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 Originally Posted by fatguy'06
I' m guessing he would fold about 18 of them (75%). With this in mind I think my reraise, should have been around or slightly less than 75% pot
Nope. Think of it this way, hes gonna be folding 75% of his hands to a bet right? Lets assume that other 25% of the time we lose. So if we ran this hand out 4 times...3 times we'd win the pot, and 1 time we'd lose our bet. So our bet could be as large as 3 times the pot for us to make a break even play.
In the hand in question, the pot was .29, so we could bet as much as .87 here and still be ok...assuming of course that our initial guess that he'd fold 75% of hands was on the mark.
Of course...our long term profit increases as our bet size decreases...so as said in the book we should bluff as much as needed to get the job done and no more. a bet of .87 here would be absolutely horrid since a minraise is apparently all that would be required.
All that...assuming we wanted to bluff the hand to begin with.
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