AA max value on Q626 3-way

[Razvan729]

to DBrose: any reason why he should bet or just instinct?

[daven]

ok, as played I bet the turn something like $4.8 and got two folds and hated myself cos i'd already checked the HUD popup for co's bet vs missed turn c-bet and thought 'check-shove time fo sho, but what about the fish in the blinds'. If he checked back turn i'm definitely getting a river street of value when i bet.

May I ask you about your rationale for your bet sizing on the flop? (

1 - neither villain can have the nut flush draw as I hold the flush ace. That plus the Qs being on the board means that there are also far less flush draws to protect than normal as instead of all Asxs plus a few random scs/broadways.
2 - neither villain is raising without a hand that beats AQ, and KK/AA are hugely discounted due to preflop/blockers. So if I'm raised i'm toast
3 - so basically it's about getting max-value. Max value means being able to easily get it in over 3 streets, and it means getting two callers on the flop. Better to bet $1.8 and go 3-way vs crap than to bet $2.2 and go HU to the turn or even likely take it down there and then
4 - $1.8 is small enough to start to sow the seeds of doubt...h

also, @daviddem re your sizing and frequency rationale = pretty damn solid for the micros. NH. Just one comment.
c-bet sizing makes things interesting here. Your approach makes sense, so does sometimes c-betting just over 1/2 pot into two opponents on dry-ish boards. The math is easy

[DBRose]

to DBrose: any reason why he should bet or just instinct?

If CO decides to check behind and try to get to showdown with a hand like TT/JJ, QJs etc then we get no value from his hand or whatever the BB could hold which can definitely be some flush draws and weaker hands that will call.

OP, you might be giving CO a bit too much credit to read your hand as a faceup AKs. I think betting the turn here is best of all options.

[Keith]

If CO decides to check behind and try to get to showdown with a hand like TT/JJ, QJs etc then we get no value from his hand or whatever the BB could hold which can definitely be some flush draws and weaker hands that will call.

Thats not what daven's read says he will do though.CO is kinda floaty , doesn't fld much to flop cbets. A check here is an open door for CO to stab and try and nick the pot. This in turn lets the passive BB potentially call and leads to the shove and getting the money in. with the TT/JJ QJ hands you quote , he isn't going to be calling two barrels with them, but could definately stab with them.

OP, you might be giving CO a bit too much credit to read your hand as a faceup AKs. I think betting the turn here is best of all options.

how many hands that Daven beats are going to continue though?and how many hands that have him beaten are going to fold?