From IRC: A Bet-Sizing Quiz

Originally Posted by supahaole

$50 @ 60%, 1/2 the risk for the same payout.

Uhg, this is wrong because in option 1 we're risking $100 to win $100 and in option 2 we're risking $50 to win $50.

The EV is the same so...

If we only flip one coin one time it's better to take the $50 @ 60% option because we have a better chance of winning.

If we flip 1000 times then $100 @ %55 we make more actual monies.

This also assume there's no rake or any other factors that might change the maths.

In w/ wat b4 spoon

08-11-2010 05:32 PM #1
supa View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message View Blog Entries Join Date Feb 2010 Posts 3,529 Location At the bar drinking whisky with an "e"	Originally Posted by supahaole $50 @ 60%, 1/2 the risk for the same payout. Uhg, this is wrong because in option 1 we're risking $100 to win $100 and in option 2 we're risking $50 to win $50. The EV is the same so... If we only flip one coin one time it's better to take the $50 @ 60% option because we have a better chance of winning. If we flip 1000 times then $100 @ %55 we make more actual monies. This also assume there's no rake or any other factors that might change the maths. In w/ wat b4 spoon
	“Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all” Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years Originally Posted by d0zer start using your brain more and vagina less Originally Posted by kingnat Members who's signature is a humorous quote about his/herself made by someone who is considered a notable member of the FTR community to give themselves a sense of belonging.
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08-11-2010 05:42 PM #2
bhaley66 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message View Blog Entries Join Date Sep 2009 Posts 176 Location CA	Originally Posted by supahaole The EV is the same so... If we flip 1000 times then $100 @ %55 we make more actual monies. Wat? If we flip the coin 1000 times, we make 10k either way... ($100.55)-($100.45)(1000)=$10,000 ($50.6)-($50.4)(1000)=$10,000

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From IRC: A Bet-Sizing Quiz

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