operation: same as everyone else

[rpm]

DB Spot #4

villain is 25/15/0 over 21. 0% FTCB out of 2 opportunities

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($21.22)
MP2 ($11.83)
Hero (CO) ($12.36)
Button ($10.91)
SB ($12.34)
BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.60)
UTG+1 ($5.15)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, J
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.70) 3, 3, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1
River: ($3.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80
Total pot: $9.10 | Rake: $0.44

Preflop
22-QQ, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+, 43s-QJs
seems a pretty standard flatting range for 10nlers i've seen

Flop
doubt this bet will be profitable in the vacuum but i had two backdoor draws and a few good barreling cards (+equity against 44-QQ) so i cbet. calling range:
33-QQ, 43s, A8s-AQs, ATo-AQo, 54ss-QJss

33-QQ (57), A8s-A9s (6), AT-AQ (33), 43s (2), 54ss-QJss (8)

this = 106 combos

Turn
i think he folds all pairs 44-JJ, with the exception of the higher ones which contain a spade. i'll say

8s8+, QQ, 43s, 54ss-JQss, A8s-A9s, AT-AQ

88-JJ w/1 spade (12), QQ (3), 43s (2), 54ss-JTss (7), A8s-A9s (6), AT-AQ (30)

this = 60 combos. or 60/106 = 55% of the time he calls, 45% he folds. as i needed 40% FE to breakeven in a vacuum (i bet 2/3 pot), the bet is +EV disregarding my 20-24% equity against his calling range. i should note here that flushes and full houses are likely to check/raise this turn, and i don't know how to factor that in to the analyses, but i sense it would involve some EV equation business, determining what % of the continuing range he check raises, and how much equity i have against it, and how large he check/raises and how much i expect to win on x% of rivers etc etc etc.

[philly and the phanatics]

DB Spot #4

villain is 25/15/0 over 21. 0% FTCB out of 2 opportunities

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($21.22)
MP2 ($11.83)
Hero (CO) ($12.36)
Button ($10.91)
SB ($12.34)
BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.60)
UTG+1 ($5.15)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, J
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.70) 3, 3, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1
River: ($3.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80
Total pot: $9.10 | Rake: $0.44

analysis to come later

again generally a bad spot to 2 barrell cause fish love to call down with thier Ax hands and a 25/15 (i know lol sample size but even more lol sample size on his fold to cbet (only 2 times??)) is going to have a lot of that in his range ...obviously the Qs is the best card to possibly come out for you to barrel cause you just picked up NFD and a GSSD so you have tons of equity when you are called... but hes going to have some flushes, some 3's, mebe FHs , and a ton of Ax thats folding here like never, only thing hes really calling the flop here and folding to a turn bet is some PPs, his missed broadways picked up a lot of Q pairs .

Cliffs
i like the barrell cause the Qs and the nut potential of our hand picks up, but typically with a hand like a 8s8 or a KJ with no spade, i likely shut down and check behind hopefully get to check behind on the river too


kinda rambled there for a minute sorry...

[rpm]

again generally a bad spot to 2 barrell cause fish love to call down with thier Ax hands and a 25/15 (i know lol sample size but even more lol sample size on his fold to cbet (only 2 times??)) is going to have a lot of that in his range ...obviously the Qs is the best card to possibly come out for you to barrel cause you just picked up NFD and a GSSD so you have tons of equity when you are called... but hes going to have some flushes, some 3's, mebe FHs , and a ton of Ax thats folding here like never, only thing hes really calling the flop here and folding to a turn bet is some PPs, his missed broadways picked up a lot of Q pairs .

Cliffs
i like the barrell cause the Qs and the nut potential of our hand picks up, but typically with a hand like a 8s8 or a KJ with no spade, i likely shut down and check behind hopefully get to check behind on the river too


kinda rambled there for a minute sorry...

some things that came to mind reading your post. no hate intended.

bold number 1 - you later said "i like the barrel"
bold number 2 - agreed
bold number 3 - very few, if any, imo
bold number 4 - i doubt he ever C/C's even KQ high here. if he is floating missed broadways OOP on an ace high board, i imagine it'd be very few
bold number 5 - i like your thinking, me too.

i sorted out the original HH with range analysis, let me know where you would include/exclude different holdings at different stages of the hand.

[philly and the phanatics]

some things that came to mind reading your post. no hate intended.

bold number 1 - you later said "i like the barrel"
bold number 2 - agreed
bold number 3 - very few, if any, imo
bold number 4 - i doubt he ever C/C's even KQ high here. if he is floating missed broadways OOP on an ace high board, i imagine it'd be very few
bold number 5 - i like your thinking, me too.

i sorted out the original HH with range analysis, let me know where you would include/exclude different holdings at different stages of the hand.

with your opening range id probably throw in more Ax cause fish really value Ax hands, even if that means dropping some SC's from his range.

bold no1 - lol i liked it cause the turn card that came but i just meant that generally an Ace high board vs a 25/15 is not a good spot to be barrelling (obv a great spot to be cbetting but once im called im probably shutting down as far as bluffing goes, if you want to try and get 2 streets from his flush draws and he shuts down on the river and doesnt bluff when he misses, so you can win with ur K-high then thats good too)

bold no 3-
I agree very few 3's, id probably limit it to A3 (although you dont have that in his range so i guess going by ur range only 43 (even less 3's obv))

bold no 4- yea i agree, i just figured that with a double barrell you wanted to illustrate him folding a lot of combos and i wanted to make the point that even if he was floating you with missed overs then this card likely wont deter him from calling again. (pretty pointless on my part sorry)

as for your statement about him raising or w/e...if we do this as a pure bluff (which you even said it is still EV+ disregarding our 24%equity), then it doesnt matter if he calls or raises because we are assuming we lose once he continues DUCY?

also if you throw in a lot more Ax hands into his range this quickly becomes a spot where you are very dependent on your fat chunk of equity.

[rpm]

\
as for your statement about him raising or w/e...if we do this as a pure bluff (which you even said it is still EV+ disregarding our 24%equity), then it doesnt matter if he calls or raises because we are assuming we lose once he continues DUCY?
\.

yes, i do. but in the real-world i do have some equity against made flushes and 3x. however, assuming decent C/R sizing, i imagine it'd be a pretty trivial fold.