10NL: Combo Draw + Pair OOP in ATS

[surviva316]

Hand Converter isn't working for me, so I'm just gonna type it out.

Anyway, 5-or-so orbits in and villain seems pretty positionally aware and pretty agressive preflop. He had 3b once or twice, had only entered pots by raising preflop and had stolen 100% from the button. His hands have been uneventful postflop thus far, so he's like 2/2 cbetting so far and that's about all I know postflop.

Preflop I thought that it was blind vs. blind which is why I called instead of 3b'ing or folding, so yeah, stop misreading where the button is; leak plugged.

$10.47 effective stack
Hero (SB) has

PREFLOP: ($0.15)
3 folds
Villain (BU) opens for $0.25
Hero calls $0.25
BB folds

FLOP: ($0.60)
Hero's turn to act....

[surviva316]

My thoughts on this are as follows:

-It's tough to weigh c/c because I don't know how cbet-happy he is. I could c/c the flop and lead/shove most any turn assuming that he'll bet flop/raise turn with a lot of draws, pair+draws and maybe even some air seeing as how my line is non-standard in a spot where we both have really wide ranges. This is actually my first time considering this option, and I don't mind it. I can probably barrel the river on a lot of board run-outs if he flats because he'll flat with a lot of mediocre pairs that have good outs.

-I hate c/c flop, c/x turn because if I c/r the turn, then I have to fold to a shove (which seems like I'm getting exploited), and if he checks back the turn, then I only have one street to get value/run a bluff that he'll probably call with preeeeeetty much everything that beats me.

-c/r: This play seems really bad because once he 3b's, he has nothing that will fold to a shove and i have ~45% against his 3b'ing range, so shoving over him is bad. c/r/c'ing is obviously dumb, so that leaves c/r/f'ing which just sounds like a great way for him to win a medium pot 100% of the time he has sets+ (as opposed to losing a big pot about half the time if I play it a different way).

NOTE: I lead for value a ton here (and people in general lead for value a ton), so my range is plenty balanced to do the following plays.

-lead/3b: I'm not sure about this, but this seems dumb. I can't imagine he's 4b shoving a range I'm any good against, and I'd be priced into a call, and I could lead/overshove, but we're talking about shoving like $9 into a pot of $3, and then I'm mostly facing the goods when he calls. I'm actually certain that this will make me a profit, but it doesn't seem optimal to me and I'm not sure what it does to my whole range.

-lead/call: This was what I was leaning toward til I thought through the c/c, lead turn option. If he raises, then I think I can c/shove the turn feeling pretty confident that he'll bet most of the time and feel like i'm getting plenty of fold equity (plenty more than my other, previously mentioned shove options) from pair+draw, good draw and a little bit of air type hands. I can also lead the turn again if I spike my spade without my hand being face-up.

If he just flats my flop lead, then I'd barrel almost all turns, but a turn raise would put me in a pickle (but I don't think he's often going to flat the flop only to raise the turn). In that spot, calling, 3b/f'ing and 3b/felting all seem bad to me.

I think I like c/c, lead turn the most, but I fear I might only think this because it gets me in the least amount of spots where I don't know what to do, instead of thinking it because it's optimal.

[/being in the silly/confused head of surviva lol]

[MadMojoMonkey]

-c/r: This play seems really bad because once he 3b's, he has nothing that will fold to a shove and i have ~45% against his 3b'ing range, so shoving over him is bad. c/r/c'ing is obviously dumb, so that leaves c/r/f'ing which just sounds like a great way for him to win a medium pot 100% of the time he has sets+ (as opposed to losing a big pot about half the time if I play it a different way).

Why do you take it for granted that villain will 3-bet? Villain has stolen 100% from the button, and this is a button raise. I should expect you have some fold equity here. Even if villain does 3-bet the flop, you have a ton of equity and all that money in the pot giving you great odds to at least call or CiB if not ship it.
How can you even think of folding OESFD on the flop as +EV?

[surviva316]

Why do you take it for granted that villain will 3-bet? Villain has stolen 100% from the button, and this is a button raise. I should expect you have some fold equity here. Even if villain does 3-bet the flop, you have a ton of equity and all that money in the pot giving you great odds to at least call or CiB if not ship it.
How can you even think of folding OESFD on the flop as +EV?

Well, I know that villain 3b'ing will be a fairly rare scenario given how wide his range is, so I know c/r'ing is +eV. I'm fairly confident that no matter what I do, I'll turn a profit, though, so I'm just trying to optimize.

So if he 3b's, I'm pretty much assuming the worst made hand he has is a set, which I have <45% equity against. So basically, once we c/r (say, $1.50), we'd have to commit the remaining $8.72 of our stack just to get a 45% shot at $12.22. It would take a fair amount of two pairs and spade draws in his 3b'ing range to make up for that eV difference.

And even if he has enough to justify continuing to his 3b'ing range, we went through all that just to get to a ~0eV spot.

I don't know if I'm thinking through this spot the wrong way, though, and solely focusing on how to not get in a tough spot, but it truly does seem silly to turn this hand into a c/r/f, doesn't it?

[JayneCobbsHat]

Well, I know that villain 3b'ing will be a fairly rare scenario given how wide his range is, so I know c/r'ing is +eV. I'm fairly confident that no matter what I do, I'll turn a profit, though, so I'm just trying to optimize.

So if he 3b's, I'm pretty much assuming the worst made hand he has is a set, which I have <45% equity against. So basically, once we c/r (say, $1.50), we'd have to commit the remaining $8.72 of our stack just to get a 45% shot at $12.22. It would take a fair amount of two pairs and spade draws in his 3b'ing range to make up for that eV difference.

And even if he has enough to justify continuing to his 3b'ing range, we went through all that just to get to a ~0eV spot.

I don't know if I'm thinking through this spot the wrong way, though, and solely focusing on how to not get in a tough spot, but it truly does seem silly to turn this hand into a c/r/f, doesn't it?

Why are you assuming that,there are plenty of villains who will 3bet JJ-AA here,even if he's very tight and only 3bets AA,KK,sets and 2 pair you're still ahead

Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA,KK,77,55,44,7x5x,7x4x,5x4x 43.69% 11,006 478
6s4s 56.31% 14,256 478

Then there's the times he calls with overpairs and flush draws which you also get value from.
The main reason I'd check raise is because I want to get as much money as possible in while my equity is good,our equity drops like a stone on the turn if you don't improve and any card that improves you except a 4 is also very scary so you're unlikely to get action unless you're behind.

[kickass]

I'm confused. We flop the world whats the problem? The way I see it if villain has a set or a straight we're doing fine, that's the top of his range and getting it in vs that is fine but when villain makes mistakes with flush/straight draws, tp, overpairs or air we're printing monies. why would we care about how ev getting it in vs the top of his range when his range is gonna be so much wider. Am I missing yr point?

[surviva316]

I don't have a point. I know I ginned the flop, I'm just wondering about the best plan for how to continue.

I'm really not so sure everything's just gonna work out fine and gravy if I get 3b though, but I do understand it's 30 hand combos out of pretty much ATC, so it won't happen much. So is that two votes for c/r?

[OngBonga]

What kickass says. I'm more than happy to get stacks in on this flop, we have huge equity and surely some fold equity, plus dead money, plus we're ahead of some of his stacking range, like nfd. I like to c/r this and I really want him to 3bet.

[bjsaust]

I think you're underestimating how much equity you have against any hand, not to mention his range for raising on the button. I c/r and don't blink about getting it in (I'm also really happy if he just folds though).

I suspect you're also underestimating a TAGs bluffing range if he 3bets you on the flop.

[OngBonga]

fwiw I also c/r nfd, fd+overs, sets, nuts, 66, 88-99, basically everything I don't fold.