[Hand of the Week by donkbee] Week 1 - AJ in MP with 20 BBs (Part 3 Released!)

[baudib]

AJo is not a good hand postflop 20bb deep. It's so easy for someone to just flop anything and get us to fold basically. A hand like 97s is doing REALLY well v us pre-flop and they are getting amazing pot odds. If he is is going to be defending 20%(and most of this consists of 3bing) v a 2.5x but defending 30% v a 2x. We want to be 2.5xing. BB can basically defend a tonne and c/f a tonne if we are minraising.

If you don't understand this I believe you probably are not defending your BB enough in shortstack situations(edit: In any situation probably). Folding like 97o is a pretty huge mistake v a super wide btn steal range(60%) if it's a minraise. People used to say oh you shouldn't defend if you are going to be just c/f a tonne cause it's lighting money on fire but this is just a retarded bullshit way to reduce variance in the short term as any edge we gain decreases it in the long term. Basically filter for hands you are flatting in the BB at the moment. Remember anything > -1bb is a huge huge success. If you are doing much better then this at the moment with your flatting range v steals then you should add in another teir of hands.

I understand that we're not flopping anything most of the time but surely vs. a wide defending range we're doing fine.

Is the extra fold equity gained offset by the fact that we're playing against a stronger range when they call? Surely we'd rather have them call with A7o and JTo than fold those hands?

[Icanhastreebet]

I understand that we're not flopping anything most of the time but surely vs. a wide defending range we're doing fine.

Is the extra fold equity gained offset by the fact that we're playing against a stronger range when they call? Surely we'd rather have them call with A7o and JTo than fold those hands?

Who do you think is playing more incorrectly. The guy shove/folding v a 2.5x with 20% of his range when we have AJo or the guy flatting 10% and shoving 20% v a 2x when we have AJo. Also in this situation I think flatting A7o is quite terrible based on positions and how atrocious A7o flops v the opening range we have here. However if they are flatting crappy Ax when we minraise then yes ofcourse we should be minraising because they will have a difficult time offsetting the disadvantage of having crappy Ax OOP pre-flop. They should really be 3b or folding a hand like this v our opening range. Hands that should be flatting are hands we will NOT besides some combos of Jx.

Answer that and you should your answer.

I'm not saying this 100% black and white but this is the closest to correct I can come up with. If someone can come up with a really good argument for playing it differently then I would love to hear it.

edit: About this being 100% black and white. I mean in HU poker 9bb-15bb situations are SO unsolved that is going to be impossible to know what is 100% right. Now if you take this statement and apply it to a situation like this where everyone has say an M of 10 in a donkament the situations are going to be impossible to solve. The big problem with how most people learn short stack poker(M < 10) is everyone learns how to shove/fold and stops right there. There is SO many possiblities when stacks get to this depth.

Once again I will state you should look at decisions based on what is most +eV, not what is +eV as I think this is the most important thing for everyone to come out of this thread with.