Optimal EV edges

[fulksy]

i think the reason you have to take any +EV edge is that the spot where you might have greater EV might not come. It doesn't seem like a great idea to give up a +EV play for just the chance to find a spot with more EV

[Fielmann]

i think the reason you have to take any +EV edge is that the spot where you might have greater EV might not come. It doesn't seem like a great idea to give up a +EV play for just the chance to find a spot with more EV

Depends on the numbers.

Let's way you have an unreplenishable bankroll of 100. I offer you to toss a coin for 100, if you win you get 110. I also promise that if the weather is nice tomorrow (and there's a 80% chance it is) then I'll make the same proposal tomorrow, except that you'll get 200 if you win.

If you accept the today's bet, then:
50% chance to end up with 0 today, in which case you won't be able to make the bet tomorrow.
50% * 20% = 10% chance to end up with 210 today, and tomorrow it rains, so 210 remains.
50% * 80% * 50% = 20% chance to win today but lose tomorrow, 110 remains.
50% * 80% * 50% = 20% chance to win today, win tomorrow, 410 remains.

Total EV = 0.5*0 + 0.1*210 + 0.2*110 + 0.2*410 = 125

If you pass up on today's bet, then:
20% chance that it'll rain tomorrow, 100 remains
80% * 50% = 40% chance you lose, 0 remains
80% * 50% = 40% chance you win, 300 remains

Total EV = 0.2*100 + 0.4*0 + 0.4*300 = 140

So waiting is better.