes over the basic logic of playing a poker hand, and since poker is a complex game, it actually takes him eight hours.

Last night I started watching The Coaching Tree with BalugaWhale and TubaSteve. BalugaWhale is one of those awesome high stakes players who can go on and on about a hand talking about stuff I'd never even think of. Plus he likes to talk anyway which makes his videos very good.

Even though the games have changed a lot since these videos were made, even at the micros, where there are more 'tags' and more 3betting, more poker education in general, it's still poker and I think there's still a lot of value in these videos, esp when better players discuss how they adjust to different player types and when they describe their thought process postflop, where a lot of tags incl myself still suck and make basic mistakes.

In the 25nl vid I watched, Baluga made several good points:

1. The microstakes are all about value betting. If you think worse will call keep betting, even if you don't have tptk. He used the phrase 'bet til raised' several times.

2. He also talked about how you have to respect late street fish raises even min raises ie The Baluga Theorem and also how the unbluffable are often never bluffing either. So bluff catching goes down in value.

3. Another point was adjusting our 3bet and steal ranges for the player type we're up against. Against fish it's better to have high cards with showdown value in order to exploit the fish whose major mistake is calling too much.

4. And how when we're deep our hands need to have 'cooler value' like suited connectors or suited aces that can make big/nut hands.

5. That we want to play pots with fish esp in position. So we should be calling and/or isolating a little wider than we might open.

6. That cbetting at the micros really isn't bluffing. We're not folding better hands usually but we are getting opponents to 'fold their equity share' which is important too.

[abelardx]

Here's a hand from last night that illustrates point 1 where top pair even ok kicker is often better than a fish's all-in range:

$0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
Merge
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($4.38) 110bb
CO ($1.60) 40bb
BTN HERO ($14.92) 373bb
SB ($1.64) 41bb
BB ($4) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.10, 5 players) HERO is BTN
[CO posts $0.04]
UTG calls $0.04, CO checks, HERO raises to $0.22, 2 folds, UTG folds, CO calls $0.18

Main Pot : ($0.54)
CO: -$0.04 EV (32.60%)
HERO: +$0.14 EV (67.40%)

Flop: ($0.54, 2 players)
CO checks, HERO bets $0.27, CO goes all-in $1.38, HERO calls $1.11

Main Pot : ($3.30)
CO: -$0.69 EV (20.80%)
HERO: +$1.23 EV (79.20%)

Turn: ($3.30, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Main Pot : ($3.30)
CO: +$3.08 EV (93.20%)
HERO: +$0.22 EV (6.80%)

River: ($3.30, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Main Pot : ($3.30)
CO: +$3.30 EV (100.00%)
HERO: +$0.00 EV (0.00%)

Final Pot: $3.30
CO shows

HERO shows


CO wins $3.12 (net +$1.52)

HERO collects $0.00 (net -$1.60)
UTG lost $0.04

[Savy]

1) Worse calling isn't enough to justify value betting. Let's say we are dealt a hand and we have a round of betting then the person with the best hand wins. If we have AJ and we know villain calls with AK, AQ, AJ, AT clearly we aren't value betting.

2) This is true to an extent, but watch 8 things not to do Baluga Theorem episode.

3) Ye this seems fairly sound, but it's just being aware of what we can play profitably really.

4) I suppose this is more to do with our implied odds in a situation, deeper stacks better implied odds. We really need to be aware of villains post flop tendencies for this though because it makes a huge difference as to whether we can do stuff profitably or not.

5) Definitely. Be careful of people left to act though and be aware of your raising size whilst doing this.

6) This I disagree with. It depends on our range and how our opponent plays his range. Like too many people play fit/fold poker postflop but call with their draws far too much which is why it's really helpful to understand board textures and how it hits villains range. But a lot of the time we are cbet bluffing and if we aren't thinking of it as such we can get into trouble later on as we don't really understand the purpose of our hand.

[abelardx]

And here's a hand I'm posting to shame myself because I still haven't internalized the Baluga Theorem which is probably my biggest problem right now:

Villain is 37/6.

Merge
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($2.27) 57bb
UTG+1 ($8.80) 220bb
CO HERO ($4.59) 115bb
BTN ($4) 100bb
SB ($4.96) 124bb
BB ($5.29) 132bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 6 players) HERO is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.04, HERO raises to $0.18, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.14

Flop: ($0.42, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, HERO bets $0.21, UTG+1 calls $0.21

Turn: ($0.84, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, HERO bets $0.56, UTG+1 raises to $1.68, HERO calls $1.12

River: ($4.20, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.10, HERO goes all-in $2.52, UTG+1 calls $0.42

Final Pot: $9.24
HERO shows

UTG+1 shows


UTG+1 wins $8.73 (net +$4.14)

HERO collects $0.00 (net -$4.59)

[abelardx]

Thanks for the comments, Savvy.

[Savy]

Also why is hand 1 an example of TP being better than a fishes all in range and hand 2 is an example of baluga theorem?

You're missing out on loads of value by betting half pot when cbetting too. Go look up inelastic ranges and be aware that against villains who aren't that capable we can vary our bet sizes for exploitation.

[abelardx]

Also why is hand 1 an example of TP being better than a fishes all in range and hand 2 is an example of baluga theorem?

You're missing out on loads of value by betting half pot when cbetting too. Go look up inelastic ranges and be aware that against villains who aren't that capable we can vary our bet sizes for exploitation.

In hand 1 i did have top pair but not tptk. When villain jams over the cbet with worse I think that's an example of point 1. As for the cbet I bet small because I knew I'd go all the way and his stack was so small, I could start small and still get his stack.

Same reasoning for the cbet size in hand 2. I was kind of thinking of griffey's suggestion of small flop bet, medium turn bet, and river shove. Maybe that's only for 3bet pots tho.

Hand 2 is an example of Baluga's Theorem because I got raised on the turn and my overpair was crushed. Isn't that Baluga's Theorem, one pair no good when raised on the turn?

[abelardx]

Oh I see. Hand 1 is defo not an example of 'bet til raised' but it is an example of how fish will often go all the way with less than tptk. That's what I meant anyway.

[abelardx]

OK this is operation hot stove so let's fire up the stove and do hand 1.

Villain posted preflop so their range is any two.

What are the pot odds?

0.54 + 0.27 + 1.38 / 1.11 = 2.19 / 1.11 = 1.98, basically 2:1. So we need roughly 33%.

Possible ranges for shorty flop shove:

1. any pair or 8 outs or better

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2d5hKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 74.04% 72.75% 1.29% { KcTs }
MP3 25.96% 24.67% 1.29% { 22+, AKs, A5s, A2s, K2s+, Q5s, Q2s, J5s, J2s, T5s, T2s, 95s, 92s, 85s, 82s, 75s, 72s, 65s, 62s, 52s, 42s+, 32s, AKo, A4o, A2o, K2o+, Q4o, Q2o, J4o, J2o, T4o, T2o, 94o, 92o, 84o, 82o, 74o, 72o, 64o, 62o, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

We are crushing.

2. top pair, pocket pair above 2nd pair, 8 outs, or better

This is actually what I believe villain's range is here for these shorty flop shoves.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2d5hKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.42% 55.10% 3.33% { KcTs }
MP3 41.58% 38.25% 3.33% { 55+, 22, AKs, K2s+, 52s, 43s, AKo, K2o+, 52o, 43o }

Still ahead and far ahead of the equity needed to call. So a profitable situation.

[abelardx]

On to hand 2. Villain here is pretty interesting. I've easily played over a thousand hands with him. For all his fishy preflop behavior I think he's not too bad postflop and he is breakeven over his last 40k hands which I think is pretty good for someone playing that way. I told him in chat about FTR. Hopefully he shows up.

In any case, I must have been sleeping this hand because I know villain is a limp/folder. So when he limp/calls I'd weight his range more towards actually decent hands. Like aces, broadway and pairs, possibly suited connectors.

I didn't check his popup stats at the time of the hand but since I have them we'll use them.

His fold to cbet is 49. So on the flop I'd give him a decently wide range. I'm sure KK are crushing there.

His turn c/r stat is 12 which is 4 of 33 opportunities. I'm not sure if that's a lot. But I do not see this guy as bluffy at all. At the time I optimistically thought he might have AJ, but let's give him a range and see.

When he c'r's the turn, I think his range is tpgk or better. Given that he l/c'd, I don't think he has a straight. And I don't think he raises a fd. So I would give him:

possibly 76s, AJ, maybe KJ, QQ+, and sets

Meh, we're flipping against this range:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 4dJs7c6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.83% 51.72% 1.11% { KdKh }
MP3 47.17% 46.06% 1.11% { JJ+, 77-66, 44, AJs, KJs, 76s, AJo, KJo }

Take out KJ and we're on the ugly side of flipping:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 4dJs7c6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.27% 44.99% 1.28% { KdKh }
MP3 53.73% 52.45% 1.28% { JJ+, 77-66, 44, AJs, 76s, AJo }

If he only ever raises the turn with a big hand or overpairs, and never top pair even, which is quite possible, then we're crushed:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 4dJs7c6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.44% 25.59% 1.85% { KdKh }
MP3 72.56% 70.71% 1.85% { JJ+, 77-66, 44, 76s }

So folding here would have been the better part of valor.

[abelardx]

Initial progress report and grapho numero uno:



I'm pretty sure I'm positive judging by balances. I had to reinstall stuff about a week ago so this is not all my hands.

Small brag: Two nights ago I won the FTR Bovada tournament. lol I ran hotter than the sun. I got AA like three times and even won KK > AA rivering the set. My apologies to whoever that was.

Some people, well really only one, seemed annoyed that I was continually stealing the blinds after I got to be big stack and I just want to say: that is standard MTT play. And if you're not doing that, you should be.

In any case I won like $100. Sweet! So now I'm rolled for 10nl on Bovada. Also I took my money off Black Chip, and when it gets here, I'm going to put it on Carbon, which I think has better software and more games. I just like Carbon better anyway. So after that happens I should be playing 10nl on Carbon too, which will be nice.

Here's my current bankroll strategy:

I need 30 buy-ins to play 5nl, and for each limit after that, the requirement goes up by 10 buy-ins. So I need 40 buy-ins to play 10nl, 50 to play 25nl, all the way up to 100 buy-ins for 5/10, and 100 buy-ins for each limit after that.

The move-down rule is that I move down after losing 10 buy-ins below the required amount at the current stakes.

So if I was playing 5nl and got down to $100 I'd have to go to 2nl. If I'm playing 10nl and get down to $300 then I have to drop down to 5nl. Like that.

I have no idea how responsible this brm strategy is or how it relates to Kelly criterion or anything else. Probably it's very conservative, which suits me fine. In any case I'm never worried about dropping a few buy-ins at the current stakes which is important for tilt control and playing your best etc.

[daven]

saw the thread title and immediately guessed it was a stoner thread
nsfw? perhaps
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spots_%28cannabis%29
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DagF3ujJG-g

[daven]

You're missing out on loads of value by betting half pot when cbetting too. Go look up inelastic ranges and be aware that against villains who aren't that capable we can vary our bet sizes for exploitation.

^ listen to this advice

[abelardx]

saw the thread title and immediately guessed it was a stoner thread
nsfw? perhaps
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spots_%28cannabis%29
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DagF3ujJG-g

Hmmm, I was not aware of the cannabis connection. I just liked the picture. I'm not such a big fan of being stoned like when I was younger. As you get older, time gets shorter and more precious, and spending time intoxicated is not so attractive. Interesting tho. New to me.

[abelardx]

Now I'm not so sure about watching videos. Trying to adjust like BalugaWhale had me playing like a total idiot. Maybe that's the 'conscious incompetence' phase.

[abelardx]

Here's the hand I posted in BC about calling with the multi-draw. This is an interesting spot that doesn't come up very often. I think the correct play is very much villain dependent.

Here the villain is a spazzy fish and my read is that the flop shove is a weak made hand, likely one pair, and I could easily have 15 outs, in which case I'm happy to call since I'm the favorite.

If it was a tag I'd expect to see either a strong made hand, at least two pair+ charging the fd and capturing the redraw equity, or a big draw capturing its equity against a made hand. In either of those cases, calling here would be kinda tragic.

As it turns out, I did call and villain did have the hand I suspected, where I had 15 clean outs and they had no real redraw. Even though I lost, I'm quite satisfied because I got it in deep as a 60/40 favorite which is of course a very good thing.

$0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
Merge
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (BTN) ($14.10) 353bb
SB ($1.77) 44bb
BB ($6.64) 166bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 3 players) Hero is BTN
Hero raises to $0.14, SB folds, BB raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.10

Main Pot : ($0.50)
BB: +$0.06 EV (59.60%)
Hero: -$0.04 EV (40.40%)

Flop: ($0.50, 2 players)
BB goes all-in $6.40, Hero calls $6.40

Main Pot : ($13.30)
BB: -$1.00 EV (40.60%)
Hero: +$1.50 EV (59.40%)

Turn: ($13.30, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Main Pot : ($13.30)
BB: +$8.17 EV (61.40%)
Hero: +$5.13 EV (38.60%)

River: ($13.30, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Main Pot : ($13.30)
BB: +$13.30 EV (100.00%)
Hero: +$0.00 EV (0.00%)

Final Pot: $13.30
BB shows

Hero shows


BB wins $12.57 (net +$5.93)

Hero collects $0.00 (net -$6.64)

--------------------------

My flop equity vs any pair or better:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9s8s2s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.47% 50.38% 0.09% { QdJs }
MP3 49.53% 49.44% 0.09% { 22+, A9s-A8s, A2s, K9s-K8s, K2s, Q9s-Q8s, Q2s, J9s-J8s, J2s, T8s+, T2s, 98s, 32s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o }

I took out some of the trashier hands to compensate for the min 3bet. I'm a little surprised to see that this is a true flip. With no significant dead money, calling is very meh.

--------------------------

My flop equity vs exactly one pair hands better than second pair:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9s8s2s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.58% 48.48% 0.10% { QdJs }
MP3 51.42% 51.32% 0.10% { TT+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s-93s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }

Here we're actually a very slight dog because we lose many of our overcard outs. And since this is what I think villain's range really is here, the call is bad, even though I was lucky to get it in good this time.

--------------------------

My flop equity vs two pair or better:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9s8s2s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 39.80% 39.80% 0.00% { QdJs }
MP3 60.20% 60.20% 0.00% { 99-88, 22, 98s, 92s, 82s }

Now we're on the wrong side of the 60/40 but this is very few combos. Calling against this range would be terribad.

--------------------------

My flop equity vs a better big draw:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9s8s2s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 23.94% 23.94% 0.00% { QdJs }
MP3 76.06% 76.06% 0.00% { AsKc }

Losing all the flush outs just kills us. Calling here would be tragic.

--------------------------

So why do the fish do this kind of thing? I call it 'fear of postflop'. They know they have a decent hand and they don't want to go through the stress of playing postflop. The board is scary. So they don't mind a fold. And they don't want to call with the worst of it on later streets and look foolish. So they remove all further decisions by shoving.

--------------------------

Question: Does a fish ever do this kind of thing with a draw, even a really nice draw like AKs on a two tone flop? Or would they just call with the draw? I think a lot of them call down and don't shove their draws, or even bet them strongly, ever.

--------------------------

Issue #2:

What's up with the min 3bet with K9s?

That will be the subject of another post, namely, how the fish are reacting to preflop raises and the increasingly common isolation raise, even at the nanos.

Short answer:
1. l/c'ing a tighter range
2. stop and go's, ie min 3bet and pot the flop esp if oop
3. min raising
other ways

[abelardx]

Playing on Bovada is totally different than playing on Carbon or Black Chip, even at 5nl. On Bovada if you iso-raise and cbet constantly you'll just get owned by the half stacks who simply are not folding on the flop. You could double barrel but that's kinda iffy. The thing to do of course is be patient, cbet a little less, and make a hand, because they will call down with second pair or less even which is pretty hilarious. Of course it's still good to raise them with the dominating hands because playing bigger pots as the favorite is very +ev. On Carbon and Black Chip where there are a lot of video-watching 2p2-visiting regs who despise calling, you can play a lot wilder, 3bet light, and other fun stuff.

[griffey24]

You really can't call that QxJs.

The ONLY hand I can think of that might play like this that we're doing well against is JT (either JxTs or JT no spades). Given the size of his bet relative to the pot you need like 48% which by your ranges is clear we just never have.

[abelardx]

You really can't call that QxJs.

The ONLY hand I can think of that might play like this that we're doing well against is JT (either JxTs or JT no spades). Given the size of his bet relative to the pot you need like 48% which by your ranges is clear we just never have.

Yeh that was a big mistake. I can't count on the flush outs or the overcard outs which makes calling really bad.

[MadMojoMonkey]

On Bovada if you iso-raise and cbet constantly you'll just get owned by the half stacks who simply are not folding on the flop.

I agree with this. You'll put yourself in a place where you have ridic odds and simply can't fold too often OTT against the short stackers. The bright side is that you can own them with aggressive 3-bets PRE, and play basically fit-or-fold OTF vs. them. You'll frequently get a free turn card and sometimes a free showdown.

Against the 100bb stacks, though... you have a lot more fold equity OTF, so you can C-bet them more. Just be prepared to b/f a wide range against them, because they like to 'trap' you by either c/r or calling down with monsters. So if you're relentlessly C-betting the deep stacks, you have to acknowledge that their range OTT can be fairly nutted, even when they c/c OTF. Proceed with caution on later streets.

[abelardx]

Thanks for the advice MMM. You play 25nl, right? At 5nl on Bovada it's almost like a play money game. Not exactly but so much so that being aggro preflop is not a good idea ime anyway, esp on Saturday and Sunday.

In any case I had a crazy day today. First off I played this guy heads up who ran awesome. He just continuously showed down better hands. I really couldn't believe it. So that was -3 buy-ins. Then I started playing ring games and without realizing it was kinda tilted and was really aggro preflop and just got owned by the stations. So that was another -7 buy-ins for a total of -10 buy-ins.

That really sucked. So I walked around my house for a bit going wtf? wtf? omg. But then I cleaned the house, which always makes me feel better and took a shower. And I still wanted to play. So this time I played completely cards-face-up ABC poker. Never tried to steal it. Just went pot pot pot, well really more like 2/3 pot, bet til raised lines with tpgk or better. And got back 6 buy-ins! lol

So even though I'm down 4 buy-ins today I feel really good because I came back quite a bit. But more importantly I was playing like an idiot, alongwith some runbad really, took a break, and made some correct adjustments. So that's good.

I wish I had the hands but it was Bovada, and it takes a day or two to get the hands from them. There were some interesting ones.

One hand I shoved trips on the river vs an utg opener who I figured for an overpair. He flips over 37o for a turned straight. lol

I think I'm starting to get a handle on ABC poker vs anti-reg poker. Usually I play on Carbon where ABC is not as good. People play back a lot more and don't call down. But it's nice to feel like I have two gears anyway.

[abelardx]

How to Read Hands by Ed Miller

I want to start working through this book. Obv hand reading is a big deal.

3 player types:

1. the nit

• afraid of getting stacked
• often weaktight
• calls carry a lot of information

2. the fish

• uneducated about poker
• loose and passive
• want to see a showdown

3. the reg

• reasonably solid
• understand outs
• positionally aware
• may have major leaks tho

The 3 principles of hand reading:

1. people do what they do for a reason

• often based on emotion like the fear of losing or the thrill of gambling

2. most players do not bluff with the correct frequency

• most players do not bluff enough
• a few bluff way too much

3. information from big bets and calls is more reliable

• an important corollary of principle 2

Exercise #1:

In the following hand write out the hand ranges for the big blind:

A reg live player limps. Three players limp behind. The SB calls, and the BB checks. Six players to the flop.

Flop: Qd Td 9s

SB checks. BB bets pot. The reg calls. Everyone else folds.

Turn: 2c

BB checks. Reg checks it back.

River: 8c

BB checks. Reg bets pot.

The BB's probable range:

After cards are dealt: [xx] any two

After checking preflop multi-way: [all but JJ+, AJ+, KQ] a capped range

When leading out for pot multi-way on a Qd Td 9s flop:

Either semi-bluffing with a draw or protecting a made hand from a draw. I don't think he has a weak made hand because he can't reasonably expect to fold everyone with a single bet on this flop. IOW I expect him to c/f any hand less than top pair with no draw, assuming BB is reg-ish.

So BB could have:

• the nuts KJ (16 combos)
• the second nuts J8 (16 combos)
• middle or bottom set TT, 99 (12 combos)
• two pair QT, Q9, T9 (27 combos total)
• top pair QJ, Q8 - Q2 (8 * 12 = 96 combos)
• nut gutters: K8 - k2 (7 * 16 = 112 combos), 7 of these are also fd's
• nut open enders: J7 - J2 (6 * 16 = 96 combos), 6 of these are also fd's
• dummy gutters: 87 - 82 (6 * 16 = 96 combos), 6 of these are also fd's
• dummy open enders: 87 (16 combos), 1 of these is also a fd
• nut flush draws: A8 - A2, all dd (7 combos)
• non-nut flush draws not already counted among the straight draws: 98 - 92, 87 - 82, 76 - 72, 65 - 62, 54 -52, 43 - 42, 32, all dd (28 combos)

Total combos otf: 522 or a whopping 39% of all possible starting hands

When checking a 2c turn oop hu:

We can discount made hands here since BB is no longer protecting against draws. This leaves BB with all his draws. From above that is 355 combos.

When checking an 8c river oop hu:

BB did not bet for value so the 8 probably did not help him. So his final range is all draws without a J, which is 112 + 96 + 16 + 7 + 28 = 259 combos ie all but the 96 open enders.

The main point I'm getting from this exercise is that wet middle/high card flops hit a tremendous number of starting hands.

[MadMojoMonkey]

In any case I had a crazy day today. First off I played this guy heads up who ran awesome. He just continuously showed down better hands. I really couldn't believe it. So that was -3 buy-ins. Then I started playing ring games and without realizing it was kinda tilted and was really aggro preflop and just got owned by the stations. So that was another -7 buy-ins for a total of -10 buy-ins.

Losing 10 BI in one sitting is pretty extreme, and bound to tilt just about anyone. I'd recommend setting a stop-loss value at about 1/2 of that (or a bit less, depending on your own tilt-limit.)

If you've dropped 5 BI, then something's going wrong. Maybe you're card dead. Maybe it's just variance catching up with you that Villain's keep having the top of their range. Or maybe it's cause your head's in the wrong place, or your environment is distracting.

Whatever. At some point, it's time to take a break and really figure out what's up. It could be as short a break as you like, but I find a step back is hugely beneficial to my game.

Your 'untilt' routine sounds excellent to me.

[Carroters]

It's also good to learn your own tilt triggers and manifestations so you can recognise and quit a session when you're tilted beyond recovery. The Mental Game of Poker is pretty good for helping you recognise these. I just quit a session tonight because I was playing retarded. Sometime your head is just in the wrong zone and identifying that and taking a break is huge for your win rate.

[abelardx]

Thanks guys. I'm going to check out the Jared Tendler book. My problem is more mindlessness than real anger or anything like that.

edit: The funny thing is I only needed one more buy-in to move up to 10 nl. So of course that's when I fall off the cliff.

[abelardx]

How To Read Hands by Ed Miller

Exercise #2:

Suppose our reg opener's range after the turn in the hand from ex1 is:

[88, A9s, KTs-K9s, QJs-JTs, 98s-87s, J9s-86s, T7s, Ad8d-Ad2d, Kd8d, 7d6d-5d4d, 7d5d-5d3d, A9o, KQo, KTo-K9o, QJo-JTo].

The board on the river is Qd Td 9s 2c 8c.

Determine the different strength hands the reg could have, how many hand combos make up each type of hand, and the percentage of the time he has that hand when he gets to the river.

First let's count the number of hand combos in his range on the river:

• 88 -> 3 combos
• A9s -> 3 combos (As9s is not possible)
• KTs-K9s -> 3+3 = 6 combos (KdTd and Ks9s are not possible)
• QJs-JTs -> 3+3 = 6 combos (QdJd and JdTd are not possible)
• 98s-87s -> 2+3 = 5 combos (9s8s, 9c8c, and 8c7c are not possible)
• J9s-86s -> 3+2+3+3 = 11 combos (Js9s, Td8d, Tc8c, 9s7s, and 8c6c are not possible)
• T7s -> 3 combos (Td7d is not possible)
• Ad8d-Ad2d -> 8-2+1 = 7 combos
• Kd8d -> 1 combo
• 7d6d-5d4d -> 7-5+1 = 3 combos
• 7d5d-5d3d -> 7-5+1 = 3 combos
• A9o -> 4*3 = 12 combos (9s not available)
• KQo -> 4*3 = 12 combos (Qd not available)
• KTo-K9o -> 4*3 + 4*3 = 24 combos (Td not available)
• QJo-JTo -> 3*4 + 4*3 = 24 combos (Qd and Td not available)

This is 123 hand combos or 123/1326 = 9% of all starting hands.

What are the different hand strengths possible on this board Qd Td 9s 2c 8c?

Board is not paired => quads, full houses, and one-card trips are not possible.
No 3-flush on board => straight flushes and flushes are not possible.
3-straights on board => straights are possible.

So the possible hand strengths are:

straights:

• KJ makes a K-high straight
• Jx not JK makes a Q-high straight
• 76 makes a T-high straight

sets:

• QQ, TT, 99, 22, 88

two-pairs:

• QT, Q9, Q8, Q2, T9, T8, T2, 82

overpairs:

• AA, KK

top pairs:

• Qx not QQ, QT, Q9, Q8, or Q2

worse than top pair hands:

• everything else

Board: Qd Td 9s 2c 8c

Total number of combos in player's range and percentage of range:

straights:

• KJ, 0 combos
• Jx no KJ, 33 combos, 27%
• 76, 1 combo, 1%

sets:

• QQ, 0 combos
• TT, 0 combos
• 99, 0 combos
• 22, 0 combos
• 88, 3 combos, 2%

two-pairs:

• QT, 0 combos
• Q9, 0 combos
• Q8, 0 combos
• Q2, 0 combos
• T9, 0 combos
• T8, 0 combos
• T2, 0 combos
• 82, 0 combos

overpairs:

• AA, 0 combos
• KK, 0 combos

top pairs:

• Qx not QQ, QJ, QT, Q9, Q8, or Q2, 0 combos

less than top pair:

• everything else, 86 combos, 70%

So if you were in the BB with top pair or second pair good kicker, this would be a good spot to bluff catch.

[abelardx]

Arrrgh! Just got disconnected after 3betting with KK.

[abelardx]

Just watched a BalugaWhale Ghost video from DC. He's awesome. It was just what I needed to hear. His '3 principles for beating lower stakes':

1. value bet a lot
2. don't bluff
3. don't pay off

He also talked about how at higher stakes against good players who know what you're doing and know how to adjust, these 3 principles become a lot more fluid as you constantly adjust and re-adjust.

He then talked about a cycle of tightness/looseness people go through as they move up. When you're new to a limit and presumably against better players, you need to tighten up so your card advantage compensates for your decreased skill advantage. But once you get better you can go back to playing somewhat looser which will be more profitable for people who have a skill advantage on their competition.

BW's a pretty smart guy. I like his simple logic-based approach to the game.

[abelardx]

random kvetching removed

[abelardx]

How to Read Hands by Ed Miller

Exercise #3:

Write out hand ranges for your own preflop play, for opening, flatting, 3betting, and following limpers.

Opening ranges:

• utg 22, AJo, KQo, A9s, KTs, QTS, JTs, T9s 13%
• hijack 22, ATo, KJo, QJo, A5s, KTs, QTs, 98s 17%
• cutoff 22, A9o, KTo, QTo, JTo, A2s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, 54s 24%
• button 22, A2o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, A2s, K2s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 64s, 54s 44%

Flatting depends on position of opener, player type, and relative position, but always at least calling with suited broadway and pairs, and often suited connectors and suited aces against tight ranges.

3betting:

• QQ+ and AK from anywhere
• a polarized range from the blinds against a weak range, usually sc's or Axs
• a more linear range otb esp against people who call oop too much

Facing a 3bet oop:

Unless villain is obv out of line,

• flatting JJ - QQ, AK
• 4betting KK+
• folding everything else

Facing a 3bet ip from a light 3bettor:

• suited broadway always
• sometimes suited aces
• sometimes floating

Following limpers:

There is a lot of limping at 5 nl on Bovada and often isolating does not isolate anybody because everybody still calls.

limp following limpers:

• suited connectors
• weak suited aces
• if everyone limps, possibly connectors and suited face cards

raise following limpers:

• my entire opening range otb when I'm guaranteed position
• o/w tp type hands like broadway and A9o+

I feel like these ranges are pretty standard but I'm not really sure.

[abelardx]

I'm gonna go have tacos and relax for a bit.

[abelardx]

I've decided I'm not going to follow poker "orthodoxy" any more. Instead I'm going to observe as hard as I can to see what people are doing and think of logical ways to adjust. Period.

Two examples:

1. Iso-raising: Iso-raising is predicated on the idea that rec players limp/call pre a lot and check/fold otf a lot. But if they're not behaving that way any more then isoraising light is just stupid.

IME at Bovada 5 nl 'the fish' are limp/calling pre and either check/calling most flops or min-raising the cbet. They now know that the cbet is fos a lot of the time.

2. Jamming the nuts on the river: People used to snap call this with hands as weak as top pair. No one calls this any more. Every one knows it's the nuts and even 'the fish', I might start calling them recreational players instead, are folding some pretty strong hands. For the same reason, and kinda the same thing, if you cover some one and put them all in on the river, they are now folding most of the time.

So how do we adjust?

1. Fish l/c pre and c/c otf with a wide range. How to exploit?

Well first stop raising light and c-betting marginal flops. C-bet less and 2barrel more. Iso decent hands not crap.

Another thing, and this is the truly heretical part, is to just limp behind more. Really this is the situation where we are drawing vs people who will let us draw cheap and still pay us off when we hit but aren't folding weak made hands to cbets. Ergo take the cheap draw and outplay them postflop with superior value betting.

2. The thing to do here is to a) not put them all in and b) not shove. I've found that you can overbet the river up to about 75-80% of villain's stack and still get called by top pair. But shoving just doesn't get paid off.

So that's what I'm going to do. Observe more. Think more.

lol I feel like the guy in the commercial who says: "I'm not going to be who people expect me to be anymore." As if any one cares. But this is for myself. We'll see how it goes.

No more 'rules' like you can't bluff or you can't call here. Just observe, think, have a reason for what you do, and make the best decision you possibly can every time. Simple.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Another thing, and this is the truly heretical part, is to just limp behind more. Really this is the situation where we are drawing vs people who will let us draw cheap and still pay us off when we hit but aren't folding weak made hands to cbets. Ergo take the cheap draw and outplay them postflop with superior value betting.

I don't agree with this. If you're gaining value post flop, and they're not folding PRE, then you should be raising PRE, to increase your post-flop value. If they're not folding, and you're IP, and outplaying them, charge them for it. Adjust your ranges, adjust your sizing, but don't tone down the aggression. Be patient for the right spots, and crush those spots.

I beat 5NL and 10NL on Bovada without ever limping except the occasional complete the SB when BB was not a raiser, and the odds were 9:1 with connector's... That's just printing money if you consider anything less than a straight as a 'trouble spot'. Sure, I c/f a ton in those cases, but when I flopped a straight, there's always someone who caught a big enough piece to allow me to c/r for a nice profit.


Seriously, you can almost mindlessly b/f those stakes and make an occasional Hero station when they're repping a very thin range. I did this for a while and took notes about my tough folds... Checked the HH's a day later and my accuracy rate was like 95%+. When I had to fold a big hand, it was almost always the right fold. My point is that they play so bad that those tough lay downs are basically easy lay downs, due to the raging imbalance in their raising range.

[abelardx]

I don't agree with this. If you're gaining value post flop, and they're not folding PRE, then you should be raising PRE, to increase your post-flop value. If they're not folding, and you're IP, and outplaying them, charge them for it. Adjust your ranges, adjust your sizing, but don't tone down the aggression. Be patient for the right spots, and crush those spots.

I beat 5NL and 10NL on Bovada without ever limping except the occasional complete the SB when BB was not a raiser, and the odds were 9:1 with connector's... That's just printing money if you consider anything less than a straight as a 'trouble spot'. Sure, I c/f a ton in those cases, but when I flopped a straight, there's always someone who caught a big enough piece to allow me to c/r for a nice profit.


Seriously, you can almost mindlessly b/f those stakes and make an occasional Hero station when they're repping a very thin range. I did this for a while and took notes about my tough folds... Checked the HH's a day later and my accuracy rate was like 95%+. When I had to fold a big hand, it was almost always the right fold. My point is that they play so bad that those tough lay downs are basically easy lay downs, due to the raging imbalance in their raising range.

I agree that limping behind when you're guaranteed position is bad, and I don't do that on the button.

But otherwise, say you're in the CO and there's two limpers in front of you. You have some longshot starting hand (basically anything but an offsuit big/little). You can 1) fold pre and stay out of trouble which is reasonable.

2) You could limp behind knowing that it's highly likely that the button and blinds limp behind also, giving you great implied odds, where, if you do make a hand, you can beat them postflop by a) getting more value for your made hands and b) not paying off when you're beat, skills they're not as good at.

Or 3) you can raise the limpers preflop, with your K9 or 75s, and have everybody flat behind you. Now you're playing a big pot with a weak hand against players impervious to the one-street bluff. This isn't such a great spot because we will often miss and our advantage lies in playing our made hands better not bluffing.

I'm not so sure. The initiative is awesome at a site like Carbon with more 'regs' where far fewer hands get to showdown and most players do not want to continue with weak made hands oop.

I totally agree that we should always be raising the tpgk type starting hands like broadway from anywhere, and often 3betting them, because we're so far ahead of their range when we hit with good implied odds.

But with the weaker hands. Of the three choices, folding, raising, or seeing a flop cheap, you don't think seeing a flop cheap makes the most sense here?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I totally agree that we should always be raising the tpgk type starting hands like broadway from anywhere, and often 3betting them, because we're so far ahead of their range when we hit with good implied odds.

I didn't say that, and I don't think it. Well, you play 6-max, and I play FR, so there could be good reasons that my opening ranges are a bit tighter.

I don't necessarily play all suited broadways from MP (KTs,QTs,JTs are fold-able from HJ), and don't play all off-suit broadways until the CO.

I certainly don't think it's +EV to be 3-betting all double broadway hands.

But with the weaker hands. Of the three choices, folding, raising, or seeing a flop cheap, you don't think seeing a flop cheap makes the most sense here?

No. Fold or raise. Adjust your range to the point where you're ahead of Villain's calling range and never bluff/squeeze/etc. PRE.

The last time I played a limping range was on the nano-stakes play money tables on PS years ago, where you literally had 0% FE from any player PRE. But they're the bottom of the fish barrel for level -1 thinking. I can't imagine that you're playing with a table full of people who don't even understand pre-flop ranges.

Well, if you ARE, then limp away, since the hands you fold and don't limp will basically put you leaps and bounds ahead of them in equity. Couple this with your superior post-flop skills and you'll be moving up in stakes in no time.

However, the limping thing is eventually going to kill your winrate... so even if you can get away with it as +EV now, don't expect to be able to as you move up.

[abelardx]

So far I'm really liking the permission-to-limp strategy. I'm seeing a lot of flops multi-way for one blind with longshot starting hands and it looks very +ev. I'm still raising all my good hands. In fact I've made my preflop raises a little bigger. Of course this strategy is very situation specific. It really fits Bovada but it would suck on Carbon at 5nl/4nl.

So far today, stacked twice, flush over flush and flush into full house, but still up a little. I actually like playing on Bovada now. This seems to fit the situation.

[abelardx]

I'm going to start playing like Carroters, putting people on ranges, respecting raises, and stuff like that. Just rein in my inner aggtard. I believe I can do this and get the blue line and red line heading north, at least on Bovada micro which is frankly really soft. That would be awesome. Now, when I say 'put people on ranges', I mean only approximately because there's no way I could accurately do all that stuff in my head. But I do think I've done enough hand calcs to quickly think something like 'mostly top pairs, some pocket pairs and fd's, rarely the big hands like set etc', do a quick equity approximation, factor in player type, and go from there. This should be a much more profitable thought process than my usual 'Can you call this, mf'er?'

About MMM's ideas on limping behind. I agree with that a lot. He said adjust your raising range so you're ahead of the fish's calling range and play a raised pot ip etc. Good stuff. And I totally agree, but I do think in these games there are some profitable opportunities to limp behind. For example, if I can, and you easily can, get to see a flop for one blind multi-way with a cooler hand like 65o, and you know you're not overplaying a stinky one pair, then it would be silly to pass up on that bargain. IMO. This is something I would never do on Carbon because you almost never see a limped pot make it to the flop. But on Bovada it is routine. Basically these are extremely cheap chances to cooler someone and that is a good thing.

Raising and taking the initiative is always better when you have a hand that is ahead of villain's flatting range like KT, but when villains aren't limp/calling and check/folding as much, then taking the initiative with a hand like 65o is bad, and limping behind has way more value than folding, if you play it right, which is not hard, basically: draw cheap when allowed to, don't bluff, fold easily, and stack off with two pair or better.

[abelardx]

Miller Hand Reading Exercise No. 4

You're playing in a 9-handed $1-$2 live game. Two players fold, and then a regular open-limps. A fish limps behind him, and then another regular limps. You raise to $15 on the button with AcQc. A nit calls in the small blind. The first regular folds, the fish calls, and the second regular calls.

Write out possible hand ranges for each of your four opponents: Reg1 (open-limp/fold), Fish (limp/call), Reg2 (limp/call), Nit (cold-call). Remember that Reg1 folded, so don't include any hands in his range that he would have called a raise with.

Which of these players is most likely to hold a pocket pair? Who is most likely to hold an ace with a weaker kicker than yours?

Live reg open-limping range: [AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-54s, QTs-75s, Q9s-96s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-98o, QTo], 466 combos or 35%

Live reg flatting range: [AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-54s, QTs-75s, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo, QJo-JTo], 306 combos or 23%

Live reg limp/folding range = open-limping range - flatting range: [Q9s-96s, A8o-A2o, KTo-K9o, T9o-98o, QTo], 160 combos or 12%

Nit flatting range: [AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo-AQo], 134 combos or 10%

Fish limping range: atc

Fish limp/calling range: suited cards, any face card, any pair, any connector, any gapper, 81%

Percentage of starting hands with an ace:

• # starting hands with an ace = 12*16 (Ax) + 6 (AA) = 198 combos
• reg open/limp = 198/466 = 42%
• reg flat = (198 - 7*12 (no A8o-A2o))/306 = 114/306 = 37%
• reg limp/fold = 84 (A8o-A2o) / 160 = 53%
• nit flat = 6 (AA) + 4*4 (AKs-ATs) + 2*12 (AKo-AQo) / 134 = 46/134 = 34%
• fish limp/call = 198/1074 = 18%

Percentage of starting hands that have a pocket pair:

• # pocket pair starting hands = 13*6 = 78 combos
• reg open/limp = 78/466 = 17%
• reg flat = 78/306 = 25%
• reg limp/fold = 0%
• nit flat = 78/134 = 58%
• fish limp/call = 78/1074 = 7%

So for these live ranges and this preflop action, the reg is the most likely to have an ace, and the nit is by far the most likely to have a pocket pair.

Later, redo this exercise with hands from my games using what I think microstakes preflop ranges are.

[abelardx]

Miller Hand Reading Exercise No. 5

You have JJ and a regular reraises. His 3bet range is QQ+ and AK.

a) What is the percentage chance your opponent has each of the following hands: AA, KK, QQ, and AK?

There are:

• 6 combos of AA
• 6 combos of KK
• 6 combos of QQ
• 16 combos of AK

So for that range:

• AA = 6/34 = 18%
• KK = 6/34 = 18%
• QQ = 6/34 = 18%
• AK = 16/34 = 47%

b) Same question but now you have AK. How do the percentages change?

Now there are:

• 3 combos of AA
• 3 combos of KK
• 6 combos of QQ
• 9 combos of AK

So for that range:

• AA = 3/21 = 14%
• KK = 3/21 = 14%
• QQ = 6/21 = 29%
• AK = 9/21 = 43%

So in both these scenarios the number of big pairs is roughly the same as the number of AK's, but when you hold the blockers QQ are twice as likely as either KK or AA.

[abelardx]

After getting to $395 and then dropping back to ~$350 I now have the bankroll on Bovada to start playing 10nl.



Having reached the goal, that's enough of Bovada for a bit. Now I'm going back to Carbon which I like best and play there for a while. I did take my money off Black Chip and the check arrived yesterday and I deposited it today. When that clears I'll put most of it on Carbon. So I should be at 10nl on Carbon soon too.

Currently I'm at $200 on Carbon and I need $400 to play 10nl according to my brm strategy. Probably I'll put about $150 of my Black Chip money on Carbon. I've decided to do it by site and not have an aggregate bankroll because that means I'm really over-rolled which I like since I'm very conservative financially anyway.

[Savy]

$400 to play 10nl, you're doing something wrong there. When you're playing the micros where you winrate should be really high you should be being aggressive. So having 40BI's for 10nl is just wrong.

[Carroters]

Your BR management should reflect your level of comfort. If you feel comfortable with 40BIs and like you'd be subject to tilt/scared money etc by being less well rolled then I think $400 for 10NL sounds fine. Also, your winrate isn't supposed to be huge unless you're skilful enough for it to be huge. If you don't feel competent enough to have a big win rate at 10NL then it mostly likely won't be huge and you can easily suffer a 10-15 BI downswing through negative variance.

With BR management different strokes different folks IMO

[Savy]

Being comfortable is something I agree with, however 40BI is restrictive and detrimental to the pace at which you'll be moving up imo. The win rate being large should just be a consequence of playing and getting better at this level.

[abelardx]

TBH I don't think I'm beating the games right now. My graph says b/e over about 40k hands. I think I can easily beat the micro games so long as I think about what I'm doing and stop reacting emotionally.

As far as moving up and taking shots that's fine. I'm personally not interested in trying to move up real fast. My brm strategy, 40 bi for 10nl and 10 more bi for each level beyond that, insures that I'm definitely beating each level before moving up.

I'm cheating a little bit with the move from 5nl to 10nl because I didn't win all the bi's playing cash games. Some came from the FTR tournament and some from bonuses. But I'm OK with that because, from what I can see so far, 5nl and 10nl play very much the same.

When I'm clearly winning I might move to an aggregate bankroll, X bi's for stakes Y, spread across all the sites I play, instead of having that amount on each. But I'm not even sure about that. I do like this setup though because I'm never worried about variance downswings.

As far as beating the micros, I do think I have the knowledge. The missing ingredient is a little emotional control. Anyhow I'm very confident that I will beat the micros moving forward.

[abelardx]

Got an unexpected $100 payout from the Bovada initial deposit bonus this morning. Sweet! It would be nice to be able to tell what bonuses we have active, how close we are to earning a payout etc, but I have not found that information anywhere on the Bovada webpage. Possibly it is secret information.

edit:

It would also be really nice to get our hand histories immediately after playing so we can review the session right then instead of having to wait a day or two. That really sucks. But I still feel compelled to play on Bovada because it is easily the fishiest US-facing site. I'm leery about playing on Carbon because all my non-ABC aggtard stuff works against the microtags there and I'm afraid of developing bad habits. In any case I want to have a good fish-crushing ABC style that I can play automatically and have as a backup at any stake.

[griffey24]

TBH I don't think I'm beating the games right now. My graph says b/e over about 40k hands. I think I can easily beat the micro games so long as I think about what I'm doing and stop reacting emotionally.

As far as moving up and taking shots that's fine. I'm personally not interested in trying to move up real fast. My brm strategy, 40 bi for 10nl and 10 more bi for each level beyond that, insures that I'm definitely beating each level before moving up.

I'm cheating a little bit with the move from 5nl to 10nl because I didn't win all the bi's playing cash games. Some came from the FTR tournament and some from bonuses. But I'm OK with that because, from what I can see so far, 5nl and 10nl play very much the same.

When I'm clearly winning I might move to an aggregate bankroll, X bi's for stakes Y, spread across all the sites I play, instead of having that amount on each. But I'm not even sure about that. I do like this setup though because I'm never worried about variance downswings.

As far as beating the micros, I do think I have the knowledge. The missing ingredient is a little emotional control. Anyhow I'm very confident that I will beat the micros moving forward.

I think this is a very safe BRM strategy. Though I think (assume? since I haven't played these stakes in a long time) that lower stakes games are still somewhat passive enough / lower variance that you can still be sure you're beating a level and move up when you have 20-25 buyins and just implement a more aggressive drop back down strategy. You will really slow your growth waiting for 40 buyins imo.

But everyone has a difference tolerance. Just my two cents!

[abelardx]

Here's how I came up with the brm strategy. The goal is to grind mid stakes professionally, both 6max and HU, and should that ever happen I'll want to have 100 buy-ins. So I thought I'd gradually work up to the 100 bi roll 10 bi's at a time, starting with 40 bi for 10nl and going up an extra 10 bi at each stakes level.

That's how I came up with it anyway but I really don't know what other people do.

What are some 'standard' brm strategies?

[griffey24]

I think standard for a lot of ppl is to move up at 20-25 buyins at a particular level. Drop down after you lose a few buyins. And repeat.

If you're in an aggressive game, with lots of pre-flop all-ins etc, then you need more buyins for sure. I moved to stars a few months ago and started at 1/2 grinding up my roll there and had a 30 buyin upswing and a 30 buyin downswing over the first few months. But I can't imagine 10, 25 or 50nl being quite that aggro.

Maybe things at 100nl. I'm not sure though, since I'm not familiar with those games.

Either way, 40 is very conservative. Somewhere in between, like 30 buy-ins you should be fine I'm sure.

Oh and also yes if you are playing HU then ofcourse this changes everything cause you'll need way more buyins HU. All my suggestions are purely for 6max.

[Carroters]

I definitely agree your BR management should become more and more conservative as you move up the limits. IIRC I had a strategy which was 20BI for 25NL, 30BI for 50NL and 40BI for 100NL. Since returning to the grind I've opted for having a 60BI roll for 200NL and not moving down unless it takes a serious hit.

Times have changed somewhat though since then and if 25 and 50 are playing a lot tougher these days then 40BIs is probably very reasonable depending on your skill level and comfort level with a bankroll.

Re: your limping strategy I think it's really good in many situations like you describe. A lack of preflop and postflop fold equity makes your c bets go multiway more often and have to get through stations to succeed, which turns isoing really wide into a money burning profession.

When I first played live cash, one of the worst things I did was isoing 25NL 6 max style multiway preflop. In game where people are huge stations and are not fit or fold on the flop you need to be isoing bigger with a tighter range and limping behind in quite a few spots with hands you don't want to do this with.

[abelardx]

Thanks for the info, guys. I'm definitely going to build a more aggressive shot-taking substrategy into the BRM plan. I don't have to think about it right now because I just moved up to 10nl, but probably something like, if up 10 bi at current stakes, take a 3bi shot at higher stakes.

10nl is going pretty well. I've defaulted to a tighter game focusing on 1. value betting and 2. not paying off. I only have a few thousand hands so far but it looks like this is clearly winning. One weird thing with this strategy is you take more beats simply because you're getting it in good most of the time.

[abelardx]

I've got to get back to stoving hands and thinking about ranges and hopefully building some useful intuition. It's a little slow right now because I'm taking two Coursera courses, one on R and one on statistics, and starting another one on game theory soon. There's also my learning to program blog that I haven't worked on in months. I do want to get back to all that and keep it up but right now I'm happy just to be playing poker. I watched a DC sthief09 video recently where he said that in the beginning it's important to grind a lot of hands, and the study : play ratio should be like 1:4, which I've been taking as the green light to just keep playing a lot. Which of course is what I want to do anyway. I will have to find some extra time and some balance for all this other stuff though.

Haha just had the best session. lol First hand on one table I got AA vs QQ aiotf and held, and first hand on another table I had 66 and flopped a boat against trips and got his full stack. Pretty sweet. No reciprocality advantage though, because they really didn't do anything wrong except get dealt coolers.

[Savy]

That study to play ratio sounds like bullshit. Like really bad. Can you explain why he said that in more detail?

[abelardx]

^^ His comments are from Moving Beyond Microstakes Episode 1, around 28 minutes in to around 38 minutes in.

To put it in context, he first notes that there are players who don't study enough, which is probably most players, and there are also people who study too much relative to how much they play. His comments are really directed at the second group, which he says he belongs to, and I think I belong to, and probably many of us actively concerned with getting better are in this second group. To this group, sthief09 says we need to play a lot to go along with the study:

beginning around 28:20, the segment marked 'Efficient use of time'

31:07 'The best way to get better is by playing more.'

32:30 'Hand reading is just so critical and the only way to get better at it is by playing more [and practicing it].'

35:50 (typed notes) 'Ratio of study-to-play should be closer to 1:3 or 1:4.' and also 'GRIND!'

So he's certainly not putting down study, not at all, but he is emphasizing playing a lot as being very important for improving too.

[griffey24]

Given that most ppl only grind like 1.5-2 hours at a time, I think that ratio is pretty bad. That's suggesting like 30mins of studying per 1.5 hour grind. I think you need way more studying than that, especially grinding up lower stakes and learning more.

Now that's not to say, Grind LESS. That's to say Study MORE, and put in MORE TIME overall.

[Pascal]

Exactly what griffey is saying. Now is the time to learn as much as possible. At low stakes your hourly is low, and you can increase your edge significantly with relatively little study time compared to higher stakes. Put in the time now, not when you move up and a) get crushed or b) have to dedicate masses of time to studying and catching up with where you should be on a natural scale of progression.

[abelardx]

OK, the verdict is in. I will re-commence studying as much as playing.

[Savy]

There's no point studying for the sake of studying, but at this level you should always have stuff that you are working on that directly improves your game. So much so that I think a 50/50 split is like the minimum really to improve at a good pace.

[griffey24]

Put it this way. I've been grinding for like 6 years now and have grinded up to playing regularly at 5/10 and 10/20 a few years back and now gotten beat back down to grinding 1/2 and 2/4 now and I'm STILL putting in 50/50 study/grind I'd say.

[abelardx]

Put it this way. I've been grinding for like 6 years now and have grinded up to playing regularly at 5/10 and 10/20 a few years back and now gotten beat back down to grinding 1/2 and 2/4 now and I'm STILL putting in 50/50 study/grind I'd say.

It's really cool and I'm sure much appreciated by everyone how much you post in BC, Griffey. That's a real resource for us. Same for Carroters and Micro2Macro.

[griffey24]

It's really cool and I'm sure much appreciated by everyone how much you post in BC, Griffey. That's a real resource for us. Same for Carroters and Micro2Macro.

Thanks hope it helps! I'm sure sometimes my advice is more geared towards different games, but hopefully most applies.

[abelardx]

This is why we should not bluff at the micros. Usually they fold to the river shove. But not this guy. He is super sheriff.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($2.84)
Hero (BB) ($19.24)
UTG ($13.56)
Button ($11.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 9
1 fold, Button calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25) 10, 6, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.75) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.30, Button raises to $3.85, Hero calls $1.55

River: ($8.45) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $15.04 (All-In), Button calls $7.30 (All-In)

Total pot: $23.05 | Rake: $1

Results below:

Spoiler: Show

Button had 3, Q (two pair, sixes and threes).
Hero had 7, 9 (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Button won $22.05

[griffey24]

I mean... not that he's thinking on this level. But your line doesn't make much sense anyhow...? What hand that you didn't jam turn with, would you want to open jam this particular river with? Jamming a heart.. sure ok maybe, but probably not this card.

Also I'd rather not attempt an elaborate bluff after facing a pot size bet, his range on average is prob just stronger. Or at least not folding.

[abelardx]

Yeah that was an emotion-driven play with no real reasoning behind it. I was still surprised by what he called with though. He's not getting bullied by some jerk clicking buttons. Good for him. I hope he keeps playing.

My 10nl ABC strategy has been going pretty well. This hand is a big aberration. Focusing on not paying off and not bluffing is saving me a ton of chips and definitely put me in the black. So far I'm up 7 bi over 8k hands. I'll post a graph and some stats soon.

[abelardx]

How many sites do you guys play on? Do you think there's any disadvantage to only playing on one site?

I'm thinking of taking my whole roll and putting it on Bovada. I've been playing there exclusively recently and I'll probably continue to do so because it is super fishy and supposedly the most trustworthy for US players. If I take my Carbon money and put it on Bovada I'd probably be rolled for 25 nl really soon but then I'd also have all my eggs in one basket.

[griffey24]

For my entire poker career i have been pretty bad at multi-siting, and almost exclusively just played on one site at a time. Was always my personal preference. I don't think it's a bad thing, as long as you aren't forced to 2-table due to lack of volume, when you'd rather be 8 tabling.

[abelardx]

I think Bovada has the most traffic of the US facing sites too. I wish their software was better, though. They don't have any real table customization, no wait lists, no automatic top ups, and of course no hand histories til next day. Other than that stuff, though, the player pool is just awesome. I haven't done it yet but I probably will move my Carbon roll over at some point and just play on Bovada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's my graph for 10 nl so far. Much better than the 5 nl graph. It's really clear now that the micros are all about making a hand and potting it. It's not so much that everybody is a station, it's more like so many people constantly run big stupid bluffs, which makes the stations' behavior rather reasonable really.

In any case, I was doing awesome around 5k hands, winrate of something like 10-12 bb/100. Then some runbad. Then some card death, leading to tilt. I think being card dead is one of my tilt triggers. I start to feel like 'it's my turn' and you have to fold to me, but of course you can't force it. So that's something I need to explicitly watch out for.

I'm up about $180 but most of that is the end of my initial deposit bonus. Without tilting those few times I'd probably be up about another 10 bi. So I need to work on that.



I've also struggled a bit with the whole when-to-limp thing. I do think it's +EV sometimes the way these games are, but it's easy to slide into passive weak-tight play, and I need to watch out for that.

I feel good about things though. I'm winning so far and I think with some realistic improvement I can do even better. Overall I'm pretty confident about beating 10 nl and moving up to 25 sometime in the near future.

[abelardx]

PS I know the stove has gone kinda cold recently. Unfortunately it's going to have to stay cold for a bit as I deal with Coursera coursework and other stuff I want/need to do. However I am committed to stoving a bunch of hands and breaking down ranges still because I do believe that is probably the best way to build good intuition and start hand reading.

[BorisTheSpider]

It's really cool and I'm sure much appreciated by everyone how much you post in BC, Griffey. That's a real resource for us. Same for Carroters and Micro2Macro.

Yeah this - getting the kind of input we get in the BC from better players is invaluable, and I want to second this - thanks Griffey/Carroters/M2M and anyone else I've forgotten.

Cool thread too abelardx, nice to get an insight into other peoples process of learning.

[abelardx]

Yeah this - getting the kind of input we get in the BC from better players is invaluable, and I want to second this - thanks Griffey/Carroters/M2M and anyone else I've forgotten.

Cool thread too abelardx, nice to get an insight into other peoples process of learning.

Thanks, Boris, and thanks for posting so many hands to give us something to discuss in BC. I should post more but I usually forget about it since Bovada delays the hand histories.

One thing for us to keep in mind with the hand comments is that the games can play very differently on different sites. Since coming back I've only played on Bovada, Carbon, and Black Chip. Black Chip and Carbon are reg-infested. I'm not saying they're all great but it's a very different game than Bovada where they seem to have captured the US market for recreational players. I imagine Stars is somewhere between Bovada and Black Chip but I really don't know.

[griffey24]

Limping

I'm sure it's +EV in some of these games, but I would be surprised if it was MORE +EV than just raising in the first place. Also you'll get into bad habits!

I may limp behind multiple limpers IP (on the button), but I probably wouldn't ever open the pot for a limp.

[abelardx]

Limping

I'm sure it's +EV in some of these games, but I would be surprised if it was MORE +EV than just raising in the first place. Also you'll get into bad habits!

I may limp behind multiple limpers IP (on the button), but I probably wouldn't ever open the pot for a limp.

I agree and I've reverted to a more aggressive preflop strategy. Limping behind has actually been profitable for me at 21.07 bb/100. The preflop situation that is killing me is flatting raises which has been running -65 bb/100. So my main adjustment has been to rarely flat oop but to 3bet or fold more. Open raising is still the bread and butter play at 116 bb/100.

[griffey24]

I agree and I've reverted to a more aggressive preflop strategy. Limping behind has actually been profitable for me at 21.07 bb/100. The preflop situation that is killing me is flatting raises which has been running -65 bb/100. So my main adjustment has been to rarely flat oop but to 3bet or fold more. Open raising is still the bread and butter play at 116 bb/100.

Yah I think ppl underestimate how bad/marginal cold calling raises is. I've done analysis on previous databases when I had a lot more hands, and it's never been that great. This was especially true in the games I was playing when there was also a higher risk of getting squeezed.

[abelardx]

How To Read Hands by Ed Miller

The Three Principles of Hand Reading:

• Players play the way they do for a reason.
• Few players bluff with the correct frequency. Most don't bluff nearly enough. Some bluff way too much.
• Information from large bets and calls is more reliable than information from small bets and calls.

The key to hand-reading is assigning realistic ranges. Then one narrows the range street by street inferring information from the player's actions while taking into account villain's player type.

Hand-reading is only one part of skillful nlhe play however. Other important skills are estimating the equity of your hand against your opponent's range on that board and bet sizing and pot management.

Player Types:

FISH, very common in my games

• play for the thrill of gambling
• often suspicious
• love to bluff catch and will call light

MANIACS, not too common in my games

• bluff excessively
• love to raise
• try to win every hand

NITS, not too common in my games

• motivated by the fear of losing
• often weaktight

REGS, common in my games

• educated about poker
• don't do anything too stupid
• far from perfect however

There are different kinds of fish, and it's very important to study the fish in your games because they are the foundation of the poker economy. I don't want to break the category down further because I don't think there are clearly defined sub-types but rather several common counter-strategies one should watch out for.

The two main things are how fish react to:

• more aggressive tag preflop play
• the microtag's high rate of c-betting

Fish preflop counter-strategies when facing agressive raises etc:

1. opening with a min-raise
2. min 3-betting
3. the go n go
4. limping a tighter range

1. A dumb blocking bet, essentially meaningless, treat it as a limp.

2. Depends on the player. It can be KK+ for some or a prelude to the go n go.

3. Becoming very common. A fish min 3-bets, often from the blinds, you call, they donk out pot. Often a bluff but I still wouldn't play back light as they are unlikely to fold big aces or any pair.

4. I don't have stats from Bovada but I do from Carbon, and many fish have tightened up considerably preflop. They have changed their ranges but not their behavior. I've even seen players that are like 15/2 vpip/pfr. Be on the lookout for these players and do not isolate them with weak hands.

Fish counter-strategies when facing a lot of c-bets:

1. donking small
2. donking big
3. min c/r
4. calling

1. Fish love to make probe bets. The small donk, anywhere from a min bet to half pot, doesn't mean much. Raising will often take it down esp on one-high-card flops. If the fish calls a raise however, your fold equity is basically zero.

2. I don't often look these up. I believe they are sometimes bluffs but often made hands that don't want to take a lot of heat. I wouldn't bluff these too much though because even if it is only tpwk, they are not folding.

3. Usually a bluff, sometimes the nuts.

4. Still the fish favorite. The call literally means any pair, any draw.

My thoughts on playing with the fish:

The bluffier fish are fun to play. It's always hugely +ev to play anyone who will build a big pot with a weak hand. Be patient, make a hand, profit.

Are fish stupid? No they are not. They are merely uneducated about poker. Many fish are successful in real life. They know they are not winners, but they don't mind paying for the entertainment value.

Don't treat the fish like morons. Don't try to win every hand. If your hand totally sucks, occasionally just give up and check it down or fold the flop even as pfr. This will go a long way to building trust at the table and you will want credit more often than not.

Don't make it obvious that you're trying to run them over. When people make hands, the hand is often fated to play out a certain way, but much of the time nobody has anything. Your winrate depends on how you handle those situations. You don't want to be obviously out of line. You just want to be slightly more out of line than the next guy.

So don't think the fish are idiots. That will backfire. Appear to show some respect and don't always bully them. Take advantage of their numerous poker mistakes, namely, draw cheap and value bet the hell out of made hands.

-----

I'm going to return to working through Miller's book, but from now on I'm going to use ranges from my games and not the 1/2 live ranges Miller uses. I'm also going to lump exercises together and generalize them a little bit.

[abelardx]

My current bovada mods: