Flopped straight vs river shove 25nl

[daviddem]

ainec = and it's not even close... tried to add it to the urban dictionary a while ago and it got deleted later, not sure why.

Far more quads, full house and better straights than trips, two pairs or same straight in his river shoving range imo (count combos).

[rpm]

Far more quads, full house and better straights than trips, two pairs or same straight in his river shoving range imo (count combos).

88 (1), 99 (3), TT (3), QJs (4), 98s (1)

that's 12 combos, and the maximum amount i can think of in his preflop range that beat us on the river. getting 3:1 we need 25% equity. or put another way, we need to win 1/4. put another way we need him to have 4 or more combos we beat if the maximum # of combos we can think that beat us in his range is 12. take your pick from

JJ (6), QQ (6), KK (6), AA (6) T9s (2), AT (12), KTs (3), QTs (3), JTs (3), AJ (16), KJ (16)

granted some of these may not be in his range. but i definitely think some would. imo his line makes more sense for these weak-ish one pair hands and/or bluffs than nut hands. for example why would he C/C any of 88-TT on this flop when there are so many OESD's, pair/OESD's, and two-pair hands? some of which have decent equity against him? why would he C/C QJs on this turn? i think those "nut" combos should be discounted to at least some degree due to the wetness of the board texture and their resultant vulnerability