A6s on BTn HU nut FD OTF

[WeldPhaser]

22+,A7s+,A5s,KTs+,K8s,QJs,JTs,Td9d,Th9h,9d8d,9h8h, 8d7d,8h7h,AJo+,KQo
[P] Here's the range I came up pre-fl, Villain is 21/16/5 over 170 . fit-fold post so far. i only includued a couple #'s of sc's cause I think sometimes he does/doesn't. Obv was really hoping for some more callers pre.
[F] About 18% of his range has TP Kx , and slightly more (22%) are Ax Since we hold an ace its 5% less likely he has one here. PP's make up an almost equal (19%) also , and there are very, very few OESD, and GS' OTF. Villain cbets=67% .
Looking at this info maybe raising his cbet woud be fine? if he re-raises depending on the size we can prob just get irt inm and if he b/c's then it should really define his range, and he'll have a hard time folding when our flush comes, and we still have outs to our A, and BDSD's as well.


Revolution Gaming Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $9.85
SB: $7.97
BB: $10.00
UTG: $5.34
MP: $13.48
CO: $10.85

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 6 A

fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 8 K 7
MP bets $0.50, ???

[daviddem]

raise

[WeldPhaser]

raise

OK cool, I was trying to post a sorta thought process in the OP.

What's ur reasoning for a raise dem? some of the same stuff I listed?

[spoonitnow]

As played, As6s should probably be in your raising range on the flop because it's one of your very best bluffing hands with an overcard, a runner straight draw and the nut flush draw (plus blockers to AA and AK).

That being said, I'd prefer a 3-bet pre-flop with a bit of ATs-A2s here.

[daviddem]

^^ what he said. Because A6s is one of the strongest hands of the range you could be bluffing with (one of the ones that has the strongest pot equity vs the range of your opponent). In other words, if you don't bluff with A6s here, it pretty much means you never ever bluff (except maybe with an open ended straight flush draw).

It's also good for balance against regs.

Besides, what else are you going to do? Chasing your draw or folding seem like inferior options.

I am also looking at your pf range, why is it that, for example, you include Td9d and Th9h but not Tc9c? Also with a PFR of 16% it is arguable (not impossible though) whether he raises stuff like 87s-T9s, A5s-A8s and 22-66.

Now write us a piece on the EV of your semi-bluff, say if you make a half pot-sized raise. Split his cbetting range into hands that fold, hands that call and hands that shove over and do some math. Then should you call if he shoves over with the shoving range you came up with?

Note: this can get quite complicated, so you will have to make some simplifying (conservative) assumptions, such as "when he calls I will only win 25% of the time in the end" (either because you will go to showdown and loose, or because you will have to fold the turn). For starters, you can even start by assuming that he will only fold or shove over, never call.

[spoonitnow]

While it's useful to do what daviddem recommended, a slightly less concrete way of thinking about it is to realize that you should be bluff raising some percentage of the time on the flop, to figure out what the best hands are to bluff raise with, and then to look at how that compares to the number of hands that you would raise with for value.

The approach that daviddem is recommending is more about deciding if you can raise for exploitation purposes, and this second approach is more about learning what balanced ranges look like so that you know how much you'll need to actually be raising here to be exploiting the guy in a meaningful way.

I'm of the opinion that doing both of these things is important.

Edit: Quick example using a starting range that I pulled out of my ass.

If I called pre-flop with {TT-55, AQ-AJ, KQ, QJs-54s} here, then I would probably be able to raise profitably with 88, 77, 87s, KsQs, Ts9s and 6s5s for value. That's about 12 starting hand combinations. I would have some pretty good semi-bluffing hands available as well like QsJs, JsTs, 5s4s, AsQs, AsJs, AdQd, AdJd, T9s, 65s, JdTd and 5d4d. We could raise with all of these hands above and be doing alright, but that would neglect our calling range.

We would probably want to call with hands like KQ, TT-99 and 98s for at least one street, but we'd need to call with some stronger hands to avoid getting barreled to death. We'd also need to call with some draws to avoid spots where we can't ever have a spade on a turn or river. We should either call with some weaker non-spade draw hands so that we can raise spades as a bluff sometimes or bluff raise some turn and river spades with hands like 8d7d.

[daviddem]

Also +1 that this is a good hand to add to your preflop 3b bluffing range against this type of opp, more so if you have people with squeeze tendencies in the blinds, less so if you have stations in the blinds.

It's a good hand, because you block a lot of his strongest combos with your A, if he calls it's a hand that plays well post flop (can flop the nuts, can flop strong draws, can flop top pair and when it does not flop well it's an easy fold) and if he 4b it's an easy fold (unlike hands like AQ or AJs).

It's also a good spot because you have position and if he plays decently well he should hate flatting the 3b OOP.

[d0zer]

this is a good hand to add to your preflop 3b bluffing range against this type of opp, more so if you have people with squeeze tendencies in the blinds, less so if you have stations in the blinds.

It's certainly a strong enough hand that we can call here, and I think I would a lot of the time, but yes wat you said about the blinds.

[Cobra_1878]

Just out of curiosity, if we raise this flop and get re-raised are we happy to get our stack in here?

[Pascal]

Cobra, you can answer that question yourself Put in a range you think he shoves (I'm thinking sets, two pairs, strong kings and a few worse flush draws) into Pokerstove and post the results

EDIT: This is obviously assuming he shoves, rather than re-raising. To work out whether it would be equitable when he shoves, you need: the range you think he re-raises & the range you think he calls when you shove. From there, you can work it out.

If the range you think he re-raises is the same range you think he calls (i.e. you don't think he ever 3bet folds here), then you can work out the equity against the first range and that'll give you the answer.

[MadMojoMonkey]

That's not a poker question, Cobra. Whether or not we're happy does not pertain to Hero's play. (please forgive grumpy monkey)

What equity would Hero have against Villain's range, and what pot odds would be offered?

How do you use those data to make an informed decision?

[d0zer]

We're not raising with the intention of folding ever, and I don't think stacking off is terrible, but it would be a whole lot better for our equity if this was BU vs blinds where he could have a lot more worse FDs, OESDs in his range that we have absolutely crushed. I'd rather call this with position and c/r OOP.

[WeldPhaser]

^^ what he said. Because A6s is one of the strongest hands of the range you could be bluffing with (one of the ones that has the strongest pot equity vs the range of your opponent). In other words, if you don't bluff with A6s here, it pretty much means you never ever bluff (except maybe with an open ended straight flush draw).

It's also good for balance against regs.

Besides, what else are you going to do? Chasing your draw or folding seem like inferior options.

I am also looking at your pf range, why is it that, for example, you include Td9d and Th9h but not Tc9c? Also with a PFR of 16% it is arguable (not impossible though) whether he raises stuff like 87s-T9s, A5s-A8s and 22-66.

Now write us a piece on the EV of your semi-bluff, say if you make a half pot-sized raise. Split his cbetting range into hands that fold, hands that call and hands that shove over and do some math. Then should you call if he shoves over with the shoving range you came up with?

Note: this can get quite complicated, so you will have to make some simplifying (conservative) assumptions, such as "when he calls I will only win 25% of the time in the end" (either because you will go to showdown and loose, or because you will have to fold the turn). For starters, you can even start by assuming that he will only fold or shove over, never call.

This post turned out to be really informative. thanks everyone. especially dem & spoon.

I'm going to work on the EV of semi-bluffing here, and balancing my c/r range . I'll post it up later, and see what you guys think.

Oh, david, you asked why i only had some combos of sc's. Well, i think maybe sometimes he folds them pre, and sometimes not. so i just choose a couple of them.

[daven]

default is to raise, calling is probably better in this spot with position and vs an ep open

edit: also, wow at the posts from spoon and daviddem. Great posts, thanks heaps.