[5NL] AKs OOP against UTG 4bet

[daviddem]

{ 99+,AJs+,KdQd,KhQh,AQo+ } is 74 combos. (I eliminated 1/2 of the KQ combos since you said maybe.)

{ JJ+,AKs,AKo } is 40 combos.
So that means Villain folds 74 - 40 hands out of 74, or 34/74, which is 46%.

{ KK+,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,AKs,AKo } is 31 combos. (Again, I took out 1/2 of the QQ combos, since you said maybe.)
So Villain folds (40 - 31)/40 = 23% of the time, and Villain calls (1 - 23%) = 77% of the time

When Villain calls, you have ~41% equity.

So, the EV of your jam is:
money you win when Villain folds * percent of the time Villain folds
+ money you win when villain calls * percent of the time Villain calls.
$2.02*23% + (money you win when villain calls)*77%

Right now you have $6.52.
If you win, you will have $14.16. You will net $14.16 - $6.52 = $8.54, which will happen 41% of the time.
If you lose, you will lose $6.52, which will happen 59% of the time.
(Note: this just splits the equity evenly for the case of chopped pots.)

So, the money you win when villain calls is
$8.54*41% - $6.52*59%

And the whole EV calculation is
EV = $2.02*23% + ($8.54*41% - $6.52*59%)*77%
which reduces to:
EV = $0.45 + ($3.50 - $3.78)*0.77
EV = $0.45 + (-$0.28)*0.77
EV = $0.45 + -$0.22
EV = $0.23

The point is not to look at the EV of the shove in a vacuum, it's to compare it to the EV of other plays.

How do you profit when he only calls the shove with hands equal to or better than yours, and he folds all the hands that you crush? He is not making any mistake.

If you were taking the above ranges for granted, you'd be much better off calling, even oop, because of all that gob of hands in his range that you dominate and that he is going to stack off with when you both hit.

Now for the actual hand/ranges, I think he calls a lot with much worse, and you may get folds from some lower PP's, so shoving is still fine.

[Cobra_1878]

The point is not to look at the EV of the shove in a vacuum, it's to compare it to the EV of other plays.

How do you profit when he only calls the shove with hands equal to or better than yours, and he folds all the hands that you crush? He is not making any mistake.

If you were taking the above ranges for granted, you'd be much better off calling, even oop.

Now for the actual hand/ranges, I think he calls a lot with much worse, and you may get folds from some lower PP's, so shoving is still fine.

This is the point I am trying to make. Against most regs, this is the situation you will find yourself in most often.