River sizing?

[seven-deuce]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

BB ($5)
UTG ($5.91)
Hero (MP) ($6.53)
CO ($2.83)
Button ($5.26)
SB ($5.72)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $0.15, 2 folds, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.35) 3, 10, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.35) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.15, SB calls $0.15

River: ($0.65) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $0.20, Hero raises to ???


Villain is running 54/19/40/5.9 over a 50 hand sample.

Vpip/PFR/Cbet%/3bet%

[rpm]

i jam

[Fielmann]

He is not very passive, so if he has a full house we'll get the money in regardless. So I'd raise quite small, like 0.60-0.80, to get value from his two-pair hands.

[rong]

.75

[griffey24]

Bet harder on the turn for sure. You're def way ahead when he checked, and it looks strange to try repping Tx trips once you check the flop.

0.25 on the turn, and probably make it $1.20, same sizing I would have made it if he had bet 0.35-0.4.

[rpm]

He is not very passive, so if he has a full house we'll get the money in regardless. So I'd raise quite small, like 0.60-0.80, to get value from his two-pair hands.

personally i was thinking this guys VP/PFR gap would indicate he is more likely to be a passive fish type who got AA or KK in this 50 hand sample and so had a hand he was happy to 3b/CB on the couple of flops he's had the initiative on. what are others thoughts on this? if we're not assuming he's a complete passive fish then i probably don't jam. my rationale for doing that was because we maximise our value when fish gets shocked/confused by our river size and his finger clicks call before he even thinks about what we could have because he has just improved to TOP TRIPS!

that was way too long to ask a simple question. where's the high thread again

[seven-deuce]

I think jamming may actually be the best here too. If he never folds his weaker trips e.g. T9,TJ,QT then it will probably have the highest EV. If villain will fold these weaker trips to a jam but call a hefty bet with them it might swing the other way though.

Villain was calling a wide-ish range but not an unreasonable amount so we can rule out T5 and T3 and heavily discount T8 he might call with T8s sometimes. But i just realized that's blocked so he never has T8 either. So we only lose to TT basically.

I might work out the EV of shoving vs the EV of raising to say $2 after lunch, although i think jamming is gonna be way higher.

[rpm]

I might work out the EV of shoving vs the EV of raising to say $2 after lunch, although i think jamming is gonna be way higher.

this is always a good exercise. i think there are definitely appropriate spots to overbet a nut-heavy range vs microstakes players that many people may miss

[griffey24]

People are way too focused on Tx here.

If you have a strong read that he's capable of betting strong hands (ie: Tx, worsee boats) .2 into .65 then I can see maybe jamming or raising harder.

Otherwise, his range has waay more pairs under 8x here.

If 5% of this range can call a shove, for $5.20 more, then you make 0.26 on average.

So for raising to $1.20 to be just as profitable, then x% of his range has to call (0.26/1.20) = 21.6% of this range at least. If more than 22% of his range can call $1.20 then this is the better sizing.

This ofcourse changes a lot, the more of his range you truly believe can call a $5.20 shove.

But this does bring up an important aspect, to not always be SOO focused on what the very top of ppl's ranges can call, if their ranges are much wider and the majority of their range will more likely call something else.