Quote Originally Posted by revolvingiris
I always thought wins, losses, bad beats, suck outs, etc were all variables of variance?
yes, but we're talking about what gives you more variance, playing in a game where you get it in good every time and get bad beat from time to time, or playing in a game where you get it in as a flip vs. someone's range and run into the top of their range

example: at NL2 you'll get it in with TPTK vs. the drooler that will felt TPNK, and fold to the passive fish's raise on the flop with the same hand
at NL100 you'll get it in with TPTK on a drawy flop vs. a reg and he'll either have a draw or a set

at NL2 you're going to experience "bad beats" because the guy's K2 will river a 2 to beat your AK on a K high flop
at NL100 bad beats are not going to be common because you're either a 65% favorite or about a flip vs. a combo draw or drawing to runner runner vs. a set

so while there are going to be numerous bad beats at NL2 because you're always getting it in good, you're going to have much higher variance at NL100 because you're about a flip every time you get it in with regs (although if you play better than them you'll probably either get more value bets in or make them fold more)