***2010 CHRISTMAS WEREWOLF***

[wufwugy]

I may as well shoot someone who has a high probability of being a wolf (i.e. someone who bolds lynches on me for no reason).

Dude, this is why you're getting bolded. You're doing things like claiming no reason when the person has ample reason. DTB's reasons may be wrong, but he has explained himself. Then when you claim that he's not given any reasons, it makes you look so suspicious

I honestly have trouble even believing you, and think this could be a baddy hail mary to try to out a newb vig. That's how little sense it makes to claim to be a vig regardless of the truth

Also, If I had the option, I'd lynch the vig on the first day of every game. Statistically, vigs are unwitting, closet wolves unless the only thing they do is shoot based on seer lookups and an outed angel, but even then it doesn't really matter. Vigs kill way more villagers than they do wolves, and almost any time you're shooting based on something other than known probability, it's simply in the dark and hits a villager most of the time. Not to mention that the shots give little information compared to lynches or eats, and the vig actually has a negative impact on the village

And now I don't know what to do. If you're the vig and you live you're gonna shoot a couple villagers, one of whom you say is me. Fantastic. But could I get away with still getting the vig lynched in order to keep him from shooting me? Doubtful

rescind SDM

[StillDeadMoney]

Dude, this is why you're getting bolded. You're doing things like claiming no reason when the person has ample reason. DTB's reasons may be wrong, but he has explained himself. Then when you claim that he's not given any reasons, it makes you look so suspicious

I didn't see a point-by-point rebuttal. What we got was a few posts saying "a lot of people are suspicious, but he never seems to get a lynch train going on him". Since my vote got really close with kingnat I had no choice but to out myself and get off one more shot.

Also, If I had the option, I'd lynch the vig on the first day of every game. Statistically, vigs are unwitting, closet wolves unless the only thing they do is shoot based on seer lookups and an outed angel

Let's look at the statistics.

Every day, the village picks someone to hang and the wolves eat. Two people leave the village every day: one person on the villager team, and one wolf or villager. Hence, only one half of the people that are eliminated in the game every day have a chance of being a wolf. In a purely random scenario (villagers hang randomly) with just villagers and wolves, long games tend to favor the wolves because they get to thin out the village at least as fast as the village can get rid of the wolves.

If you add in a vigilante that shoots randomly, every second day (or however often he gets to shoot) there is another random chance either a wolf or a villager gets removed, which lessens the amount of days in the game (and thus, less free passes to the wolves to eat villagers). In a game with no seer and no angel where everyone behaves randomly, it is a mathematically optimal strategy for the vigilante to shoot as often as possible.

The angel has been outed (GatorJH) and the seer is incognito. I can hope for one of two things: either the wolves play poorly enough so that the village can figure things out, or the seer comes out late in the game and outs at least a few wolves. I don't think either have too good a chance of happening in this case. We haven't had one majority lynch yet and most people are keeping as quiet as possible.

There are 22 people in the village. I am the vig and obviously won't shoot myself, so I have a 6 in 21 chance of hitting a wolf. That's about 29%, assuming I do it randomly. That's a pretty decent chance.

Not to mention that the shots give little information compared to lynches or eats, and the vig actually has a negative impact on the village

If the wolves play perfectly, there is no "information" to be had at all. I was not convinced of the BooG lynch and the kingnat lynch will probably end up with him being another villager.

[wufwugy]

Every day, the village picks someone to hang and the wolves eat. Two people leave the village every day: one person on the villager team, and one wolf or villager. Hence, only one half of the people that are eliminated in the game every day have a chance of being a wolf. In a purely random scenario (villagers hang randomly) with just villagers and wolves, long games tend to favor the wolves because they get to thin out the village at least as fast as the village can get rid of the wolves.

If you add in a vigilante that shoots randomly, every second day (or however often he gets to shoot) there is another random chance either a wolf or a villager gets removed, which lessens the amount of days in the game (and thus, less free passes to the wolves to eat villagers). In a game with no seer and no angel where everyone behaves randomly, it is a mathematically optimal strategy for the vigilante to shoot as often as possible.

The angel has been outed (GatorJH) and the seer is incognito. I can hope for one of two things: either the wolves play poorly enough so that the village can figure things out, or the seer comes out late in the game and outs at least a few wolves. I don't think either have too good a chance of happening in this case. We haven't had one majority lynch yet and most people are keeping as quiet as possible.

There are 22 people in the village. I am the vig and obviously won't shoot myself, so I have a 6 in 21 chance of hitting a wolf. That's about 29%, assuming I do it randomly. That's a pretty decent chance.

Yeah, I'm seeing that. I don't, however, think it nullifies the negatives. For example, to win, the village has to kill all the wolves, not just some. That factor alone throws a monkey wrench into those preliminary statistics and largely voids them. If the vig kills hurt enough of the information gathering that would reveal the remaining wolves then the vig would end up being a boon to the wolves

Also, you have to factor in things like the probability of the vig accidentally killing the seer. which I think is a huge statistical negative. There are probably some strategies the vig could use that are good though. Like if the vig waits until the seer is out to unload then I think the statistics become favorable enough as to nullify the negatives

Anyways, this is neither here nor there, and it probably just makes it sound like I'm trying to convince you to not shoot tonight

[StillDeadMoney]

Also, you have to factor in things like the probability of the vig accidentally killing the seer. which I think is a huge statistical negative.

You never know for sure of somebody's role until after they die, or after the game ends. Though I agree that some plays are more credible than others.

Take, for example, Gator's claim of being the angel. Is he really? Everyone basically has to take his word for it. Assuming the real angel always protects themselves, anytime a wolf gets blocked from eating, Gator can shrug his arms and say "well looks like they thought they would try to level me". Since someone is claiming to be an angel, it's unlikely the seer would come out and expose some wolves even if they do find some. If the seer outs the real angel, he dies, and trading off the seer for a wolf is not a terrible deal for the wolves in my opinion. Would the wolves ever try something like this? Probably not; I merely wanted to illustrate that you can't really trust anyone in this game besides yourself.