NLHE Theory + Practice: Week 4

[fatguy'06]

Ok here is the post I wanted to give so others and point and laugh at my line of thought.

Two questions about this section first though,

1.) At the bottom of page 59 he says that we had to risk 3000 to win 1000. I dont understand how this is so.


2.) Kind of a side note: Anyone know why he calls it, "the hammer"? I feel like im missing some sort of visual cue..



$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG vesper188 ($0.75)
UTG+1 coexistance ($2.10)
MP1 Goodvin S ($0.98)
MP2 Hero ($2.48)
CO Pfafenrot ($2.96)
BTN voltita ($4.71)
SB schmufu81 ($1.98)
BB corbaty ($3.26)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 8 players) Hero is MP2
3 folds, Hero calls $0.02, 3 folds, corbaty raises to $0.08, Hero calls $0.06

The table has been pretty weak/tight for the most part and looking back I should have opened, but that's beside the point for this thread. Villain is 13/13 over only 30 hands and has cbet 75% of the time. I called in position for set value expecting his range to be something like: {88+,KT+,Ax,QJ,JT}.


Flop: ($0.17, 2 players)
corbaty bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.24, corbaty folds

As previously stated, the cbet was expected whether he hit on the flop or not. I figure he would call/re-raise a raise if he had a queen, queens beat, or maybe FD and would fold with anything else. So of the 24 possible hands I put him on, I'm guessing he would fold about 18 of them (75%). With this in mind I think my reraise, should have been around or slightly less than 75% pot (around $0.20). Because I obviously couldnt raise by that much, I went for .24 to win .29 which makes the decision overall unprofitable.

[Imthenewfish]

Ok here is the post I wanted to give so others and point and laugh at my line of thought.

Two questions about this section first though,

1.) At the bottom of page 59 he says that we had to risk 3000 to win 1000. I dont understand how this is so.


2.) Kind of a side note: Anyone know why he calls it, "the hammer"? I feel like im missing some sort of visual cue..



$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG vesper188 ($0.75)
UTG+1 coexistance ($2.10)
MP1 Goodvin S ($0.98)
MP2 Hero ($2.48)
CO Pfafenrot ($2.96)
BTN voltita ($4.71)
SB schmufu81 ($1.98)
BB corbaty ($3.26)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 8 players) Hero is MP2
3 folds, Hero calls $0.02, 3 folds, corbaty raises to $0.08, Hero calls $0.06

The table has been pretty weak/tight for the most part and looking back I should have opened, but that's beside the point for this thread. Villain is 13/13 over only 30 hands and has cbet 75% of the time. I called in position for set value expecting his range to be something like: {88+,KT+,Ax,QJ,JT}.


Flop: ($0.17, 2 players)
corbaty bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.24, corbaty folds

As previously stated, the cbet was expected whether he hit on the flop or not. I figure he would call/re-raise a raise if he had a queen, queens beat, or maybe FD and would fold with anything else. So of the 24 possible hands I put him on, I'm guessing he would fold about 18 of them (75%). With this in mind I think my reraise, should have been around or slightly less than 75% pot (around $0.20). Because I obviously couldnt raise by that much, I went for .24 to win .29 which makes the decision overall unprofitable.

Does a min raise work all that more often than calling and betting the turn?

[JKDS]

I'm guessing he would fold about 18 of them (75%). With this in mind I think my reraise, should have been around or slightly less than 75% pot

Nope. Think of it this way, hes gonna be folding 75% of his hands to a bet right? Lets assume that other 25% of the time we lose. So if we ran this hand out 4 times...3 times we'd win the pot, and 1 time we'd lose our bet. So our bet could be as large as 3 times the pot for us to make a break even play.

In the hand in question, the pot was .29, so we could bet as much as .87 here and still be ok...assuming of course that our initial guess that he'd fold 75% of hands was on the mark.

Of course...our long term profit increases as our bet size decreases...so as said in the book we should bluff as much as needed to get the job done and no more. a bet of .87 here would be absolutely horrid since a minraise is apparently all that would be required.

All that...assuming we wanted to bluff the hand to begin with.

[NightGizmo]

As previously stated, the cbet was expected whether he hit on the flop or not. I figure he would call/re-raise a raise if he had a queen, queens beat, or maybe FD and would fold with anything else. So of the 24 possible hands I put him on, I'm guessing he would fold about 18 of them (75%). With this in mind I think my reraise, should have been around or slightly less than 75% pot (around $0.20). Because I obviously couldnt raise by that much, I went for .24 to win .29 which makes the decision overall unprofitable.

Is your math right here? If you expect to have 75% fold equity and 0 equity if he continues (an oversimplification), then you can bet up to 3 times pot profitably as a bluff. Right?

75%(pot) - 25%(bet) > 0
3(pot) > bet

EDIT -- Never mind, I just read JKDS's post which says the same thing. Sorry.