Funny how spots like this are easier when we put people on ranges:
He's really just
repping 44(3), 66(1) and A6s/76s/65s(6). He could have other
random 6x's but that's balanced by the fact that he doesn't always
flat the other6x's pre and by the fact that a lot of people
don't
raise a
boat/
quads here. So that's 10
combos vs all the
combos of draws he can have and he'll have
air a lot cause of lol ATS
spot against a lagg on a board that whiffed your
range and he could play
dominated overpairs like this a very non0%.
So yeah
don't
fold. So do we
flat or 3b?
Well what does raising do to his
range?
Well his
air will prolly
shove some small percent,
call almost never and
fold the vast majority of the time. His draws will
shove a ton a
call a fair amount. His overpairs will
fold some and continue cautiously some and
stack off no matter what some. Finally his 6x's will
shove a ton and
call some and I'd expect his boats and
quads to mostly
flat. So we'll either be facing a
shove against a more or less balanced
range (some 6x, a good amount of draws a lot of which have ~50%
equity against us and some
air) or he will
call with a
range of some
dominated pairs, a fair amount of
nutted hands, some draws and very little
air, or he'll
fold which isn't so bad cause of
dead money in a
spot where some scare cards can hit
If we
call, we keep his
range really wide and weak against someone who loves to
bluff in position with a lot of money left for him to
spew (but not so much that he'll have to
overbet or be raised to get it in by the
river. Since
IMO I
don't think the
turn will be THAT hard to play (16/48 cards are either diamonds or overcards, but his
air range and propensity to
bluff and our rquity due to having the
backdoor diamond is big enough to
call turn bets on diamond turns) we stand to make more by keeping his
range wide and letting him
spew.
Not bad analysis for being on an iPhone, eh?