***2010 CHRISTMAS WEREWOLF***

[wufwugy]

Yeah, there's no upside to keeping it a secret from the Village when the Wolves are in the know. Study my soulread game when I was the Angel.

Are there any particular posts you could link me in that game?

[wufwugy]

The vig should wait until he has good reasons to kill. Otherwise he's really just another wolf with a mild chance at hitting a wolf. Seriously, think about that. Without good reads, the vig is as likely to hit the seer as the Santy, and much more likely to hit a villager than a wolf. If we wait until a wolf is gat, the vig will see more clearly, and even the village can help figure out who the vig should kill

Losing the vig early and losing saved up bullets isn't as big of a deal as people may think since the vig is only capable of doing some real good when there is good enough info when the game is in a more progressed state

Also, don't confuse this to saying I think the vig must wait until a wolf is gat. That would just be a default strategy. If the vig thinks he's got a good idea I'd like him to go for it if for no other reason than that's the way the game is supposed to be played

[GatorJH]

just look at the havoc bigred wreaked on the village last game and you will understand why the Vig should not just randomly shoot.

Sticking with my kingnat vote unless someone can give me a good reason not to.

[Donachello]

Since Gator is the only one we can really trust to have the village's best interests at heart (assuming his angel claim is true and I believe it to be). I'm willing to follow him on this one but I'll wait to bold kingnat until I see a defense post since I assume a wolf would be posting one ASAP.

[DropTheBanana]

I'm going to go with my gut feeling and lynch StillDeadMoney

[TLR]

It seems to be between XTR and kingmat

Out of the two I think I prefer a lynch kingmat
also resync Carroters

As far as the vig goes we have to trust his/her judgement, if I was the vig I would hold bullets until we have more info

[StillDeadMoney]

DTB you have been bolding me for days. I would like to see an actual analysis post; otherwise, the vig should blow your brains out because your blind lynch votes are very suspicious.

[wufwugy]

I'm okay with a kingnat lynch because it will get him out of the way and show he's a villager. I've been over him more than anybody, but I can't imagine he's anything other than an unenthused villager at this point. Playing like him as a wolf is just dumb because he'll get spotted in the late game so easily

I think XTR is also a villager

My wolves right now are

SDM, TLR, and the JVP. I think if people don't care about kingnat then SDM becomes the correct lynch of the day. Most of what he says disagrees with what I think, he fits my hypothetical profile for what I think baddy teams may strategize as a more active wolf, and looking at who and how he's been bolded, I don't think there are that many wolves in there.

I've thought the JVP was the recruit for a while now. It could be several posters, but I think he's the best candidate. Also, Carroters bolded him early today and NOTHING happened. That could mean that nobody wants to attack JV, that the wolves aren't looking for a battle, but it definitely means that he could be a wolf since no wolves are jumping on him and that's exactly what they would do at the early stages of a strong wolf being targeted

I have the same reasons for TLR, but not as deeply since I bolded him after several others already cast their votes for the day. But still, nobody has jumped in TLR after I made a case that I expected to get at least one or two people going. Again, this could mean many things, and one of them is that the wolves have definitely not hopped on one of their own.

Rescind TLR, rescind XTR because I forgot earlier, lynch SDM. But I think a kingnat lynch is okay, but I'm not bolding him because I think he's a villager by this point

[wufwugy]

DTB you have been bolding me for days. I would like to see an actual analysis post; otherwise, the vig should blow your brains out because your blind lynch votes are very suspicious.

Seriously, how do we not lynch you? Maybe not today, but it's gotta come later. You're either a villager who doesn't pay too much attention or a baddy blowing smoke. You know full well why DTB has been bolding you. He made what he thinks is a soulread several days ago, and hasn't left it.

Then you see that you were bolded by guys like Gator and Boog, and the list of potential wolves bolding you drops. In fact, I have virtually everybody who has bolded you so far on the more likely villager side.

SDM could be our break.

[Warpe]

Are there any particular posts you could link me in that game?

It's a strat thing. If you're the Angel and you're out you have a lot of power to stir shit up.

[DropTheBanana]

DTB you have been bolding me for days. I would like to see an actual analysis post; otherwise, the vig should blow your brains out because your blind lynch votes are very suspicious.

YouTube - Billy Madison - Insanely Idiotic (Academic Decathalon)

[StillDeadMoney]

Fine, go ahead and lynch me if you want to lose the game so badly.

[StillDeadMoney]

Oh by the way nice defense post DTB, I'm gonna shoot you tonight. Don't forget to put your mouth on the barrel.

[StillDeadMoney]

Seriously, how do we not lynch you? Maybe not today, but it's gotta come later. You're either a villager who doesn't pay too much attention or a baddy blowing smoke. You know full well why DTB has been bolding you. He made what he thinks is a soulread several days ago, and hasn't left it.

Then you see that you were bolded by guys like Gator and Boog, and the list of potential wolves bolding you drops. In fact, I have virtually everybody who has bolded you so far on the more likely villager side.

SDM could be our break.

I'll use you for my next bullet.

[wufwugy]

You do realize you just needlessly committed suicide?

[StillDeadMoney]

You do realize you just needlessly committed suicide?

I was dead anyway.

If I don't out myself, you people lynch me (again, I asked for a reason... nothing intelligent ever came up, yet here I am. Still ready to be lynched).

I do out myself, I get nommed.

I was dead by the end of tomorrow anyway. I may as well shoot someone who has a high probability of being a wolf (i.e. someone who bolds lynches on me for no reason).

[DropTheBanana]

Goddammit

rescind StillDeadMoney

[JKDS]

YouTube - 'ello, what's all this then?

[wufwugy]

I may as well shoot someone who has a high probability of being a wolf (i.e. someone who bolds lynches on me for no reason).

Dude, this is why you're getting bolded. You're doing things like claiming no reason when the person has ample reason. DTB's reasons may be wrong, but he has explained himself. Then when you claim that he's not given any reasons, it makes you look so suspicious

I honestly have trouble even believing you, and think this could be a baddy hail mary to try to out a newb vig. That's how little sense it makes to claim to be a vig regardless of the truth

Also, If I had the option, I'd lynch the vig on the first day of every game. Statistically, vigs are unwitting, closet wolves unless the only thing they do is shoot based on seer lookups and an outed angel, but even then it doesn't really matter. Vigs kill way more villagers than they do wolves, and almost any time you're shooting based on something other than known probability, it's simply in the dark and hits a villager most of the time. Not to mention that the shots give little information compared to lynches or eats, and the vig actually has a negative impact on the village

And now I don't know what to do. If you're the vig and you live you're gonna shoot a couple villagers, one of whom you say is me. Fantastic. But could I get away with still getting the vig lynched in order to keep him from shooting me? Doubtful

rescind SDM

[jackvance]

Wuf, the vig is a great asset to the village. Think of it this way. For every lynch we do, we lose a guaranteed villager. The vig shot is a "free lynch" with no villager-loss. (and the odds of getting a wol are similar to a lynch) So I'm still of the opinion the vig has to shoot every chance he gets. Saving bullets would only make sense if we had a guarantee the vig can survive long enoug. The catch is though that a vig shooting randomly is not good.. you have to hope the vig knows to pick decent target that have a good chance of being wolves or give out lots of information anyway.

Oh, and just for the record, I didn't get recruited.

[jackvance]

Damn so many typos and I can't edit. Still very hung-over. Going to sleep now.

[Hoopy]

I guess rescind SDM and lynch kingnat

If SDM isn't the vig the real vig should obviously shoot him.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, the vig is a great asset to the village. Think of it this way. For every lynch we do, we lose a guaranteed villager. The vig shot is a "free lynch" with no villager-loss. (and the odds of getting a wol are similar to a lynch) So I'm still of the opinion the vig has to shoot every chance he gets. Saving bullets would only make sense if we had a guarantee the vig can survive long enoug. The catch is though that a vig shooting randomly is not good.. you have to hope the vig knows to pick decent target that have a good chance of being wolves or give out lots of information anyway.

Oh, and just for the record, I didn't get recruited.

Actually, I think it's the opposite. Vig shots are not necessarily a statistical improvement because the wolves are less likely to be on a vig's radar than villagers simply due to the information they have and how they manipulate it.

Half of the key to the game is for the village to decipher lynchings. When the vig offs players without the wolves having to put themselves out there, the village is hurt quite a bit IMO.

And I think any time the vig shoots correctly based on seer/angel stuff all it does is just speed up the inevitable outcome

The only time I think a vig is of actual value to the village is when it's a great player who's good at deciphering real suspicion instead of faux suspicion


Also, your rationale contradicts itself. If the vig has statistical value in the way you say, it would mean that randomly shooting is actually plus ev.

[StillDeadMoney]

Dude, this is why you're getting bolded. You're doing things like claiming no reason when the person has ample reason. DTB's reasons may be wrong, but he has explained himself. Then when you claim that he's not given any reasons, it makes you look so suspicious

I didn't see a point-by-point rebuttal. What we got was a few posts saying "a lot of people are suspicious, but he never seems to get a lynch train going on him". Since my vote got really close with kingnat I had no choice but to out myself and get off one more shot.

Also, If I had the option, I'd lynch the vig on the first day of every game. Statistically, vigs are unwitting, closet wolves unless the only thing they do is shoot based on seer lookups and an outed angel

Let's look at the statistics.

Every day, the village picks someone to hang and the wolves eat. Two people leave the village every day: one person on the villager team, and one wolf or villager. Hence, only one half of the people that are eliminated in the game every day have a chance of being a wolf. In a purely random scenario (villagers hang randomly) with just villagers and wolves, long games tend to favor the wolves because they get to thin out the village at least as fast as the village can get rid of the wolves.

If you add in a vigilante that shoots randomly, every second day (or however often he gets to shoot) there is another random chance either a wolf or a villager gets removed, which lessens the amount of days in the game (and thus, less free passes to the wolves to eat villagers). In a game with no seer and no angel where everyone behaves randomly, it is a mathematically optimal strategy for the vigilante to shoot as often as possible.

The angel has been outed (GatorJH) and the seer is incognito. I can hope for one of two things: either the wolves play poorly enough so that the village can figure things out, or the seer comes out late in the game and outs at least a few wolves. I don't think either have too good a chance of happening in this case. We haven't had one majority lynch yet and most people are keeping as quiet as possible.

There are 22 people in the village. I am the vig and obviously won't shoot myself, so I have a 6 in 21 chance of hitting a wolf. That's about 29%, assuming I do it randomly. That's a pretty decent chance.

Not to mention that the shots give little information compared to lynches or eats, and the vig actually has a negative impact on the village

If the wolves play perfectly, there is no "information" to be had at all. I was not convinced of the BooG lynch and the kingnat lynch will probably end up with him being another villager.

[wufwugy]

Every day, the village picks someone to hang and the wolves eat. Two people leave the village every day: one person on the villager team, and one wolf or villager. Hence, only one half of the people that are eliminated in the game every day have a chance of being a wolf. In a purely random scenario (villagers hang randomly) with just villagers and wolves, long games tend to favor the wolves because they get to thin out the village at least as fast as the village can get rid of the wolves.

If you add in a vigilante that shoots randomly, every second day (or however often he gets to shoot) there is another random chance either a wolf or a villager gets removed, which lessens the amount of days in the game (and thus, less free passes to the wolves to eat villagers). In a game with no seer and no angel where everyone behaves randomly, it is a mathematically optimal strategy for the vigilante to shoot as often as possible.

The angel has been outed (GatorJH) and the seer is incognito. I can hope for one of two things: either the wolves play poorly enough so that the village can figure things out, or the seer comes out late in the game and outs at least a few wolves. I don't think either have too good a chance of happening in this case. We haven't had one majority lynch yet and most people are keeping as quiet as possible.

There are 22 people in the village. I am the vig and obviously won't shoot myself, so I have a 6 in 21 chance of hitting a wolf. That's about 29%, assuming I do it randomly. That's a pretty decent chance.

Yeah, I'm seeing that. I don't, however, think it nullifies the negatives. For example, to win, the village has to kill all the wolves, not just some. That factor alone throws a monkey wrench into those preliminary statistics and largely voids them. If the vig kills hurt enough of the information gathering that would reveal the remaining wolves then the vig would end up being a boon to the wolves

Also, you have to factor in things like the probability of the vig accidentally killing the seer. which I think is a huge statistical negative. There are probably some strategies the vig could use that are good though. Like if the vig waits until the seer is out to unload then I think the statistics become favorable enough as to nullify the negatives

Anyways, this is neither here nor there, and it probably just makes it sound like I'm trying to convince you to not shoot tonight

[fulksy]

well should we at least come to some consensus on who the village would like to shoot at least it will be like getting two lynches. i still have XTR voted, but to me XTR and kingnat are equal and based more on them not being very active, then any definitive reasons.

seems like kingnat might be more of an disinterested villager since his BW is taking off and we haven't heard a defense post.

[supa]

Gawd I hope SDM is a wolf and gets his head blown off tonite, Rescind SDM

Following gators lead, Lynch Kingnat

[StillDeadMoney]

Also, you have to factor in things like the probability of the vig accidentally killing the seer. which I think is a huge statistical negative.

You never know for sure of somebody's role until after they die, or after the game ends. Though I agree that some plays are more credible than others.

Take, for example, Gator's claim of being the angel. Is he really? Everyone basically has to take his word for it. Assuming the real angel always protects themselves, anytime a wolf gets blocked from eating, Gator can shrug his arms and say "well looks like they thought they would try to level me". Since someone is claiming to be an angel, it's unlikely the seer would come out and expose some wolves even if they do find some. If the seer outs the real angel, he dies, and trading off the seer for a wolf is not a terrible deal for the wolves in my opinion. Would the wolves ever try something like this? Probably not; I merely wanted to illustrate that you can't really trust anyone in this game besides yourself.

[GatorJH]

SDM, you are a moron. There is absolutely NO GOOD reason to out yourself as the seer today. You would have been better off waiting until you were sure the village was going to lynch you.

[Warpe]

SDM, you are a moron. There is absolutely NO GOOD reason to out yourself as the VIG today. You would have been better off waiting until you were sure the village was going to lynch you.

FTFY Let's be clear, he's claiming to be the vig. A seer claim is whole different ball of wax. I'm going to assume that if SDM is a false vig then he's getting shot tonight, and if he's the real vig then he's getting eaten, so either way he's dead.

[StillDeadMoney]

FTFY Let's be clear, he's claiming to be the vig. A seer claim is whole different ball of wax. I'm going to assume that if SDM is a false vig then he's getting shot tonight, and if he's the real vig then he's getting eaten, so either way he's dead.

I think Gator was joking.

[StillDeadMoney]

Wolves also risk wasting their nom if they eat me and the vig shoots me.

[GatorJH]

Wolves also risk wasting their nom if they eat me and the vig shoots me.

Or you could view it as the Vig wasting a bullet. In any case, if you aren't the vig or a wolf our only shot at a wolf today/tonight is via a lynch.

It just wasn't a smart move imo.

[GatorJH]

FWIW, kingnat posted in the Community Forum this morning (so he has been around today) and yet has decided to NOT make a defense post so he has either lost interest in the game or the wolves have decided to employ the "we shouldn't lynch him until he has a chance to defend himself" strategy.

[JKDS]

good enough for me. i never really saw anything wrong with kingnat, but ive been wrong plenty of times in the last 13 pages.

Angel says so+ ignoring thread = vote imo

rescind hoopy, lynch kingnat

I would love if sdm shot hoopy

[wufwugy]

or the wolves have decided to employ the "we shouldn't lynch him until he has a chance to defend himself" strategy.

I hope so. That means they're dumb and they will lose hard after the first wolf falls.

There is no way kingnat is a wolf now. Him saying "am I dead yet" and not defending himself is just not something a wolf does. He's just an unenthused villager. If somehow this was a wolf strategy though, I'm gonna laugh because that's some awesomely bad strategy


My recommendations for the vig kills: after kingnat is shown to be a villager, unload on some of those who lynched him. I think there's some wolves in there. Since it seems all youse girly men are scared of livin on the edge and making recommendations (except one by JKDS), I'll go ahead and say I like TLR, Hoopy, and supa.

[supa]

Since it seems all youse girly men are scared of livin on the edge and making recommendations (except one by JKDS), I'll go ahead and say I like TLR, Hoopy, and supa.

Pretty funny statement coming from someone who's scared to come out of the closet.

I can't speak for the others but, yeah, I'm playing it safe by following the one confirmed villager that happens to be a respected vet of the game. That's how I choose to play the game. If the vig wants to shoot me based on my following the angels advice then so be it.

[wufwugy]

Did you just call me gay?

[philly and the phanatics]

wow 2011 is crazy....

i agree with wuf at this point about KN surely hes not gone the entire day without defending himself (even though he was on the site) ....but w/e its probably too late to get anything going on anyone else, and the only other person with votes (xtr) seems like a bad option as well given the way JV has spoke about him and the fact that DC said he didnt defend himself this way as a wolf last time (could be level 0 thinking by me though).

If SDM is not the vigilante please stay quiet real vig and just shoot him ldo. As for who to shoot, i like some of wufs choices (aside from hoopy, im getting the villager vibe from him tbh)... DTB is also a decent shot, all of his posts are just fixated on SDM he doesnt even address any of the action going on at the time. And i guess i would not mind shooting Big Red or 3bet.


also happy new years village

[philly and the phanatics]

didnt make it clear, im still pushing for a roid lynch and thing thats the best potential "santa claws" out there, he's much better target than the other 2 on the table.

[supa]

Did you just call me gay?

Um...kinda...yeah

[wufwugy]

Um...kinda...yeah

Why

[supa]

Overcompensation.

[wufwugy]

Wow, you're fucking brilliant

I'm totally gay BTW. Suck dick every day. I love it when they squirt their cream all over my man boobs

[DropTheBanana]

but w/e its probably too late to get anything going on anyone else

DTB is also a decent shot

These two statements are incorrect.

If we miss a lynch/lose the vig/ and SDM takes a personal vendetta against me as his last shot we close the villager/wolf gap to barely over 2:1

We have to quit voting for people just for the sake of ending the day. If you don't believe that "x" should die then don't vote for them. I realize I'm guilty of doing this but it's crunch time and we're just failing left and right, probably while the wolves kick back and let us keep digging ourselves in deeper.

Roid_Rage is the only one that makes sense to me to bold atm (the way my luck is going, he's probably the seer)

lynch Roid_Rage

[TLR]

If SDM is really the vig he should probably use his bullets as long as he is alive.

BTW I dont think it was neccessary to come out as vig right now, it did not seem like you are going to get lynched today and since there was some heat on you the wolves would probably not nom you either, as it stands you have just put Gator in a tough spot since he has to decide if he believes you are the vig and then play coinflip with the wolves.

I think the shot should be used to take out on of the quieter players who we have no way of knowing if they are wolves playing UTR or disinterested villagers who post just enough not to get modkilled, and as we get into late game it makes the decision harder (less villagers, less room for error), Gala and WBF both fit the mold.

[rong]

ughhh, long read, and it looks like kingnat is dead, but fwiw since I last posted philly seems the most wolfy to me from a quick read.

Vig shoot Philly!

And @ Roid, I can't be assed to make a complete reply to your post other than your posts indicate you haven't read the thread yet try to lead based on incorrect info, which makes you either a wolf or an idiot, and either way lynching you is good for the vilager, so Vig, maybe shoot roid if you don't like a philly shot. But don't just shoot someone based on a personal vendetta, its stupid, spoils the game a bit and will make you first lynch on every game you play from now on.

[Carroters]

I think we should take a good look at everyone that's been mindlessly targetting SDM throughout this game if he turns out to be the vig (and I think it's pretty likely that he is the realvig based on my read he's just not been wolfy on any other level than a rediculously eratic one that no wolf would take in the early game.) I think he's looked nothing like a wolf, and am therefore naturally suspicious of those who've been targeting him. Don't see the need to come out as the vig though, seems pretty damn retarded.

Also don't shoot me because I called you retarded, I'm a villager.

I think DTB is a pretty decent candidate to be a wolf right now. Also, I'm fairly down with a Roid lynch still. Guess we just have to get today over with and pray kingnat is an inactive wolf, it is becoming depressingly unlikely now that his BW is soaring and he's made no defence post.

[a500lbgorilla]

Like momma always said, if you're gonna kill something, best to have that something be kingnat, a regular villager. Momma wasn't very bright.



It's NIGHT 4

ANGEL, SEER, VIG, AND SANTA CLAUSE PM LOLZ (as he said he would return Sunday, and by god it is Sunday)





The Village of Grundle
StillDeadMoney
GatorJH
Icanhastreebet
Warpe
Carroters
jackvance
supahaole
wufwugy
JKDS
TLR
bigred
DanAronG
HoopyDude
fulksy
DropTheBanana
Donachello
XTR1000
philly and the fanatics
Galapogos
WillburForce
Roid_Rage

The Departed
a500lbgorilla - killed on NIGHT 1
kfaess - Hanged on DAY 1
Keith_MM - Killed by the vigilante on NIGHT 2
BooG690 - Hanged on DAY 2
kingnat - Hanged on DAY 3


There are 6 Wolves and 15 Villagers
SANTA CLAWS
5 WOLVES
12 VILLAGERS
KRIS KRINGLE
GABRIEL
JOHN MCCLANE

[lolzzz_321]

Night 4 was a terrible night for the village. John McClane the vigilante shot HoopyDude, a regular villager.

Additionally, the wolves struck a major blow when they lynched JKDS, better known as Kris Kringle, the village seer.

The village faces an uphill battle as the sun rises on DAY 4.





10 VOTES NEEDED TO LYNCH





The Village of Grundle
StillDeadMoney
GatorJH
Icanhastreebet
Warpe
Carroters
jackvance
supahaole
wufwugy
TLR
bigred
DanAronG
fulksy
DropTheBanana
Donachello
XTR1000
philly and the fanatics
Galapogos
WillburForce
Roid_Rage

The Departed
a500lbgorilla - killed on NIGHT 1
kfaess - Hanged on DAY 1
Keith_MM - Killed by the vigilante on NIGHT 2
BooG690 - Hanged on DAY 2
kingnat - Hanged on DAY 3
HoopyDude - Killed on NIGHT 3
JKDS - Killed on NIGHT 3


There are 6 Wolves and 13 Villagers
SANTA CLAWS
5 WOLVES
11 VILLAGERS
GABRIEL
JOHN MCCLANE

[StillDeadMoney]

I think I'll follow the wolf strategy next game. Post an absolute minimum not to get modkilled, never form any bandwagons, and sleep my way to victory.

[Warpe]

Okay, I think it was fairly obvious that JKDS was a special by the way he was playing so I like a lynch of anyone who tried to get him strung up.

Lynch XTR1000 pls.

[TLR]

I think I'll follow the wolf strategy next game. Post an absolute minimum not to get modkilled, never form any bandwagons, and sleep my way to victory.

yeah, you may want to add not shooting villagers to this game plan

[wufwugy]

Well, I'm mad. I knew JKDS was one of the good guys. We should look at fulksy again

If I stick to the logic I used to consider JKDS one of the good regs who's a villager, here's everybody I want lynched

TLR, JV, bigred, Willbur, Gala, XTR, Dan, Don, supa, and treebet. Warpe should probably be in that list too, but I'm giving him a pass right now for some reason

lynch XTR

[TLR]

From JKDS posts I dont really see any valuable hints, I assume he has looked up Warpe and since he left no indication I am going to work under the assumpion Warpe is a likely villager.

BR and Gala are both very quiet and contribute close to zero valuable content, I doubt they are both wolves playing UTG but it is very likely one of them is, out of the two I preferto lynch Gala.
Philly is also very high on my suspect list

[supa]

Yeah, I think JKDS basically said he looked up warpe which leaves us with warpe, gator and sdm on the varified villager list. I wanna wait to hear from gator but I'll prolly be following warpes lead.

[Roid_Rage]

I go away for 3 days and this is what happens?

[StillDeadMoney]

yeah, you may want to add not shooting villagers to this game plan

wasn't me!

[StillDeadMoney]

I think WilburForce is a better lynch. He hasn't really done anything except lynch villagers and lay low the whole game... he is usually much more active (at least when I last played with him). Thoughts?

[Roid_Rage]

Most people are more active, its mostly to do with the holidays. In case you didn't notice, I was gone over New Years weekend and didnt post at all.

This isn't to say wolves can't be hiding in inactive list, but I think we need to start looking for more concrete reasons to lynch people this point.

[bigred]

So we can't get anything from JKDS' posts? I haven't had a chance to read through thread and am too lazy tonight.

Tomorrow night 'll be able to hopefully spend some time...maybe. I'm back on the road so I can't be reading FTR all day while sitting on my couch.

I'm not sure if I can consult psychic cat again since XTR is still alive. I will consult with PC tomorrow.

[Carroters]

Wow this is is a fucking mess. I've just read through much of the game and man, I'm finding it hard to pinpoint any really active or obvious wolves. I feel like many of them are probably hiding away in the shadows to an extent.

People like BR, Gala have done nothing. I honestly don't know why people like this are allowed to play. They should be mod killed imo for spamming WW with meaningless shit that allows them not to be modkilled and nothing else.

TLR seems pretty sketchy to me still. He's been kind of obsessed with lynching me because I look "all over the place and wolfy" He seems like he's not really interested in helping the vuillage and seems unconcerned and lethargic if he is a villager, thinking he probably isn't.

I think Roid, Fulsky and JV very villagery after re-reading the thread, although it's possible I'm wrong about Roid. JV does seem genuinely interested and his posts give me a sense thathe's trying to find shit out and get information, I'd missed certain posts when I last found him suspicious that aren;t really reminiscent of the wolfy JV that I've seen at all and more of a villagery JV. He also has had similar oppinions to me so far, although he hated the philly wagon I started.

Unsure about philly still, he isn't one of my top suspects just now.

I did think DTB could be wolfy, at times, but his long attack post on SDM just seems villagery in nature and yeah idk, it seems like he's enthusiastic, really wanting to be right in his theory and almost excited about it. I find him less wofly due to this post.

Okay, at leastwe have a few guys who are very likely villagers and so people we can trust.

Here's my list of who I think are villagers.

Warpe
SDM
Gator
JV
Roid
Fulsky
Dan

And top wolf suspects

TLR
Wilbur
Treebet
BR

Lynch TLR, I'll consider switching if the almost confirmed villagers have different ideas.

[wufwugy]

People like BR, Gala have done nothing. I honestly don't know why people like this are allowed to play. They should be mod killed imo for spamming WW with meaningless shit that allows them not to be modkilled and nothing else.

People like BR, Gala have done nothing. I honestly don't know why people like this are allowed to play. They should be mod killed imo for spamming WW with meaningless shit that allows them not to be modkilled and nothing else.

People like BR, Gala have done nothing. I honestly don't know why people like this are allowed to play. They should be mod killed imo for spamming WW with meaningless shit that allows them not to be modkilled and nothing else.

People like BR, Gala have done nothing. I honestly don't know why people like this are allowed to play. They should be mod killed imo for spamming WW with meaningless shit that allows them not to be modkilled and nothing else.

As for the rest of your post, I agree with most of it. I'm all over a TLR wagon if that's where people want to go, but I'm also okay with holding off on it. I'm willing to jump on anybody who has done "just enough" so far. They're all wolves. Even the ones who aren't are, as far as I'm concerned

[philly and the phanatics]

JVP, gator, yaawn and warpe seem like bad choices today. Fulksy convinced me with his last few defense posts...but i didnt see them until the thread locked, so ima back off him for awhile as well.

This is the most revealing thing i could find and it was right after he had his 3rd lookup. Also it should be noted that last game he looked up WBF/Gala as 2 of his first 3....i think the 1 person we can def take away as a confirmed villager is Warpe (and ldo gator/sdm)


Also wtf @ tlr wanting to lynch gala when he has said absolutely nothing all game (if big red is the christopher multisanti of nonposting, then gala would be soprano), it seems pretty dumb, he has like 2 posts in 14 pages. i would bet my left nut on Gala being a disinterested villager, i do not think he has even voted the last 3 rounds.

That being said i do not feel that way about Big Red and could def see him/3bet/wbf/XTR/DC/Supa (nobody is talking about him wtf?) being wolves (not all of them at once but you get the idea)

i would rather lynch TLR over XTR but anytime gator/warpe agree on a lynch together i'm going to follow suit, holding off for now.

Also i still dont agree about roid and think hes the best chance at finding Santa claws (the theory provided by the seer). And i think any list of villagers should def include wuf at this point, i agree with what wuf has had to say more than anyone else so far.

[philly and the phanatics]

just saw wuf's post and im not condoning the way that Gala is playing i just dont think because he cannot be bothered we should have to waste our lynch on him....if the vig really wants to he can shoot him, but isnt it maybe even beneficial to leave him around cause hes just going to be an extra villager that the wolves have to kill to win the game? idk...someone good clear this up for me

[fulksy]

yea i asked that question earlier, what do you do with players that are almost completely inactive. seems pointless to waste a lynch on them (even though they could be wolves). but if the are wolves seems like a pretty ez strategy as villagers have nothing to go on and are just gambooling if they decide to lynch them.

i have pretty much the same list as carroters. i'll go with Lynch TLR.

[DropTheBanana]

After the debacle that was my last theory, I've decided to allocate some of my suspicion.

I'm finding it hard to pinpoint any really active or obvious wolves. I feel like many of them are probably hiding away in the shadows to an extent

I agree 100% with this. It really feels like we're just so ass backwards and pointing fingers in the wrong directions, that the wolves have gracefully bowed out.

Willburforce/XTR/Donachello all fit this theory to a T.

There post count ITT has greatly decreased over time.

Warpe did bold Wilbur on Day 1, which could be some cause to the Night 2 recruit
It's not much he sticks out that much more from the other three.

My track record for going against the group is shit so far, so if we can't agree that Wilbur is a better lynch than XTR, I'm more than happy string him up and lay the Wilbur case to rest for the time being.

lynch WilburForce

[TLR]

yea i asked that question earlier, what do you do with players that are almost completely inactive. seems pointless to waste a lynch on them (even though they could be wolves). but if the are wolves seems like a pretty ez strategy as villagers have nothing to go on and are just gambooling if they decide to lynch them.

i have pretty much the same list as carroters. i'll go with Lynch TLR.

With inactive players who post just enough to avoid getting modkilled I think the best course of action is to lynch them early, when we still have some room for error, even if they are villagers those are not the kind if villagers you want to play end game with, since they have no idea what is going on and thus usually make their decision based on who is more convincing in argueing at the current day rather then actual events thru the entire game.

All those who are voting against me, I have not seen any real reasoning to why do you think I am a wolf, which makes at least some of you very suspeicous.

I have been suspecious of Carroters and philly for the last few days (along with Gala and BR), Wuf I believe to be a villager, he plays similarly to the last game he played

[fulksy]

@ TLR. i'll be honest here, i don't really have a clue who the wolves are, but i believe i have a relatively decent idea on who some of the villagers are. I'm not sure if voting for the inactives is good (which is why i asked the question), so excluding who i think are villagers and the inactives I'm left with a few names who Might be wolves and instead of shooting from the hip, i figure i minus well BW with one of the players i think is a villager, as they probably have more experience in this situation and therefore a better guess then i would have. i'm not opposed to changing my vote if someone can present a better candidate.

[fulksy]

also from any of the regs, are bigred's posts always this random and irrelevant. seems like he's good at deflecting any sort of attention to himself. meh just a thought.

[rong]

Re the inactives, in general we have to lynch them to remove non posting as a viable wolf strategy. But in this case we're I. Such bad shape we could really do with hitting a wolf, and tlr, jv, philly and roid all seem like good options to me. I'll happily lynch any of them.

[rong]

And br is often this random and useless

[TLR]

@ TLR. i'll be honest here, i don't really have a clue who the wolves are, but i believe i have a relatively decent idea on who some of the villagers are. I'm not sure if voting for the inactives is good (which is why i asked the question), so excluding who i think are villagers and the inactives I'm left with a few names who Might be wolves and instead of shooting from the hip, i figure i minus well BW with one of the players i think is a villager, as they probably have more experience in this situation and therefore a better guess then i would have. i'm not opposed to changing my vote if someone can present a better candidate.

So basically you have no reason why you lynched me other then carroter's vote, and carroter's have no reason other then that I think he is a wolf, sorry, but it makes no sense to me.

I am going to lynch Gala because there is a decent chance he is a wolf, and if he is not at least I would like to see some defense from him.

[Carroters]

Yeah I'm more working with a process of elimination right now. There are certain people I feel fairly strongly are villagers and those not in that camp I'm having to pick the best bets out of. I'd also probably be fine with a Wilbur or BR lynch.

Still waiting to see what Warpe Gator think before Ichange my vote though. I find TLR suspicious for the same reasons he claims to find me suspicious, mainly that he finds he's putting heat on me when, looking back I haven't done anything imo thatcan be interpreted as wolfy and am playing the same way I always play since I'm always and forever a god damn villager

[GatorJH]

I need to really read things through again but that won't be until later tonight. After a quick glance last night, Bigred, Willbur and XTR top my list, but I am not ready to bold anyone until a thorough review as we can afford too many more missteps.