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AA max value on Q626 3-way

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  1. #6
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Aug 2009
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    why?
    1) I generally don't cbet with air OOP vs 2 opps because I get in the sh*t more often than not when I do that.

    More rationally, let's consider one opp who is likely to lay down his hand 66% of the time when I cbet p into a p pot. When he continues, I'll barrel again and let's say I am going to profit 2p 1/2 of the time and loose 4p 1/2 of the time. If I am heads up against him, then it's a good play:
    EV=0.66*p+0.33*(0.5*2p-0.5*4p)=0.33p

    edit: even if my second barrel looses 4p 2/3rd of the time and wins 2p 1/3rd of the time, I break even

    If I am facing two of these opps, they'll only both give up their hand 0.66*0.66=43% of the time. They both continue 11% of the time. And one of them continues 46% of the time. Let's say when they both continue I just shut down and only loose my p cbet.
    EV=0.43*p-0.11*p+0.46*(0.5*2p-0.5*4p)=-0.14p

    Simplistic math, but this illustrates how much worse it is to cbet-bluff vs 2 rather than 1. I think you need a serious edge to cbet bluff profitably vs 2.

    2) why do I bet more with a good hand vs 2 opps and OOP than vs 1 opp in position? Because it's a value bet, and my opp is more likely to continue because he has a positional advantage. He should be ready to pay a little more for this advantage. Or taken the other way around, I want my opp to pay the price to cover the cost of my positional disadvantage. And why more against 2 than 1? Basically to avoid offering magnificent odds. If I bet 0.5p into p and opp1 calls with 25% pot odds, then opp2 has even better 20% pot odds, which he can call profitably with any kind of draw. If I bet p, opp1 has 33% pot odds and when opp1 calls opp2 has 25% pot odds. You're also more likely to get heads up on the next street, a desirable situation with non utter nuts type of hands, or put another way, opps pay the price to make us play vs 2 which in general makes our equity in the hand plummet.

    I realize that it is exploitable to "never cbet-bluff vs 2 OOP", but at the stakes I play at it matters less than the above reasons.

    Now I am sure there are flaws in my reasoning above or you would not have asked the question... over, to you!

    also you gotta remember that nobody has any respect for me cos their hud shows something like 21-13 and they've seen me bluff rivers with air, valuebet 3rd pair, and overbet shove draws on the turn...
    OK, I'll keep in mind that you're fos next time I comment on one of your hands!
    Last edited by daviddem; 11-29-2010 at 08:58 AM.
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