10NL: Combo Draw + Pair OOP in ATS

Originally Posted by surviva316

-c/r: This play seems really bad because once he 3b's, he has nothing that will fold to a shove and i have ~45% against his 3b'ing range, so shoving over him is bad. c/r/c'ing is obviously dumb, so that leaves c/r/f'ing which just sounds like a great way for him to win a medium pot 100% of the time he has sets+ (as opposed to losing a big pot about half the time if I play it a different way).

Why do you take it for granted that villain will 3-bet? Villain has stolen 100% from the button, and this is a button raise. I should expect you have some fold equity here. Even if villain does 3-bet the flop, you have a ton of equity and all that money in the pot giving you great odds to at least call or CiB if not ship it.
How can you even think of folding OESFD on the flop as +EV?

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Why do you take it for granted that villain will 3-bet? Villain has stolen 100% from the button, and this is a button raise. I should expect you have some fold equity here. Even if villain does 3-bet the flop, you have a ton of equity and all that money in the pot giving you great odds to at least call or CiB if not ship it.
How can you even think of folding OESFD on the flop as +EV?

Well, I know that villain 3b'ing will be a fairly rare scenario given how wide his range is, so I know c/r'ing is +eV. I'm fairly confident that no matter what I do, I'll turn a profit, though, so I'm just trying to optimize.

So if he 3b's, I'm pretty much assuming the worst made hand he has is a set, which I have <45% equity against. So basically, once we c/r (say, $1.50), we'd have to commit the remaining $8.72 of our stack just to get a 45% shot at $12.22. It would take a fair amount of two pairs and spade draws in his 3b'ing range to make up for that eV difference.

And even if he has enough to justify continuing to his 3b'ing range, we went through all that just to get to a ~0eV spot.

I don't know if I'm thinking through this spot the wrong way, though, and solely focusing on how to not get in a tough spot, but it truly does seem silly to turn this hand into a c/r/f, doesn't it?

Originally Posted by surviva316

Well, I know that villain 3b'ing will be a fairly rare scenario given how wide his range is, so I know c/r'ing is +eV. I'm fairly confident that no matter what I do, I'll turn a profit, though, so I'm just trying to optimize.

So if he 3b's, I'm pretty much assuming the worst made hand he has is a set, which I have <45% equity against. So basically, once we c/r (say, $1.50), we'd have to commit the remaining $8.72 of our stack just to get a 45% shot at $12.22. It would take a fair amount of two pairs and spade draws in his 3b'ing range to make up for that eV difference.

And even if he has enough to justify continuing to his 3b'ing range, we went through all that just to get to a ~0eV spot.

I don't know if I'm thinking through this spot the wrong way, though, and solely focusing on how to not get in a tough spot, but it truly does seem silly to turn this hand into a c/r/f, doesn't it?

Why are you assuming that,there are plenty of villains who will 3bet JJ-AA here,even if he's very tight and only 3bets AA,KK,sets and 2 pair you're still ahead

Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA,KK,77,55,44,7x5x,7x4x,5x4x 43.69% 11,006 478
6s4s 56.31% 14,256 478

Then there's the times he calls with overpairs and flush draws which you also get value from.
The main reason I'd check raise is because I want to get as much money as possible in while my equity is good,our equity drops like a stone on the turn if you don't improve and any card that improves you except a 4 is also very scary so you're unlikely to get action unless you're behind.