SC in multiway 3bet pot

[Viscaro]

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($49.50)
UTG+1 ($37.47)
CO ($6)
Hero ($30.79)
SB ($24.95)
BB ($44.51)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.85, SB raises to $3.75, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2.80, Hero calls $2.80

Flop: ($11.20, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, hero??

SB is 16/6/3 with 6% (50 hands) 3bet UTG+1 is 34/26/2 7% 3bet, 44% fold to 3bet (217 hands)

I reasoned 9Ts would play decent multiway, trying to flop 2 pair or a good draw so called closing the action and getting ~3:1.

Flop is ok for my hand after both players check to me I feel like I have the best hand a decent % because AAKKQQ would almost always cbet, as would JJTT some %. Also, I heavily discount utg+1 having a big pair here, but he could easily have JJ/TT. I think SB is giving up with a bluff or AK a ton.

I really want to bet but I'm not sure what sizing is optimal here. Thoughts?

[StarGrinder]

Um... fold preflop? Your SPR is atrocious for a SC going in to the flop.

[Viscaro]

Um... fold preflop? Your SPR is atrocious for a SC going in to the flop.

Can you explain what kind of threshold SPR I'd need in this spot please? I'm not great in these spots. I know its any easy fold HU but I'm not sure for 3way. Also any thoughts on flop betting?

[daviddem]

Your call is $2.8 and you play against stacks of $28 or less, so at best a stack to call ratio of 10. This is not enough at all because you need a lot of implied odds to play SC's profitably (barring the times you bluff with them, which is pretty much out of the question here).

I think you need even more implied odds for SC's than for small pairs looking to hit a set (15 to 20 stack to call ratio), although they play better post flop.

As played, I check the flop behind with a hand that has good showdown value. I certainly wouldn't want to be check raised here. The flop is super dry, not many worse hands call or better hands fold so there is not much reason to bet.

[Carroters]

If you get c/r it's almost always by a better hand. Protection is actually very relevant here given how frequently there are 3 or 4 over cards all folding the flop. B/F like 4.50, claim 100% of the pot and aviod the chance to make turn mistakes if one of them bets.

Fold pre.

[StarGrinder]

Agree with Carroters on the bet. You got yourself in to that mess, if you could take it down with a smallish flop bet then hooray for seeking out the fit and folders.

But that's not really the issue with this hand. It's calling pre. You can flat this from the button HU depending on the preflop raiser when you consider his opening range and post-flop tendencies.

Calling the 3bet is a huge leak. Sure, you have position, but you don't have nearly the implied odds to be seeing a flop with T9s. With a low SPR, you're not going to have much wiggle room in terms of flop play (see hand in OP). You're bleeding money.

You want a very high SPR with SC's, which is why it's profitable to limp behind with them rather than auto-isolating a bunch of limpers, and possibly bloating the pot out of control. If you're looking for a number, I'd say you should be looking for an SPR of at least 15.

If you're playing super deep stack poker (like where they buyin on HSP for like 1000bbs) then you'd have a case for calling the 3bet in this spot. But it's still really marginal.

[Viscaro]

I've done some research on it and I'm happy with my preflop call now after reading this thread on 2+2
The 2+2 Forum Archives: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)
tl;dr you can use the 5/10 rule IP with suited connectors. And thats for HU so with the multiway pot its an ez call. You have about a 12.5% chance of flopping a 12+ outer or 2pair +.
I'd reccommend reading the whole thread its very good stuff.

[daven]

the first call pre is only really ok if blinds are passive fish, especially bb. Fold to the 3b pre and it's not even close.
As played it's super-easy bet-fold about $6 repping die Damen

as for having done research - you should probably try and explain why your calls are both good now, you'll learn a whole bunch more that way. Like, if you understand what you read then the explanation will be easy. It may also prevent you spewing a whole bunch of money with scs over the next 100k hands...

[Viscaro]

Ok here goes then. Assuming a stacking off rate of 50%...

5.6% of the time we flop a monstro with 90% equity
6.9% of the time we flop a 12+ draw with 50% equity
0.056*0.9*0.5= 0.0252
+
0.069*0.5*0.5= 0.014
= 0.0392
or ~4% expectation of effective stacks

BUT we can also continue alot with our smaller draws ie oesd or fd. Odds for that is ~19.1%. Taking out the combo draws we've already counted thats 19.1%-6.9%= 12.2% with ~35% equity.
0.122*0.35*0.5= 0.02135 or ~2% expectation of effective stacks

Adding these its clear we have a ~6% overall expectation of effective stacks.

Obviously now we need to adjust these figures for position, as clearly we will be able to extract more of the effective stack IP, and less of it OOP. Being conservative lets say your 25% more effective at getting stacks IP and 25% less effective OOP.

Thats ~7.5% expectation IP and ~4.5% OOP

I'm being asked to call $2.8 for access to an effective $24.95 stack
thats 2.8/24.95=~11.2%
So if we were HU here this would be a clear fold.
But there is another stack involved too. Since the other guy covers me the effective stack is $30.79
thats 2.8/30.79*100=~9.1%
So even 120bb deep its still a fold if we were HU vs this guy.

But what about my hand where I'm playing both at once? Well it seems obvious that we need to get to (11.2+9.1)/2=~10% expectation. We already have 7.5% so basically we need the 2nd player to have a stack off rate of at least 1/3 the first player (1/3 of 7.5% would be 2.5%, adding to get 10%).
So we look at his stats. He seems quite loose so its reasonable to assume hes going to be stacking off at least that often.

And remember we haven't even counted the times we make a pair and take down the pot with it! (As this is what happened in my specific hand I have to assume it happens a non trivial amount of the time, more often as villains 3bet range gets wider)

Feel free to check my maths or assumptions.

[Icanhastreebet]

wat

[Micro2Macro]

you are forgetting the times utg1 4bets and you have to fold

[Viscaro]

you are forgetting the times utg1 4bets and you have to fold

I'm last to act, he's already acted (he flats the 3bet).

Daven, after doing this analysis I do feel it is quite close, but I think it is marginally +ev to make this call.
I don't think my calculations only work when he has aces, in fact I think he will be stacking off alot more than 50% with aces. The reason I use 50% is because this is what is used for the 5/10 set rule. I found this post on the 3rd page of the 2+2 thread

Jouster777[/B]]I used the 5/10 rule in the set mining situation as a benchmark to what % of villain’s stack we should expect to capture (on average) when we flop a big made hand. We will flop a set = 11.8%, and need to call less than 7.5% of avg. villain’s stack/avg. situation to merit a call. If this is a EV neutral situation then: EV=0=.118*(.075S+I)-.882*(0.075S)
Where S=effective stack size, I = implied money to be added to pot
This leads to: I=.49S…so our expectation when we hit a set is to capture 50% of villain’s stack

For anyone that is unfamilar with the 5/10 rule, it states that we can call anything below 5% of effective stack very easily, we should always fold if its above 10%, and anything inbetween depends on reads on villain and position. This applies to pocket pairs in a set mining situation.

I reccommend reading the 2+2 thread up till at least page 4.

[daven]

Daven, after doing this analysis I do feel it is quite close, but I think it is marginally +ev to make this call.
I don't think my calculations only work when he has aces, in fact I think he will be stacking off alot more than 50% with aces. The reason I use 50% is because this is what is used for the 5/10 set rule. I found this post on the 3rd page of the 2+2 thread

so, say he has AA and is stacking off 65% (sometimes against your flush and you aren't even huge favourite then), KK and is stacking off on non-ace high boards only, AK and will be hesitant to stack off (especially 3-way), etc, and 50% is still incredibly optimistic. Sure, use it if you want cos they did in that thread and it makes maths easier and poor play easier to justify - but do it critically rather than blindly.

For anyone that is unfamilar with the 5/10 rule, it states that we can call anything below 5% of effective stack very easily, we should always fold if its above 10%, and anything inbetween depends on reads on villain and position. This applies to pocket pairs in a set mining situation.

I reccommend reading the 2+2 thread up till at least page 4.

someone want to link the old/new set mining stack-size thread = consensus ends up that calling a raise for set mining really is pretty bad unless you're calling like 1/15 of villain's stack = cos fuck, take your typicaly 16-12 MP open range and really how often are they stacking off behind?

also - most of the people responding have read the thread you linked, and discounted the stuff that is less relevant now than it used to be.

[Viscaro]

so, say he has AA and is stacking off 65% (sometimes against your flush and you aren't even huge favourite then), KK and is stacking off on non-ace high boards only, AK and will be hesitant to stack off (especially 3-way), etc, and 50% is still incredibly optimistic. Sure, use it if you want cos they did in that thread and it makes maths easier and poor play easier to justify - but do it critically rather than blindly.
.

I'd like to point out the 50% stacking off rate actually means on average we get half of his stack, not that he puts his whole stack in 50% of the time. The maths wouldn't work. If he calls a hpsb on the flop he already has over 30% ((3.75+5.60)/24.95=0.375 or 37.5%) of the effective stack committed. If AK hits top top on the flop he's likely going to at least cbet this much. At these stakes villains find it hard to get away from top top with so much already committed. Even KK will likely call a hpsb if an ace hits. It's not hard to see us easily getting 50% on average against a tight range.

people always think they're better at semi-bluffing than they really are - cos they suck at estimating fold equity and ranges with any accuracy. How are you planning to play QJ7 with a flush draw vs huge heat on that board?
noting that utg+1's range has so much QQ and serious heat often leaves us with heavily discounted equity on our draws..

With the dead money in the pot we can profitably get it in even against a range of AKdd JJ-QQ, AA. If be serious heat you mean multiway action thats even better for us.

I think it's pretty clear that flatting flop bets here with bear flushdraws is going to be way better than semi bluffing due to how little FE we have should someone willingly bet these boards given ranges/preflop action etc etc.

This is obvious as often we will have almost direct odds to draw to hit the turn. I was simply stating that if villains range is wider semi bluffing and one pair hands are more profitable, ie the possibility that villains squeezing light is not a reason to fold pre.

[daven]

I'd like to point out the 50% stacking off rate actually means on average we get half of his stack, not that he puts his whole stack in 50% of the time. The maths wouldn't work.

cheers dude....

If he calls a hpsb on the flop he already has over 30% ((3.75+5.60)/24.95=0.375 or 37.5%) of the effective stack committed. If AK hits top top on the flop he's likely going to at least cbet this much. At these stakes villains find it hard to get away from top top with so much already committed. Even KK will likely call a hpsb if an ace hits. It's not hard to see us easily getting 50% on average against a tight range.

thing is, we don't have fold equity when we raise here, and, wow, awesome, we get it in 35% or something. Loving that shit. Thread has been valuable though. Nice.

With the dead money in the pot we can profitably get it in even against a range of AKdd JJ-QQ, AA. If be serious heat you mean multiway action thats even better for us.

lol serious heat means sets and dominating draws... sounds great with our draws.

[Icanhastreebet]

Too bad the 5/10 rule fucking blows because it's 2010 and not 2007. in b4 you became one of the horrible 100nl regs setmining every 3b.

[Icanhastreebet]

Also even if the call is slightly +eV, you suck postflop so what's the point?
Not trying to be a dbag when I say that btw, you're just gonna put yourself in horrible spots a lot if you keep trying to make marginal calls pre(good way to improve but also a good way to get very frustrated very quickly)

[Viscaro]

Too bad the 5/10 rule fucking blows because it's 2010 and not 2007. in b4 you became one of the horrible 100nl regs setmining every 3b.

I'd like to hear more on the 5/10 rule been outdated. Is this because villains are less likely to go broke with top pair type hands? Doesn't that give us more value when we flop an 8 or 9 out draw that we can semibluff?

As for sucking postflop, I'm hardly going to get better by nitfolding +ev spots, am I?


Also its 2011 now, welcome to the future!

[StarGrinder]

lol @ yawwn

So what are you doing here when the flop is AK5dd and either villain pots the flop? Is it +EV then?

[Viscaro]

lol @ yawwn

So what are you doing here when the flop is AK5dd and either villain pots the flop? Is it +EV then?

No obviously not. Have you got a point to make? Do you think this case where the flop nails villains range and he leads out for a psb happens a statistally significant %? How would you revise the figures?

[StarGrinder]

No obviously not. Have you got a point to make? Do you think this case where the flop nails villains range and he leads out for a psb happens a statistally significant %? How would you revise the figures?

Ok, considering the pot size, how about 1/2 psb then? SPR is still terrible for a drawing hand so the best you can hope for is to flop the nuts, or two pair/trips, which I believe is roughly 2% odds respectively.

Also, with your calculations, you're giving villains extremely strong ranges - like AA and KK only - and expect them to stack off when you do flop a big hand. That's pretty optimistic on both ends.

The point is you cannot draw profitably, case in point - you're folding to a psb on the flop. If this is not a 3bet pot, you have a lot more room to play with and calling a psb to draw doesn't seem all the bad now.

At least you have position in this hand, and hopefully villains had AK and 33 and X/F'd. But the results are pretty much pointless so w/e.

[Carroters]

Ok, considering the pot size, how about 1/2 psb then? SPR is still terrible for a drawing hand so the best you can hope for is to flop the nuts, or two pair/trips, which I believe is roughly 2% odds respectively.

Also, with your calculations, you're giving villains extremely strong ranges - like AA and KK only - and expect them to stack off when you do flop a big hand. That's pretty optimistic on both ends.

The point is you cannot draw profitably, case in point - you're folding to a psb on the flop. If this is not a 3bet pot, you have a lot more room to play with and calling a psb to draw doesn't seem all the bad now.

At least you have position in this hand, and hopefully villains had AK and 33 and X/F'd. But the results are pretty much pointless so w/e.

If you say SPR one more god damn time Im'a come to your house and hack away all your interwebs cables.

[daven]

I'd like to hear more on the 5/10 rule been outdated. Is this because villains are less likely to go broke with top pair type hands? Doesn't that give us more value when we flop an 8 or 9 out draw that we can semibluff?

As for sucking postflop, I'm hardly going to get better by nitfolding +ev spots, am I?

people always think they're better at semi-bluffing than they really are - cos they suck at estimating fold equity and ranges with any accuracy. How are you planning to play QJ7 with a flush draw vs huge heat on that board?
noting that utg+1's range has so much QQ and serious heat often leaves us with heavily discounted equity on our draws..

[Carroters]

I think it's pretty clear that flatting flop bets here with bear flushdraws is going to be way better than semi bluffing due to how little FE we have should someone willingly bet these boards given ranges/preflop action etc etc.

A lot of the time you wont get to realise your full equity because you wont get the odds to call a turn shove/bet with your weaker draws. This is somewhat made up for by the fact you'll get the remainder of his stack when you do turn a flush all the time, but yeah, these draws that aren't strong enough to willingly felt with 0 FE become pretty bad postflop here. I mean don't get me wrong, it wont be hugely losing to felt them due to dead money, but with only 30ish% equity (overpairs have flush blockers/redraws 50% of the time and higher flushdraws crush you) it's going to be losing unless you have fold equity which you just wont.

I don't think your flat pre is going to be a huge mistake but I still think a fold is better all things considered.

[Icanhastreebet]

yes 5/10 rule is outdated because villains don't go broke w/ top pairs and it doesn't really add value to your draws 8/9 outers because villains have more reason to go broke when you have those. It's more like the 4/8 rule now if I had to take a guess.

[Icanhastreebet]

this thread is boring make something new and exciting

[daviddem]

It's more like the 4/8 rule now if I had to take a guess.

Would you widen that a bit in multiway situations?

[Shotglass]

I'll chime in my $0.02. Folding pre makes the most sense. Calling the UTG+1's open was cool. You have decent odds and a decent SPR (sorry carroters). The SB's raise from oop is a fold. He's

16/6/3 with 6% (50 hands) 3bet

, drastically changed your odds and oop. Sounds to me like your sc's are not worth the risk.

[Carroters]

If villains squeezing range is light it is way more of a reason to fold pre. The equity we make with marginal draws is still meh and our implied odds and stack off % are cut considerably in this case. It being multiway we still wont have heaps of FE even if his range is wide and will still likely have to play draws in this same way a lot of the time. You make his squeeze range light, then you desimate his stack off % and your preflop play is definitely bad and in no way compnesated by having slightly more EV when you flop meh draws.

If he's super light like say BB Vs BU and it's HU then calling is going to be good often, but for totally different reasons, namely you'll have lots of FE post flop and can make his life hell with this hand given his weakish range.

[Carroters]

One pair hands 3 ways here when you have T high are still going to suck balls in a squuezed pot here and you will very frequently be in bad shape with them should anyone else put money in the pot postflop.

If we're deeper it'll be fine, but this sort of SPR without much post flop FE in a spot where one pair is still going to play really meh is sucky as hell for your hand and gets worse as your implied odds get worse (his stack % goes down) because yeah you're over estimating how +EV flopping 1 pair and meh draws is going to be in a 3 way squeezed pot with these stacks and such preflop inflation (high SPR)

[Carroters]

I'm a little sad you've missed the entire point of my post as shown by your first two sentences above demonstrating exactly what I'm talking about.

Of course you should question advice, you should never accept anything blindly. Maths unfortunately doesn't actually back things up here even close to fully when there are so many other factors to consdier when piecing everything together, as there so often will be in poker. A lot of valuable stuff is distorted from up there on the high horse, I've been there myself and am honestly just trying to save you a lot of time.

I wont post in anymore of your threads since I'm obviously wasting my time until you figure this out on your own.

[Viscaro]

Of course you should question advice, you should never accept anything blindly.

Well I'm glad we agree on something. Here's some advice for you, I really think it will help you as a person and as a coach.

Don't be so patronising all the time

[Carroters]

Well I'm glad we agree on something. Here's some advice for you, I really think it will help you as a person and as a coach.

Don't be so patronising all the time

I see newer players as little children, the acorns of the poker world. What comes across as patronising to you is possibly my parental desire to nourish these buds. In life you're an adult who is treated like one, in here you're a poker 5 year old and will be treated as such when you get cranky and misbehave. I'm just one of the team of babysitters, thankfully we have a well behaved bunch on the whole here in the BC, but I guess there'll always be trouble makers. The gifted kids get bored most easily though, so like I say, it can be a good thing to have spirit....nam sayin'?

[couriermike]

This is probably the only poker forum where higher stakes players like micro2macro and carroters will regularly post in microstakes threads. That's pretty valuable. There's also alot of players who have beaten the micros and are moving up, like daven, donachello, and probably alot more I'm unaware of, who's advice is exactly what you're looking for in a forum.

I haven't really followed the hand analysis, but I like a small b/f otf like carroters said. As far as calling the 3-bet I'd like it alot better if you were much deeper like implied odds of at least 20:1 or so.

[Viscaro]

This is probably the only poker forum where higher stakes players like micro2macro and carroters will regularly post in microstakes threads. That's pretty valuable. There's also alot of players who have beaten the micros and are moving up, like daven, donachello, and probably alot more I'm unaware of, who's advice is exactly what you're looking for in a forum.

I haven't really followed the hand analysis, but I like a small b/f otf like carroters said. As far as calling the 3-bet I'd like it alot better if you were much deeper like implied odds of at least 20:1 or so.

Thanks couriermike, I ended up betting $4. I'm grateful for everyone for posting in this thread, it has helped me look at suited connectors in a whole new light. What I thought was an easy call before I now realise is very close to neutral EV. Having people back up my idea about bet sizing has also helped my confidence.
Carroters, I'm sure your attempts to talk to me about ego and high horses were just misunderstood. I guess this was your own experience and you thought I might be a kindred spirit. Sorry if I was too harsh on you.

[Shotglass]

you're a poker 5 year old

Well... I'm probably going through the 'terrible two's'

[PokerWiz]

Wow. This was informative. Thanks for the teaching guys!