Flop bluff

[seven-deuce]

Well i'v been reading a lot of spoonitnows threads lately and am going to try out some new things and do alot more analysis after sessions etc. If their is anyone on here that has a flare for maths let me know cos there's some stuff i need help with.

so here's the hand.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($5.82)
UTG ($2.48)
MP ($5.12)
Button ($5.86)
SB ($5.06)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, J
2 folds, Button bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) 6, A, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.15, 1 fold

Total pot: $0.32 | Rake: $0.01

Villain was 36/33 over 35 hands small sample i know.

so to get a rough range i stoved 33% hands and i got

55+,A2s+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T8s+,98s,A5o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9 o+,T9o

adding up the combos then adjusting for the J7 blockers from my hand to some of the combos i got 463 hands preflop.

I assumed he would only continue with TP sets and strong second pairs JJ-KK and i got 151 combos

I bet 3bb into 6bb so 3/(3+6)=0.3333 so i need villain to fold 33% of his range to make this +ev. 151/463=0.3261 villain is only folding 32% so it is slightly -EV

But if i had only bet 2bb 2/(2+6)=0.25 i would only need villain to fold 25% of the time and he is folding 151/463=0.3261 32% so it would be a +ev bluff in a vaccum.

[ColdDecked]

Why are you calling pre?

[seven-deuce]

Defending my blind.

[MikeMcFlack]

Nice bluff.

[Arjonius]

Your analysis seems stacked to make your action look better. For example, what basis is there to assume his flop calling range includes JJ but not TT? Or other hidden second pairs for that matter?

Plus if he calls, I suspect you're planning to check-fold the turn and thus not put any more money into the pot. But what if you pair on the turn?

And as for your stated reason of defending your blind, have you considered what conditions are more or less favorable for doing so with a nothing hand?

[supa]

Nice bluff.

Not sure I agree. It worked and that's great but I think we need to understand our own image better. In reality we aren't repping very much. Are we ever donking our set on this flop? What about Ax?

[seven-deuce]

Your analysis seems stacked to make your action look better. For example, what basis is there to assume his flop calling range includes JJ but not TT? Or other hidden second pairs for that matter?

Plus if he calls, I suspect you're planning to check-fold the turn and thus not put any more money into the pot. But what if you pair on the turn?

And as for your stated reason of defending your blind, have you considered what conditions are more or less favorable for doing so with a nothing hand?

I think his range has a lot more air than mine here, i can rep a lot of Ax here and i think he will fold to aggression. Yes check fold if he calls, if i pair turn still check fold. Im behind to his whole value betting range even if i pair my J. Villain was fit or fold not bluffing much if at all. When i call from BB vs the BTN i can rep a lot of broadways and aces, i think villain will fold to aggresion unless he has significant showdown value so im picking up value with a nothing hand where as i'd be losing a bb with it by simply folding.

[seven-deuce]

Not sure I agree. It worked and that's great but I think we need to understand our own image better. In reality we aren't repping very much. Are we ever donking our set on this flop? What about Ax?

Yeah good points. But i think this villain was opening a wide range of hands and playing fit or fold post flop, do i didn't necessarily have to be reppin' much to get a fold.

[joker131]

its just a simple continuation bet. with a A on the flop any bet gets a fold if he dont hit the flop.

[kickass]

It's horrid

[Pascal]

It's not a continuation bet because we didn't raise pre. I'm split into two minds on this - we don't rep anything if our image is a good player true, but I see weaker players doing this all the time with strong hands so if we have that image/are an unknown I can see it working. Regardless of that, I don't like donking this flop with no equity. I'd also fold pre because J7o plays horribly out of position with no betting lead.

[Stacks]

Defending my blind.

Defend your blind differently.

[Micro2Macro]

bad when u have no reads on opening range or postflop play given your hand is total shit and he 3x'd

[Carroters]

Unfortunately, you can't just give him a folding range of top pair or better. For this to be accurate you need to know your opponent is extremely fit or fold and weak tight and this doesn't seem to be the case. In reality most players won't fold any pair to your line and will frequently play back without one given you rep very little and it just looks ridiculous to many guys to donk out on this texture w/o history. This leads to your bet working far less than you predict, although it's good that you gave ranging a shot like this.

Your defend pre is also bad. The term "defending my blinds" is thrown around a lot by players who have more ego than sense (live pros on tv mainly) and is a load of bullshit. Most TAGs could do with defending more out the blinds, but readless with J7o out of position, it's never going to be profitable. You get dealt many hands you can defend with here Eg. A9s 88 KQo JTs so don't play anything this bad lacking all of the 4 desirable things: position, initiative, reads to make postflop more +EV and good pot odds.

[seven-deuce]

Thanks for the responses, i read through a few scenarios spoonitnow had set up about cbetting and bluffing in a vaccum and then i tried to apply it to my own game and it ended up being a pretty big fail lol i think it would be better applied when im IP cbetting small when i miss the flop against a villain who c/f alot when he's oop and also misses. I'm aware this will only work against fit or fold fish at the micros who won't adjust and it will be less effective against better players as your giving a pretty clear bet sizing tell. Although you could counter adjust and start to do this with your stronger hands that can stand a few streets of betting against it to extract value from a villains bluffs ok i'm now officially rambling. At least i learned something from posting this.

[kmind]

I echo what has already been said.

But also, what % of his range is cbetting that flop btw? Probably around 100% if we were to take a guess on the limited reads we have, right? That makes leading the flop a lot worse than a c/r.

[rpm]

pre is a terrible play because your hand has next to no postflop playability. doing heaps of range analyses and checking the baseline fold % for your bluffs to be +EV in a vacuum etc, on the other hand, is a very good play. keep doing that and you will be improving at a fast rate.

[daven]

fold bad hands pre, even more so out of position, even more so vs a bigger than 2.2x open.
flop donk is meh whatever check-raise makes more madness. You wouldn't donk strong made hands here without reads right? cos villain will cbet the ace most of the time with his air, but fold his air vs a donk.

re the range - don't try to put villain on a concrete range here based on 35 hands and a steal, not really. Just note that his range is very wide and mostly isn't sets or two pair or top pair.

re the maths
you bet 0.15 into 0.32
so he needs to fold about 33% for this to be a breakeven bluff without anything else taken into consideration. He folds 33% here just cos, so meh. There are better ways to play this hand. Ways that don't involve a flop.