Why is your steal sizing 4x? You're cutting your own balls on your profit if you do that consistently. Vs nittier players you can make it 3x or 2.5x OTB and have them fold making it way more profitable for you to steal.
Maths:
Assuming combined the SB and BB together fold 82% of the time to a steal. (This would make any two cards profitable to open.)
.82 * 1.5 = 1.23bb
.18 * 4 = .72bb (assuming we never win postflop which is pretty lol)
1.23 - .72 = .51bb every time we steal and give up postflop when called/fold to a 3bet if we raise 4x
.82 * 1.5 = 1.23bb
.18 * 3 = .54bb
1.23 - .54 = .69bb if we raise to 3x.
That's a difference of .18bb for EVERY HAND we steal 3x instead of 4x.
To put it another way, thats an added 18bb/100 hands raising 3x instead of 4x.
Poker is a fun game isn't it?
.82 * 1.5 = 1.23bb
.18 * 2.5 = .45bb
1.23 - .45 = .78bb every time we open to 2.5x. That's a .27bb difference, or 27bb/100 by raising to 2.5x instead of 4.
Keep that in mind the next time you're stealing.![]()



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