River sizing?

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

I might work out the EV of shoving vs the EV of raising to say $2 after lunch, although i think jamming is gonna be way higher.

this is always a good exercise. i think there are definitely appropriate spots to overbet a nut-heavy range vs microstakes players that many people may miss

People are way too focused on Tx here.

If you have a strong read that he's capable of betting strong hands (ie: Tx, worsee boats) .2 into .65 then I can see maybe jamming or raising harder.

Otherwise, his range has waay more pairs under 8x here.

If 5% of this range can call a shove, for $5.20 more, then you make 0.26 on average.

So for raising to $1.20 to be just as profitable, then x% of his range has to call (0.26/1.20) = 21.6% of this range at least. If more than 22% of his range can call $1.20 then this is the better sizing.

This ofcourse changes a lot, the more of his range you truly believe can call a $5.20 shove.

But this does bring up an important aspect, to not always be SOO focused on what the very top of ppl's ranges can call, if their ranges are much wider and the majority of their range will more likely call something else.