Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
Funny how spots like this are easier when we put people on ranges:

He's really just repping 44(3), 66(1) and A6s/76s/65s(6). He could have other random 6x's but that's balanced by the fact that he doesn't always flat the other6x's pre and by the fact that a lot of people don't raise a boat/quads here. So that's 10 combos vs all the combos of draws he can have and he'll have air a lot cause of lol ATS spot against a lagg on a board that whiffed your range and he could play dominated overpairs like this a very non0%.

So yeah don't fold. So do we flat or 3b? Well what does raising do to his range?

Well his air will prolly shove some small percent, call almost never and fold the vast majority of the time. His draws will shove a ton a call a fair amount. His overpairs will fold some and continue cautiously some and stack off no matter what some. Finally his 6x's will shove a ton and call some and I'd expect his boats and quads to mostly flat. So we'll either be facing a shove against a more or less balanced range (some 6x, a good amount of draws a lot of which have ~50% equity against us and some air) or he will call with a range of some dominated pairs, a fair amount of nutted hands, some draws and very little air, or he'll fold which isn't so bad cause of dead money in a spot where some scare cards can hit

If we call, we keep his range really wide and weak against someone who loves to bluff in position with a lot of money left for him to spew (but not so much that he'll have to overbet or be raised to get it in by the river. Since IMO I don't think the turn will be THAT hard to play (16/48 cards are either diamonds or overcards, but his air range and propensity to bluff and our rquity due to having the backdoor diamond is big enough to call turn bets on diamond turns) we stand to make more by keeping his range wide and letting him spew.

Not bad analysis for being on an iPhone, eh?
Bad post.

WAIT wait...nevermind. Good post. But seriously f that I could never type that out on my iTouch.