A place to fold trips?

[davisrei]

My apologies for the rough HH here, I can't find this one in my Bovada histories, and I'm having to go from memory.

I was at least 2 hours into the session, the player to my direct left was nitty, with a stack that had mine covered in position.

Hero (~105 BB)
Villain (~120 BB)

I'm in middle to late position, and call several limpers with 77. Villain calls behind me.

The flop is 7,8,9 rainbow. I raise about 75% of the pot. I don't remember if there was a minor re-raise in between, but the Villain shoves and I have to decide whether to put the remaining 50% of my stack in.

At this point, I believe that he only has a few hands available to him.

7-8s, 8-9s, or 7-9s for two pairs (maybe with a backdoor flush draw), and he shoved to protect his two pair.

88, or 99 for trips.

10-10, and he shoved with top pair and an open ended straight draw, which could be +EV if the fold equity is right, but this doesn't seem to match his previously nitty play.

10-J for the straight.

Given that so much of these beat my set of 7's, along with my read on him as a tight player, is there ever a good reason to call this?

[MadMojoMonkey]

stove it, find the equity, compare it to pot odds...

read appropriate sticky threads on how to do those things if needed.

Then tell us what you learned.

[davisrei]

Well, that was surprising...

I was certain that calling here was a mistake, but...

Pokerstove results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.001 secs 18,810,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 8s 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.440% 41.96% 01.48% 7892 279.00 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 56.560% 55.08% 01.48% 10360 279.00 { TT-88, JTs, 97s+, 87s }

So, I appear to have an equity of 43.440% of the pot, which after his shove would have been approximately $15 * .4344 = $6.52, which would mean that I would be risking about $5.00 for $6.52 in equity, for a net Expected Value of $1.52.

From a pot odds perspective I have a...1 to 3 pot odds call ($5.00 to win $15, bounded on the low end by my stack size) with a 43.440% chance of winning. So...1 to 3 pot odds versus 1 to 2.3 chance of winning.

Easy call, even in the face of this incredibly scary deck and nitty player.



The actual outcome of this hand was that I did call, and he turned over 9's, which held up and stacked me. I left that table, found another, and with the other two tables I was playing ended the session up a few dollars total.

[davisrei]

What I learned is that trips are extremely powerful. Even in the face of a scary board.

And PokerStove is your friend.

[MadMojoMonkey]

How tight would his pre-flop range need to be in order for you to find a fold here?

EDIT: I mean can you construct a reasonable range that Villain would take this line with that would have you fold?

[davisrei]

It would literally have to be dead on 8's or 9's; even with the addition of the 10's plus straight draw, it's still slightly positive EV to call.

Board: 7h 8s 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.071% 35.45% 01.62% 4212 192.00 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 62.929% 61.31% 01.62% 7284 192.00 { TT-88 }


$15 * .37071 = $5.61 for a $5.00 call = $0.61 EV+


And I didn't even consider scenarios like slow played AA or KK, over betting with JJ, tilt betting with A-9, or even an unlikely cold bluff.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Exactly. For those odds, you can't fold this unless you have thousands of hands on this Villain and you know that he wont do this without a set, and since you're on Bovada, that will never happen. So you must call.

Next:
What size bet, in relation to the pot, would you have to fold?

[davisrei]

EDIT: I mean can you construct a reasonable range that Villain would take this line with that would have you fold?

I don't think that I can. I'd have to put him on the higher trips for sure, and there are too many other factors that could be in play...miss-click, distractions where he is, bluffing, tilt, slow played aces or kings...

[agnesamurphy]

I understand that this was meant to be a post-flop discussion, but I have to point out that limping in pre with the 7s was a pretty bad move. Definitely should have raised in mid to late position.

Granted, it worked out here because it's unlikely the villain would put you on a set based on your pre-flop play. It's also much more likely that the villain is shoving with hands that you beat. However, it did invite the villain to call behind you with those pockets that would have flopped a straight here.

By raising pre, your nitty villain's range is much narrower heading to the flop if he calls the raise. Even so, a call is still warranted.

[daviddem]

So, I appear to have an equity of 43.440% of the pot, which after his shove would have been approximately $15 * .4344 = $6.52, which would mean that I would be risking about $5.00 for $6.52 in equity, for a net Expected Value of $1.52.

The correct EV calculation here would be:
- 43.44% of the time you win $15
- 56.56% of the time you loose $5

So EV = 0.4344*$15 - 0.5656*$5 = $3.688

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Also mind that when you have three of a kind while holding a pocket pair, the hand is called a set. When you have three of a kind on a paired board with just one of your pocket cards being one of the "three", the hand is called trips. A set is vastly more powerful than trips, among others because it is better disguised and also because even if you are beat on the flop by a straight or a flush, you still have a non negligible chance to boat up (make a full house). The chance to boat up with trips is much slimmer.

I understand that this was meant to be a post-flop discussion, but I have to point out that limping in pre with the 7s was a pretty bad move. Definitely should have raised in mid to late position.

Granted, it worked out here because it's unlikely the villain would put you on a set based on your pre-flop play. It's also much more likely that the villain is shoving with hands that you beat. However, it did invite the villain to call behind you with those pockets that would have flopped a straight here.

By raising pre, your nitty villain's range is much narrower heading to the flop if he calls the raise. Even so, a call is still warranted.

That's not always true. Set mining at the micros works, and most villains will not put you on a set just because you limped pre and want action on the flop. If you have three or four limpers who like to limp/call and you raise, 9 times out of 10 you will find yourself on the flop in a bloated multiway pot with a hand that does not play well.

FWIW, my small/middling pairs are the only hands I limp with preflop, and I am profitable with them.

This may be different at higher stakes when villains become better at spotting sets.

[MadMojoMonkey]

A set is vastly more powerful than trips, [...] The chance to boat up with trips is much slimmer.

How many outs you have OTT with trips?

How many outs you have OTT with a set?

How many outs you have OTR with trips?

How many outs you have OTR with a set?

[Pascal]

I'm in middle to late position, and limp behind several limpers 77. Villain calls behind me.

The flop is 7,8,9 rainbow. I bet about 75% of the pot. I don't remember if there was a minor raise in between, but the Villain shoves and I have to decide whether to put the remaining 50% of my stack in.

At this point, I believe that he only has a few hands available to him.

7-8s, 8-9s, or 7-9s for two pairs (maybe with a backdoor flush draw), and he shoved to protect his two pair.

88, or 99 for a set.

Think most stuff is addressed already but just fixed some terminology for you in bold

[davisrei]

The correct EV calculation here would be:
- 43.44% of the time you win $15
- 56.56% of the time you loose $5

So EV = 0.4344*$15 - 0.5656*$5 = $3.688

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Thanks for that correction.

[daviddem]

How many outs you have OTT with trips?

How many outs you have OTT with a set?

How many outs you have OTR with trips?

How many outs you have OTR with a set?

It's true, I am wrong. You have the same chances of boating up with trips vs a flush or straight.

[davisrei]

Exactly. For those odds, you can't fold this unless you have thousands of hands on this Villain and you know that he wont do this without a set, and since you're on Bovada, that will never happen. So you must call.

Next:
What size bet, in relation to the pot, would you have to fold?

A nearly impossible one. Apparently he would have to overbet the pot by about 3-4x, provided that I have the stack size to not have any bounding effects come into play, and that would mostly be a function of how much was already in the pot...

The correct EV calculation here would be:
- 43.44% of the time you win $15
- 56.56% of the time you loose $5

So EV = 0.4344*$15 - 0.5656*$5 = $3.688

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Villain shoves into an unraised pot:

Pot = $00.20
Bet = $10.00
Remaining in my stack = $9.90
new pot = $10.10

.4344 * $10.10 = $4.39 (win)
.5656 * $ 9.90 = $5.60 (loss)

Expected Value = ($1.21 loss)


Villain shoves into a raised pot:

Pot: $ 2.60
Bet: $ 8.70
Remaining in my stack: $8.70
New Pot: $11.30

.4344 * $11.30 = $ 4.91
.5656 * $ 8.70 = $ 4.91

But that doesn't really address the issue. With a set, I'm not folding to a simple, less than massive, overbet on the first volley. It's exactly the kind of bet that someone holding A-9 on a wet board would make. And if I bet first in this case, which I believe that I did, then that 3-4x will rapidly become hard to reach.

So unless he just spew-bets, he's probably not going to get in that bet in a credible way that would tell me that we're playing for stacks before the real decision collapses down to below that threshold.

Even with that, if you add in the possibility of a super nitty player slow playing AA or KK, and then panicking when they see the straight draw, you get an even more difficult to fold to scenario where your equity goes up to 60.837%, and the villain now needs to over bet the pot by even more for it to be a negative EV calling situation.

And this doesn't include fishy/donk play either. And this is 10NL.

So I guess that the answer is, that we'd have to be playing with very deep stacks for this to be any kind of issue; even against a spew shove, there's not a good enough reason to fold in this situation.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Welcome to the forums. You'll do well here.

I also play 10NL at Bovada, so stay off my pots, yo!

[davisrei]

Welcome to the forums. You'll do well here.

I also play 10NL at Bovada, so stay off my pots, yo!

LOL! Thanks!