AK river decision??

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm guessing that so many have read this thread and not responded because your analysis is quite thorough... making it hard to contradict your conclusions.

Kudos!

Personally, I like b/f. Villain can pay you off with worse, but he's probably not raising here with less than a straight (unlikely) or a flush. Since you've shown that Villain checked behind, I'm assuming it wasn't a flush... probably not 2 pr, unless Villain loves to get involved in position w/ low connectors.

The bet is $3.00, it's just under half of what Villain has behind, and is enough to push him off of most hands, without committing you to his shove if he shoves.

Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

[seven-deuce]

The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

Does everybody else agree with this? My thought was it was a thin value bet which i shyed away from.

Do you think its a bluff because the FD came in and there's a 4straight on board?

Okay considering the straight then, 55 is basically the only hand in his range containing a 5 which is a very small part of his range and although its possible he called twice with it it's more likely to be 77-TT as there is only 1overcard to these PP's.

There are a few combos of flushes as well. But there must be more combos of worse PP's and worse kings to make this for thin value? Discounting sets think he would most likely re raise turn with any maybe even flop.

So he will payoff with a number of worse hands, and considering my 3bet pre we can't really rep a 5, only a flush AQ AJ of hearts probably.

The only hands beating me in his range are 55 and disguised sets (if any) also flushes and by betting the river i don't think were folding out any of these hands so it would be a pretty bad bluff spot?

It's definitely a mistake not betting, when i check it's unlikely he's ever betting a worse king on that board after considering my aggression up to the river, same goes for 77-TT, he's only gonna bet 55 and flushes. Could also bluff me out of the pot by shoving too.

[rpm]

It's definitely a mistake not betting, when i check it's unlikely he's ever betting a worse king on that board after considering my aggression up to the river, same goes for 77-TT, he's only gonna bet 55 and flushes. Could also bluff me out of the pot by shoving too.

you nailed it.

villain calling range is larger than betting range -> we have >50% equity against calling range -> betting is better than checking (and it's for value too)

[eugmac]

Villain can pay you off with worse...
...
Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

So is it a value bet or a bluff? I'm confused as hell, dude.

If he'll call off another bet with Kx then it's a bet. Not including stuff like KQ and KJ in villain's range sounds really bad. There's a good reason why we're betting the toppest pair with the toppest kicker...

[d0zer]

The bet is $3.00, it's just under half of what Villain has behind, and is enough to push him off of most hands, without committing you to his shove if he shoves.

Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

Yeah this all makes no sense. I actually don't mind a $3 bet here, but I still think a shove is better. If your intent is to bluff (do you think he's folding AA here or wat exactly are you 'bluffing' him off of?), you should be shoving. That's if we had air and we wanted him to fold TT-QQ. I wouldn't get in this spot with air vs this fish in the first place so it's moot.

That being said, there's no reason to bluff here. Villain will check behind all worse, bet most better hands, but will also call some worse so it's obviously a value bet as he doesn't have many 5s or hh hands in his range.

[rpm]

Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

i have no idea what you are talking about. or if you are being serious for that matter. you don't expect us to fold out anything stronger than what we hold here do you?