3b JJ on bb facing sb back-raise 10nl

[dranger7070]

51bb in pot right now.

Villain started with 96bb, we've already put in 11bb.

96-11 = 85bb.

85bb + 85bb + 51bb = 221bb

85/(85 + 51) = 38.5% equity.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.919% 59.71% 00.21% 28628530 99439.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.081% 39.87% 00.21% 19117104 99439.00 { JdJh }


Throw in any QQ, any spazz and any AQ and it seems like a shove on my end.

[BorisTheSpider]

51bb in pot right now.

Villain started with 96bb, we've already put in 11bb.

I checked it again, After he calls the $1.10 raise, there's 26bb in the pot (our 11bb raise, his call, 4bb of dead money from the SB) with 85 behind, so if we get it in with him the pot is 196bb (26 + 2x85), so we definitely need 44% equity as a bare minimum.

We'd just break-even (ignoring rake) if we shoved and were always called against JJ+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+. I wouldn't want to take the variance without some kind of edge, so if we do discount AA/KK/AK then we'd be exactly flipping with QQ-JJ,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo which just seems too wide to me.

Ima foldin'

[tiltingdonkey]

You misread it Boris. SB raised to 36bb, so that's 36bb + 11bb + 4bb = 51bb in the pot already, as doctor said.

In game I'm pretty sure I'm folding this, but given the math, well, I like shoving.

[BorisTheSpider]

You misread it Boris. SB raised to 36bb, so that's 36bb + 11bb + 4bb = 51bb in the pot already, as doctor said.

In game I'm pretty sure I'm folding this, but given the math, well, I like shoving.

Yeah, sure, he hasn't just called but has also raised, but that doesn't change what the pot will be in total if we get it all-in.

Look at it this way - if all the money goes in the pot is our/SBs effective stacks when we started the hand (96bb x2) + the 4bb of dead money from the button.

The pot if we shove and get called is definitely 196bb, and we definitely have to risk 85bb to play that pot.

[Imthenewfish]

Yeah, sure, he hasn't just called but has also raised, but that doesn't change what the pot will be in total if we get it all-in.

Look at it this way - if all the money goes in the pot is our/SBs effective stacks when we started the hand (96bb x2) + the 4bb of dead money from the button.

The pot if we shove and get called is definitely 196bb, and we definitely have to risk 85bb to play that pot.

if you have 72o and you cold 4b to 98bb, should you fold to a shove? why? sure, overall it might be a bad play, but the problem lies in the cold 4 bet, not the decision to call after they shove.

(I'm not saying the initial 3b is bad in this hand)