Bah, ty rpm was going to mention something similar.

Daviddem, I'll even use your '6 combos we lose to, 3 combos we beat' range that you posted above:

6:3 = 3/9 = 33% we have vs this range.

So we need to be getting 2:1 on our money or better, since he shoved for 1/2 pot, we're already getting more than enough pot odds with this seriously hamstrung range you posted.

We need 11.02/(33.37 + 11.02) = 24.8% is how much equity we need to have in order to call this river shove in order to breakeven.

Lets do a quick EV calc to see how much calling here is netting us in EV:

67% of the time we call and lose $11.02 = .67*11.02 = $7.38
33% of the time we call and win $44.39 = .33*44.39 = $14.67

$14.67 - $7.38 = $7.29 you would be missing out on PER CALL with the range you posted.

With me or rpm's range, this is only going to increase.

So when you say you want to fold here, you're basically just taking (at least) 29bb's and handing it to your opponent saying you don't want it.

I'm not trying to make you feel bad here or anything by rubbing your nose in it, I'm trying to help you see the error of your thinking. Yes, given your range, villain has us crushed here 2:1, but given the pot odds and the fact that we close the action this absolutely has to be a snapcall because thats the worst case scenario and I'm convinced that we have much much better equity than 33% here.