AK river decision??

Villain was 25/7 over 119 hands. Hadn't really noticed him at the table did not have him pegged for a total fish.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10)
UTG ($9.54)
MP ($14.66)
Button ($11.34)
Hero (SB) ($17.49)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
1 fold, MP bets $0.20, Button calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Button calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.90) K, 2, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, Button calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.30) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, Button calls $2.60

River: ($9.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Total pot: $9.50 | Rake: $0.43

Preflop my range for villain was 22-TT and some JTs JQs type hands.

His flop calling range i assigned was FD's like JQs JTs, 77-TT, looking back at the hand now in HEM obviously some worse kings KQ KJ although it's less likely as there are 2 exposed. Although during the hand i never included this.

His turn calling range i thought was still mainly underpairs 77-TT or FD's.

Then the river the FD completes and i shit the brick obv versus this range i think b/f is best especially if you add in worse kings. people were clicking it back at me quite a bit during this session so i chose the passive line which i think was a mistake, before i checked i was planning on c/c anything but a shove.

I obviously think b/f is best line here when i bet bet bet a bluff shove is going to look a whole lot less attractive i think and their are plent of hands i am getting value from.

So b/f here yeah?

I'm guessing that so many have read this thread and not responded because your analysis is quite thorough... making it hard to contradict your conclusions.

Kudos!

Personally, I like b/f. Villain can pay you off with worse, but he's probably not raising here with less than a straight (unlikely) or a flush. Since you've shown that Villain checked behind, I'm assuming it wasn't a flush... probably not 2 pr, unless Villain loves to get involved in position w/ low connectors.

The bet is $3.00, it's just under half of what Villain has behind, and is enough to push him off of most hands, without committing you to his shove if he shoves.

Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

Does everybody else agree with this? My thought was it was a thin value bet which i shyed away from.

Do you think its a bluff because the FD came in and there's a 4straight on board?

Okay considering the straight then, 55 is basically the only hand in his range containing a 5 which is a very small part of his range and although its possible he called twice with it it's more likely to be 77-TT as there is only 1overcard to these PP's.

There are a few combos of flushes as well. But there must be more combos of worse PP's and worse kings to make this for thin value? Discounting sets think he would most likely re raise turn with any maybe even flop.

So he will payoff with a number of worse hands, and considering my 3bet pre we can't really rep a 5, only a flush AQ AJ of hearts probably.

The only hands beating me in his range are 55 and disguised sets (if any) also flushes and by betting the river i don't think were folding out any of these hands so it would be a pretty bad bluff spot?

It's definitely a mistake not betting, when i check it's unlikely he's ever betting a worse king on that board after considering my aggression up to the river, same goes for 77-TT, he's only gonna bet 55 and flushes. Could also bluff me out of the pot by shoving too.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

It's definitely a mistake not betting, when i check it's unlikely he's ever betting a worse king on that board after considering my aggression up to the river, same goes for 77-TT, he's only gonna bet 55 and flushes. Could also bluff me out of the pot by shoving too.

you nailed it.

villain calling range is larger than betting range -> we have >50% equity against calling range -> betting is better than checking (and it's for value too)

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Villain can pay you off with worse...
...
Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

So is it a value bet or a bluff? I'm confused as hell, dude.

If he'll call off another bet with Kx then it's a bet. Not including stuff like KQ and KJ in villain's range sounds really bad. There's a good reason why we're betting the toppest pair with the toppest kicker...

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The bet is $3.00, it's just under half of what Villain has behind, and is enough to push him off of most hands, without committing you to his shove if he shoves.

Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

Yeah this all makes no sense. I actually don't mind a $3 bet here, but I still think a shove is better. If your intent is to bluff (do you think he's folding AA here or wat exactly are you 'bluffing' him off of?), you should be shoving. That's if we had air and we wanted him to fold TT-QQ. I wouldn't get in this spot with air vs this fish in the first place so it's moot.

That being said, there's no reason to bluff here. Villain will check behind all worse, bet most better hands, but will also call some worse so it's obviously a value bet as he doesn't have many 5s or hh hands in his range.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Hero has TPTK. The bet is a bluff, just to be clear.

i have no idea what you are talking about. or if you are being serious for that matter. you don't expect us to fold out anything stronger than what we hold here do you?

WAT

25/7 is a fish value ship vs any shit he wants to call with, it's a shame the flush came in cos it scares folks off, but we are still betting for value.

I really feel like c/c is a sketchy move for Hero, since the board is so scary, what will bet here instead of just checking back, besides the flush?

I think c/f turns this hand into complete spew.

Therefore, I'm left with b/c, which seems donk-tarded, or b/f.

So I went with b/f because there is some chance to get paid off by worse, but mostly I want to get a small blocker bet out there, to protect from the shove vs. most of Villain's range. I said it's a bluff because Hero does not have the flush, which is what a bet reps here.

A $3 bet is about 1/3 pot and just under 1/2 Villain's remaining stack, so it seems like a great amount to force a difficult situation on Villain.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I really feel like c/c is a sketchy move for Hero, since the board is so scary, what will bet here instead of just checking back, besides the flush?

I think c/f turns this hand into complete spew.

c/f is infinitely better than c/c vs a passive fish here. As a homework exercise, I leave you to tell me why.

Because when passive fish bet, they are showing extreme comfort in their hand, usually indicating the nuts. Because passive fish make their monies (if at all) by being calling stations at tables where people don't know why or when to bluff.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Because when passive fish bet, they are showing extreme comfort in their hand, usually indicating the nuts. Because passive fish make their monies (if at all) by being calling stations at tables where people don't know why or when to bluff.

Correct, but I'll have to deduct a few marks for suggesting that there are passive fish who make money

The passive fish isn't necessarily the worst player at every table. Also, the best player doesn't always win in the short term. It is conceivable that they could profit at micro stakes, at least in the short term.

When we talk about "making money", we're not talking about luckboxing a small sample. More marks deducted for incorrectly nitpicking semantics and describing variance to me as if I've never heard of the concept

You're a shark; I'm a fish. You're awesome; I suck. You're smart; I'm dumb. You're cool; I'm a nerd. You're a sexxy bitch; I'm... slightly less attractive.

Sorry if I'm off my game today. I am entertaining a friend from Saudi Arabia, so I'm really distracted and what-not.

Feel free to hate, but I can only forgive you, given how much I forgive in myself.

Maybe my analysis in this hand is based on suffering from a string of coolers yesterday, too. Unless it was you who I was playing against, in which case, I was just out-played.

sorry yer on a cooler bro. I too am sensitive when I'm coolering. think of how this oversentivity bleeds into your poker game negatively.

what i'm doing when I make these silly jabs at you is providing an opportunity for you to be resilient in the face of duress. without losing money while failing to do so. it's a completely unappreciated public service that few take advantage of, and that's unfortunate

dozer is the guy who punches you lightly in the stomach when you're stretch yawning to punish you for being tired in company.

shove river for value as played. a 25/7 will almost never have a flush, because he raised preflop and the Kh is blocked. also KK/AA are discounted because of our blockers and the fact that he didn't raise our flop CB (which fish who "slowplay" their aces preflop tend to do on 100% of flops). what he will have on this river most of the time is 88-QQ which will probably have a hard time folding.