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DB Spot #4
villain is 25/15/0 over 21. 0% FTCB out of 2 opportunities
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($21.22)
MP2 ($11.83)
Hero (CO) ($12.36)
Button ($10.91)
SB ($12.34)
BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.60)
UTG+1 ($5.15)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K , J
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.70) 3 , 3, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1
River: ($3.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80
Total pot: $9.10 | Rake: $0.44
Preflop
22-QQ, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+, 43s-QJs
seems a pretty standard flatting range for 10nlers i've seen
Flop
doubt this bet will be profitable in the vacuum but i had two backdoor draws and a few good barreling cards (+equity against 44-QQ) so i cbet. calling range:
33-QQ, 43s, A8s-AQs, ATo-AQo, 54ss-QJss
33-QQ (57), A8s-A9s (6), AT-AQ (33), 43s (2), 54ss-QJss (8)
this = 106 combos
Turn
i think he folds all pairs 44-JJ, with the exception of the higher ones which contain a spade. i'll say
8s8+, QQ, 43s, 54ss-JQss, A8s-A9s, AT-AQ
88-JJ w/1 spade (12), QQ (3), 43s (2), 54ss-JTss (7), A8s-A9s (6), AT-AQ (30)
this = 60 combos. or 60/106 = 55% of the time he calls, 45% he folds. as i needed 40% FE to breakeven in a vacuum (i bet 2/3 pot), the bet is +EV disregarding my 20-24% equity against his calling range. i should note here that flushes and full houses are likely to check/raise this turn, and i don't know how to factor that in to the analyses, but i sense it would involve some EV equation business, determining what % of the continuing range he check raises, and how much equity i have against it, and how large he check/raises and how much i expect to win on x% of rivers etc etc etc.
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