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CO Steal Vs Sb Steal

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  1. #10
    grnydrowave2's Avatar
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    Short answer: SB by a mile. You have way more fold equity.

    Long answer: You're obviously going to open all the same stuff that you open in EP/MP from CO/BU/SB. The remainder of hands you open with will be marginal hands that have little value postflop. Most of the value comes from preflop fold equity.

    Suppose you're in the CO with Q8o. The three opponents to your left are massive nits that fold 87% of the time. If you raise 3x, you need to take down the blinds 66% of the time for this to be a break even play. In this situation, all 3 of your opponents will fold 65.8%. It's not a positive EV play in terms of pure preflop fold equity, but it's very close, and you can squeeze a little bit of value out of the hand postflop (in the long run). So it's probably a good spot to raise.

    However, if you make the same sized raise with the same hand against the same opponents from the Button, you will take down the blinds 75.7% of the time. Now you're printing money. You can auto-fold every time you get called and the move is still +EV purely by preflop fold equity.

    Obviously, it's even more valuable from the SB. Your opponent folds 87% of the time. You should be raising any two cards against an opponents like this until they adjust. And guys who fold that much from the blinds often suck at adjusting.

    EDIT: Now consider how wide you might consider opening from all three positions if the opponents to your left fold 70% instead.
    Last edited by grnydrowave2; 02-06-2011 at 04:32 PM.

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