Optimal EV edges

[Fielmann]

but its not necessarily one or the other just because you take one +EV doesn't mean your have to give up another.

You have to give up the future positive gamble if in the first one you get eliminated from the tournament. (Or crippled, in which case the subsequent chance for a double-up won't be as helpful as it would have been.)

Seems situations change to much to realistically determine whether a better EV spot will come.

We obviously can't determine whether it'll come or not, but I believe the chance of it can be estimated. Then we could model the EV-of-folding-now-then-playing-one-orbit with the assumption that opponents' stack sizes, players' tendencies, etc. don't change. In the long run the positive events (big stacks clashing, neighbours tightening up, etc.) and the negative events (shorties doubling up, neighbours loosening up, etc.) should cancel each other out, no?

[Fielmann]

In the long run the positive events (big stacks clashing, neighbours tightening up, etc.) and the negative events (shorties doubling up, neighbours loosening up, etc.) should cancel each other out, no?

No, not necessarily. There are definitely situations where such parametres have a lot of room to go worse and little room to go better, and vice versa. (Yup, that's morning me arguing with the evening me.)

One would think that the +EV for waiting at the 5.50 is huge due to the mistakes many players are making at this level. While the EV for waiting at the 110 level is probably [smaller] - due to few mistakes made by players at that level

So my theory is: As buy in increases the EV for waiting to push premium +EV cards decreases.

As a general rule, yes. There are exceptions though. For instance if there's a maniac on your left who's calling very wide, then he's making mistakes, but his mistakes hurt you too, because your shoving opportunities will be rarer and less profitable.